Round 2 Fantasy Football Sleepers and Fades

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter:

As my wife can attest, I'm wrong a lot. Utterances heard in my house, just this week: "Let's just paint over that wallpaper," and "I didn't know she was your sister!"

Fortunately, my wife doesn't follow my fantasy advice, because my already-murky favorability ranking would go down even more. At this time last year, I was fretting that Saquon Barkley couldn't get to double-digit touchdowns with Jalen Hurts stealing all the shorties. Dumbass.

We’re Doing Round 2 Wrong

So, maybe I'm not the best guy to point fingers at other people's miscalculations. But, then again, it sure looks like you're all messing up the second round of this year's drafts, specifically at the running back position.

I'm going to make a case that every Round 2 running back is being misdrafted by a full round. While the paint is drying on my wallpaper, let's dive in.

SEE HOW OUR RANKINGS MATCH UP WITH ADP

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We’re Too Low On These Round 2 RBs

2.03 BAL RB Derrick Henry—Should go: Round 1
Henry in the second round? Sheesh, you're a tough crowd. For seven straight seasons, since taking Tennessee's starting job from DeMarco Murray, nobody has regretted drafting Derrick Henry. Fantasy managers complain constantly. But have you ever heard an anguished fantasy manager bemoan, "I never should have drafted Derrick Henry that high?”

Of course not.

Sure, he's got PPR limitations, but who else has potential for 20 rushing touchdowns? If I asked you to predict the 2025 NFL rushing touchdown leader, Henry would be the first name out of your mouth.

You already know Henry was awesome last year, ranking as RB1 in standard scoring, RB3 in half-PPR, and RB4 in PPR fantasy points.

The Ravens return four of five of last year's starters on their offensive line, including re-signing longtime right tackle Ronnie Staley.

2.10 TB RB Bucky Irving—Should go: Round 1
In a moment, I'm going to give you an audacious statement you won't read anywhere else. And for the sake of putting my ass on the line, I'm not going to couch it with words like "might" or "maybe" or "could." Here we go: Bucky Irving is the most talented runner in the league. I know, I know, this sounds like a classic offseason "hot take." So, I'll let the metrics speak for themselves, and you can decide if I'm just working through.

Check out his 2024 rankings among runners with at least 150 carries:

Yards after contact: 1st (4.0)
Avoided tackle rate: 3rd (27.5%)
Yards per carry: 4th (5.4)
Third-down conversion rate: 1st (80%)
Rushing yards over expectation: 3rd (.94)
PFF receiving grade: 2nd (90.3)

Not only is Bucky terrific, but the whole Bucs offense is tremendously potent. New offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard inherits an offense that finished fourth in points scored and returns all 11 starters.

2.11 IND RB Jonathan Taylor—Should go: Round 1
If I'm being honest, I probably wouldn't take Jonathan Taylor in the first round, but I certainly would take him earlier than the 21st player off the board. But, for the sake of maintaining the theme of this story, I'll list him as a "Round 1" player.

There are plenty of question marks around the Indianapolis offense, but not for JT. He's one of the league's most reliable workhorses, with a staggering 82% snap share and 75% attempt share last season. And that shouldn't change in 2025. The coach with the best name in the NFL, Jim Bob Cooter, remains the offensive coordinator, and Shane Steichen retains playcalling duties. In the offseason, the team added only DJ Giddens, a 5th-rounder who doesn't project to be more than a role player behind Taylor.

2.12 GB RB Josh Jacobs—Should go: Round 1
Over the final 11 games of 2024, Josh Jacobs was PPR RB4, yet he's not being taken until the 19th pick. Workhorse backs on good offenses are rare and valuable. Especially talented backs, like Jacobs.

What's not to like about Jacobs' upcoming season? The Packers offense should be better, especially across the offensive line. The Packers signed Aaron Banks to play left guard, adding physicality to the line. Elite lineman Elgton Jenkins is expected to shift to center, replacing Josh Myers.

Jacobs' contract has no guaranteed money after this year, so the Packers could grind him up with another very heavy workload, like last year's 337 touches.

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We’re Too High On These Round 2 RBs

2.02 SF RB Christian McCaffrey – Should go: Round 3
I don't enjoy typing bad things about Christian McCaffrey. Everyone hopes he returns to greatness again this year. But, the 14th overall pick is far too expensive to pay for someone with his laundry list of concerns.

And as you know, he's had a litany of injuries that have sidelined him for massive swaths of the 2020, 2021, and 2024 seasons. Most recently, he's coming off double bilateral Achilles tendonitis, an injury that can recur, especially in athletes who can't afford to rest during the season. He's 28 years old, which isn't awful, but his 1,871 touches is a lot. With rare exception, the NFL is a young man's game, cruelly so.

The return of Trent Williams helps an offensive line that regressed last year, slumping to 24th in Run Block Win Rate. Even so, Williams is 36 years old, and presumably at the very end of his productive playing days.

2.07 MIA RB De'Von Achane—Should go: Round 3
At this time last year, one of the hottest offseason topics was whether Achane would stay healthy or succumb to the same litany of injuries that he'd suffered in college and as a rookie. He bucked trends and played the full 2024 season. Hopefully that's repeatable, but it seems unlikely. If history is any indicator, he'll miss significant time again this year.

Healthy last year, he doubled his workload, but his explosive run rate—his signature plays—dropped in half, from 8.7% to 4.4%.

His dip in efficiency could be reasonably attributed to overuse, and head coach Mike McDaniel could pull back Achane's volume significantly.

Miami's offensive line was bad last year and the loss of PFF's third-ranked tackle, Terron Armstead, could be a crippling blow. In PFF's run blocking ranking, the Dolphins were 28th, and in ESPN's Run Block Win Rate, they ranked 26th. The addition of G James Daniels will help, but Miami's line is probably a multi-year rebuild project.

McDaniel could shift goal-line work to the more physical Ollie Gordon, a rookie who clocks in at 6-foot-2, 225 pounds. In Achane's two seasons, he's scored just six times on 19 carries from inside the 5-yard line. He's simply not built for goal-line work. ⬇️

CMC’S PROJECTIONS HAVE HIM GOING FOR …

Fantasy Football News Spin: Please Don’t Do It Saquon

Saquon Barkley has been getting comped to Barry Sanders since his Penn State days. His explosiveness and ability to turn seemingly no-gainers into 75-yard TD runs is just one way. Saquon following Barry into the 2,000-yard club is another. Barry retired quietly at age 30. Could Saquon follow suit?

Kendall Valenzuela tackles this week’s NFL headlines, including Saquon’s potential end game. There is also a WR re-signing in Baltimore, and could he be fantasy-viable if we’re following the money? And Josh Jacobs laments possibly leaving some meat on the bone in 2024. Could he eat some more in 2025? Kendall’s latest is right here. ⬇️

ANOTHER GEAR FOR THE GREEN BAY OFFENSE

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