Risers From NFL OTAs For Fantasy Football: Buy The Dip On Brian Thomas Jr.
Justin Carlucci breaks down two of the biggest fantasy football risers over the last week and a half from NFL OTAs.
The early-summer buzz is building as NFL OTAs roll on, and we’re already seeing the drumbeat start for a few potential fantasy football league winners. Two receivers in the AFC South have been standing out in June so far. Brian Thomas Jr. and Carnell Tate are earning rave reviews, and their prices are starting to matter. Let’s dig into what each player offers for 2026 and whether their current costs make sense.
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Brian Thomas Jr.: Buying The Dip
Brian Thomas Jr. was one of the premier breakout bets in 2025. He was an early-round target in standard and best ball drafts after he lit the league on fire as a rookie. BTJ posted 87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns on 133 targets in 17 games in 2024, which put him firmly on the WR1 radar.
But when the dust settled last season, Thomas was one of the worst picks at face value. Thomas slid to just 90 targets for 707 yards and two scores in 14 games during 2025. The sophomore receiver played in three fewer games but still didn’t receive the same per-game usage as he did in 2024.
Parker Washington exploded down the stretch and tallied nearly 1,200 air yards, while midseason addition Jakobi Meyers siphoned volume and Travis Hunter mixed in early to crowd the room. None of that helped BTJ’s cause.
Meanwhile, some of the under-the-hood metrics still look like something we want to bet on. Thomas led the Jaguars with 1,254 air yards last season, confirming the team continued to treat him as a vertical focal point even during a “down” year. He posted a positive separation score against man coverage, and he also drew 23 deep targets, which could still play beautifully in best ball formats.
Jacksonville finished with a top-10 neutral pass rate last season, which is another good sign. During OTAs, Jaguars’ head coach Liam Coen praised Thomas’ early performance.
“Having a great attitude, after every play communication with either myself or Trevor or EB or Grant (Udinski), and then making the plays—that is something you cannot simulate in routes on air … the confidence of the connection and chemistry that they’re building, that’s real,” Coen said.
The market is finally more reasonable. Our fantasy football ADP tool has Thomas sitting around WR32, typically going just a few spots ahead of Washington across major platforms. On Underdog, he’s hovering near pick 63, which is a sixth-round price tag that no longer carries WR1 expectations.
Carnell Tate: The Alpha Cam Ward Needs
Tennessee was one of the earlier teams to begin OTAs, and it didn’t take the No. 4 overall pick long to catch national attention. Since this is my first OTA update, I’d be remiss if I didn’t highlight him.
Local and national media highlighted him winning tough contested balls and flashing the one-handed grabs just like he did at Ohio State. Titans’ linebacker Cedric Gray has already labeled him “the truth,” and multiple team beat writers have emphasized how dominant he’s been when on the field.
Easton Freeze of A to Z Sports summed it up perfectly. “I’d say he can’t keep getting away with this, but you kind of drafted him because he can keep getting away with this.”
Tate did recently miss practice, but local coverage has downplayed any concern and instead continued to stress that he has looked “better than advertised” when he’s participated.
Quarterback Cam Ward’s perspective is just as important. Titans’ coverage noted Ward’s comments that Tate will have the freedom to “freelance” in Brian Daboll’s offense, the kind of controlled chaos that plays into Ward’s strength as an off-script creator.
The Titans desperately need a true target earner, and Tate is the clear favorite to assume that role from the jump. You don’t take a receiver fourth overall just to park him as a complementary piece, and everything from practice reports to teammate quotes suggests he’s already operating like a featured option.
Tennessee’s neutral pass rate is a good bet to climb under Daboll. The entire fantasy football world hopes the new OC can help unlock Ward’s ability to extend plays and play a sandlot style when things break down.
And hopefully Ward can harness that energy and instinct toward the Josh Allen end of the spectrum rather than the Will Levis world of poor ad‑lib decision‑making. I keep coming back to Ward’s controversial quote from last season.
“I’m not playing how I want to play right now. So, once I play how I want to play, I think the league will be f–ked,” Ward said via The Athletic’s Michael Silver. Was that a shot fired at Brian Callahn and company? I think so!
I believe the Titans will win more games than their projected Vegas win total. But if you think they’ll fall short, you get the negative game-script angle with Ward aggressively throwing from behind, and why wouldn’t it be to Tate?
Tate is still very fairly priced. ADP shows Tate at 59 overall on Underdog, which puts him in the fifth round. However, Tate’s price could snowball out of control if he continues to put on a show, and that’s why we start our portfolios early in the summer! Our fantasy football projections have him around 900-plus yards and five touchdowns. Personally, I think there is a ton of room to grow there.
Both Thomas and Tate will go head-to-head at least twice this season, and I’ll get my popcorn ready for those Titans vs. Jaguars matchups. I’m buying both receivers at cost right now because I certainly don’t want to chase inflated prices when August rolls around.
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