Steelers Running Back Is Now A Value Play In Fantasy Football 2025

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era:

The NFL Draft always shakes up the entire fantasy snow globe—but as the public is chasing every flake, perhaps the moves not made deserve the most attention.

Addition By Subtraction

One of our many mantras center around WR targets needing to be earned while RB carries get awarded. If that’s true (and I believe it is) then the best place to roster a tailback is on the teams that run the most. No squad better exemplifies the old-fashioned “defense and ground attacks win championships” philosophy than the Pittsburgh Steelers—ranked third for the NFL’s highest rush rate over the last two years (image below, pause for eyerolls).

I’m sure other Jaylen Warren truthers cracked a bottle of bubbly the moment PIT did not re-sign habitual roadblock Najee Harris (so he could go westward to play for Jim Harbaugh and the Bolts). That said, it was still too early to start the real celebration until Mike Tomlin and Omar Khan finalized their first-round selection. So there I sat, head in hands—the Black and Yellow on the clock with the 21st overall pick knowing both Omarion Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson were on the board.

And then it happened … or didn’t happen, I should say. Pittsburgh prioritized the defensive line (shocker) by selecting Derrick Harmon, a DL out of Oregon. That particular non-pick rang out to me as a true vote of confidence in Warren to finally command the lion’s share of backfield touches. While PIT did draft RB Kaleb Johnson in the third (83rd overall), one look at Dwain’s RB Super Model shows an incomplete player with lots of work to do in the passing game (the image below is linked to Dwain’s full model update, btw):

Sure, the total stats won’t be gaudy as Harris soaked up so much volume over the years, but few RBs made more impact than Warren on an efficiency basis; of the 44 RBs with 400+ touches since 2022, he stands out.

0.87 Fantasy points Per Touch: 12th
4.8 Yards Per Rush: T-5th
3.36 Yards After Contact Per Carry: 6th
9.5% Explosive Rush Rate: 6th
15.9% ≤0 Yard Carry Rate: 15th
24.2% Target Per Route Run: 5th
1.40 Yards Per Route Run: 5th

Warren’s already shown the ability to be a difference-maker whenever awarded the opportunity. And this time around, we get to find out how he’ll perform in a lead role without having to pay a premium — he’s currently being drafted as the RB35 (ADP ~93). Despite some environmental QB-related concerns in the Steel City, you can sign me up for that pick in the double-digit rounds every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

And FYI… 👇

WARREN and JOHNSON ARE SO CLOSE IN OUR 2025 RANKS

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The Return of Freedman’s Favorites

One of the most-read columns during the NFL season is Freedman’s Favorites. Sure there are well-thought-out analyses as The Oracle recommends players to start, but there are also the fun pop culture references (a good amount of Harry Potter) and the dry wit.

Freedman is back, and post-NFL Draft he’s updated his rankings — because it’s never too early to look ahead to upcoming fantasy drafts (image below is linked to the column):

What makes his latest article intriguing is that he went up and down the board with players he’s looking to draft at each position early, median, and late in drafts. From the graphic above, you can see what he’s doing at the QB position—and that he hung out with Thor Nystrom a bit during NFL Draft season. Also, make sure to check out Freedman’s NFL Draft Grades from a dynasty lens. The article below offers “why” he liked those QBs, and has a breakdown on the other fantasy-relevant positions. 👇

CHECK OUT FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES HERE

Kittle Stays In SF … And Is MHJ A Post-Hype Sleeper?

Have the 49ers learned a lesson? They approached negotiations with their superstar TE George Kittle much differently than some of his teammates like Nick Bosa and Brandon Aiyuk, who “held in” during training camp before signing extensions in previous offseason. With Kittle, the ink got dry on a four-year extension before the Kentucky Derby, which will not impact his availability for OTAs and training camp.

Kendall Valenzuela ran through the biggest news this week — and what it means for fantasy. She also took a hard look at Marvin Harrison Jr. to see if he might actually be a value pick after what the Cardinals did (not) do during the offseason (NOTE: we hit on Harrison in our “Rankings Roundtable” this week, too). You can also check out our projections to see how the Fantasy Life experts are forecasting these players’ upcoming seasons.