Let’s get these last couple of wins, people! 

Much love from Coach Gene and Big John to all of you and yours this Thanksgiving. Have a safe holiday, and thanks for reading all season. I say call someone you miss or even dare to mend a bridge this weekend—you'll thank me you did. 

RELATED: Pair these start/sit recommendations with our fantasy football start/sit tool, presented by Xfinity!

Start These Players In Week 13

Tyler Shough, QB, NO

LAGHEZZA: Never wrong, just early. My love for New Orleans’ rookie QB Tyler Shough hasn’t translated into fantasy points yet—but it’s coming. For starters, in a game centered around opportunities, Shough’s giving GMs a fair shot as long as he's dropping back 40 times plus protecting the football.

Again, the fantasy results lack high-end returns so far, having thrown just two total touchdowns. However, pop the hood and it’s honestly encouraging without a misframe or squint: +0.17 EPA/attempt, 70.0% completion rate, 33.1% first down/attempt. Those stats will play. In fact, I’d argue that despite a smallish sample, he’s playing a more complete game than fellow first-year counterparts Cam Ward and J.J. McCarthy.

New Orleans travels to sunny South Florida to face the four-win Dolphins on Sunday. Miami’s coming off the bye—though that week off’s not quite long enough to rejuvenate a secondary missing more than half its starters to the IR.

Few teams struggle defending aerials efficiently more than MIA, bottom-five on the season in average time of possession/drive (3:15), explosive play rate allowed (13.6%), EPA/dropback (-0.22), opposer passer rating (109.5), completion rate (72.9%), interceptions (3) and passes defended (27). Yeah, not great.

Alvin Kamara’s out, and it’s possible Kellen Moore abandons the run before the first whistle blows. Shough even took off seven times last weekend—if it’s going to happen this season, it happens Sunday.

Pat Bryant, DEN, WR

LAGHEZZA: So many rosters and schemes are solidified this deep into the season, finding true diamonds in the fantasy rough borders on impossible. Then, if you actually manage to uncover someone checking boxes for a potential breakout, it still takes courage to roll him out there in a high-leverage spot.

(In case you couldn’t tell, I’m talking to myself here. One team in particular needs a win in which Chimere Dike’s been dragging its carcass to the finish line.)

Denver’s eight-game win streak is doing the work of too much cologne for this offense over the last month. How does bottom-five in EPA/play (-0.16) and dead last in first downs/drive (1.1) sound? Yikes! This is the AFC’s No. 2 seed if the season ended today, we’re talking about. A change is gonna come.

Can I perhaps interest you in a post-bye rookie bump? Enter Pat Bryant, Denver’s third-round pick out of Illinois, recently emerging as the Broncos’ new big slot man. It would’ve been impossible to describe the ball of spaghetti that was DEN’s slot usage to date in this chart—so here, check it out for yourself. Bryant’s chart is easily the most bullish.

Yes, Pat Bryant’s still being omitted from 3-WR sets, but I’m not worried for flex consideration. Sean Payton runs 11-personnel at a +63% clip, and Bryant runs the second-most 3-WR routes on the team—translating into over two yards per route run since the takeover. Keep that pace up, and a boom game’s coming. 

Oh yeah, Bryant’s facing a decimated Washington secondary Sunday, currently dead last this month in EPA/dropback (-0.55) and receiving yards allowed per game to the slot in 2025 (101.1). Denver’s roller coaster season is heading up the ramp.

Bold Starts For Week 13 Fantasy Football

Isaiah Hodgins, WR, NYG

CLEMONS: It does not matter if the team sticks with Jameis Winston or they go back to Jaxson Dart; they've both seen Hodgins do work and he seems to be getting more and more comfortable in this offense and what role he needs to play for team success. Since joining the team two weeks ago, Hodgins has averaged six targets per game. He hauled in five for 57 yards in week 11, and last week he caught two passes for 42 yards and a touchdown.

At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, he's been the big body receiver this offense was missing. They can't possibly keep throwing all of these passes to Wan'Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton is clearly playing hurt while both tight ends are a little compromised. Hodgins is a fresh body that is motivated by his desire to cement a position on the roster next season.

Sit These Players In Week 13

Javonte Williams, RB, DAL

LAGHEZZA: What’s the opposite of striking while the iron’s hot? That’s precisely how I feel about fantasy’s RB8, Javonte Williams. Right here is my proof positive volume drives overall totals, hypnotizing fantasy managers at points. 

Dallas’ lead back is still being started almost universally despite heading for a fourth straight RB3 finish, behind Ty Johnson and Devin Singletary during that span. The carries may be there, but the explosive plays and catches are not. Now, combine Dallas’ elevated +55% pass rate in goal-to-go situations, and you can see Javonte’s floor lowering every sentence.

Kansas City’s stacked front seven is allowing just 66 rushing yards per game for the last month and a half, leading the NFL in yards allowed after contact per rush in that timeframe. The combination of George Karlaftis, Nick Bolton and Chris Jones is for real—they’ve now kept 11 of 12 RBs under 88 yards, including bottling fantasy MVP Jonathan Taylor last Sunday.

Bold Sits For Week 13 Fantasy Football

Rome Odunze, WR, CHI

CLEMONS: Odunze seems to be currently living off what he did over the first four weeks. That was when he had four straight weeks of top-20 performances. Over the next seven weeks, he had a WR10 and WR11 finish, but the other five weeks have been WR40 or worse. That includes a goose egg in Week 9.

The team has leaned into the run game, and Caleb Williams has spread the ball around more, which has led to inconsistencies in the performances of his pass catchers, Odunze specifically. Do you want to start him only to watch DJ Moore score two touchdowns? I do not.

All Of The Commanders WRs

CLEMONS: The Commanders are entering Week 13 off a bye, where players were able to get healthier and refocus for the remainder of the season. Unfortunately for them, they catch the Denver Broncos doing the same thing. They are only allowing 185 yards per game and there's a good chance that the boogeyman is returning to the field. This Denver secondary has been smothering receivers without Pat Surtain, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. With him, it could get spooky for teams, and it probably will for the Commanders receiving corps.

It does not matter how well Deebo Samuel played in Week 11 or that Terry McLaurin has a chance to return on Sunday night. DO NOT WAIT FOR THEM! The Broncos defense is suffocating. They get to the quarterback better than everybody except Myles Garrett—they force them to speed up their internal clock, which causes poor throws or scrambles—either way, the result is bad for fantasy managers. Just let that crew chill this week.

To Start or Sit Shedeur Sanders? Two Sides Of The Argument ...

Start Shedeur Sanders

CLEMONS: There's clearly something not right in the playcalling with the Browns, but there are players who can perform above the playcall, and that has always been a Sanders trait. On paper, you see a QB18 finish. That means poor quarterback play is affecting fantasy managers negatively everywhere.

It also means that Sanders has a floor higher than many give him credit for.

Another week to gel with the receivers and to understand where he is protected will do wonders, and that is before we get to all of the potential fantasy points that were taken from him in the game. His highlight reel pass to Isaiah Bond should have been a touchdown; his pass to Jerry Jeudy should have been as well. Two more touchdowns would have given him a really good day in fantasy. 

I have seen a lot of talk about Sanders' low aDOT and the fact that his touchdown pass was a screen pass completed behind the line of scrimmage. I have heard them blow off his performance because it was the Raiders. All of that is convenient because nobody said that when Drake Maye played them earlier in the season and performed well. Last season, Khalil Shakir had the most ridiculous aDOT I can remember (2.6-2.7), yet he averaged almost 11 yards per reception.

Nobody disqualified Josh Allen; in fact, he gets MVP chants when he throws screen passes or short passes that go for long touchdowns. This matchup against the 49ers could be one that Sanders exploits, especially at the intermediate level with so many people now paying attention to the shallow passes. He will continue to improve and he has a knack for doing big things in moments where people doubt him most. Besides, when did we start caring how the sausage is made? We just want fantasy points.

Sit Shedeur Sanders

LAGHEZZA: Before the true haters overjoy in a good old-fashioned internet dogpile, let me say I actually really like Shedeur Sanders. I hold zero personal qualms with any of the bravado in a postgame interview for a first-start victory most thought could not happen. Some people just attract attention. Even if it’s a shtick, quarterbacks oozing machismo is fine by me—I enjoy it.

Now, finally, to football. For starters, no one should be making any concrete determinations on this tiny sample alone. With that, realistically, Sanders is more likely playing for Cleveland’s backup spot than some decade-long franchise role. Wins are good, but can also happen despite poor play (Myles Garrett and Mason Graham don’t hurt, either).

Sanders deserves credit for making one tremendous throw on the move after forcing a miss, but for my money played right in line with the uninspired data— -0.21 EPA/dropback, 55% completion, 15% off-target, 33% to-the-sticks all scream desperation fill-in to me. More bad than good to me, sorry to say. And it’s not like he’s getting any help from an overly talented WR room or gifted playcaller to be fair.

Shedeur either checked down first or lobbed inaccurate deep shots in an all-or-none approach. Eight of Sanders’ 20 total attempts were at the line of scrimmage or behind, with another half-dozen tries +20-yards downfield (most not even close to catchable besides the aforementioned strike to Isaiah Bond). At least for now, Sanders’ porridge is either too hot or too cold. He’ll need to succeed at intermediate ranges if leveling up is in the cards.

Funny how narratives get spun nowadays to generate reactions. Not sure if you saw this, but ESPN Insights tweeted to its over one million followers, “Shedeur Sanders' 66-yard TD pass was the longest completion by a rookie QB this season”. 

While technically true, social media reacted exactly how you’d expect to a negative five ADoT…

John's Parting Start/Sit Chart For Week 13

Our piece wouldn’t be complete without my favorite research tool—Want to win weekly fantasy matchups? Attach yourself to the highest-scoring game totals …

Please note: The Chart reflects the last six weeks only

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