Lots of feedback on last week’s EPA streaming experiment–it’s always funny when things work out so well. Obviously too soon to say the fantasy code’s cracked, but picking the right spots in our inaugural piece could’ve landed you on QB Trevor Lawrence, (220-0-; 9-24-2), RB Kyle Monangai (26-176-0; 3-22-0), WR Olamide Zaccheaus (6-58-1), and TE Colston Loveland (6-118-2) out of nowhere. A little something for everyone.

Hard to lose with the tools we use…

The running theme? Just how strong defensive EPA tested against fantasy points allowed at QB (r=-0.81), RB (r=-0.79), and WR (r=-0.56) compared to a massive dataset. Worth noting the relative weakness in regards to wideouts, which perfectly matches the position’s high variance.

Check out last week’s piece for a brief introduction if it slipped past your research radar. Reminder: Expected Points Per Play uses historical data plus a weighted mix of factors like down, distance, field position and time remaining to quantify a context-aware evaluation of team and player performance. Football’s so contextual, it takes an amalgamated approach like this to capture as much nuance as possible.

RELATED: You know who to stream...but who do you drop? We have suggestions!

We wondered if after seeing such high R scores, it could be as simple as targeting the top of this chart (updated, of course) and working our way down. So far, so good.

Our theory gets pushed to the max this week without the Bengals, Cowboys, or Titans on the schedule—three of the league’s top four streaming targets to pick on.

The Best Streaming QB For Week 10

1. J.J. McCarthy, MIN vs BAL

Ask 10 different analysts for an opinion on Vikings’ rookie QB J.J. McCarthy and get 12 different answers. On one hand, the former No.10 pick is still very green, logging just three total games on his NFL ledger—though boasting two wins to show for it. The bull case revolves around talent plus growth in Kevin O’Connell’s system through continuity and repetition. We’ve seen the glimpses.

Other side of the purple coin and our forecast’s reasonably cooler. MIN’s special teams delivered strong starting field position all day Sunday to boost J.J.’s production, with most coming right up front (5-7, 68 yards, 2 TD). After that early offensive blowup, the Vikings gained a measly 3.4 yards/play from then on out (9-18, 75 yards, 1 INT), with McCarthy responsible for at least a chunk of it (-0.35 EPA/attempt, 50% completion, 4.2 YPA). It wasn’t great.

Granted, Baltimore’s returned a bunch of healthy defensive starters over the last few weeks, but McCarthy’s still the strongest streamer—gives you an idea of how tough matchups are for the available QB pool this week. If anything, Lamar Jackson back under center sends Minnesota a clear message: score big to win. 

Hopefully game script’s enough to push us over the edge.

Fact remains, the jury’s still out and any definitive assertions are being rushed. However, if you missed Sunday’s game the rookie shot-caller showed out (in a non-fantasy manner, but still) in a huge spot late. On 3rd and 5, up 3 points with 90 seconds to go and the game on the line, McCarthy makes a pre-snap shift before dropping a dot to Jalen Nailor up the sideline. That completion sealed the contest and a potential marker of things to come. Takes a lot of confidence in your QB to not run the ball there.

Looking for the best DST streamers? We have you covered here

The Best Streaming RBs For Week 10

1. Dylan Sampson, CLE at NYJ
2. Devin Singletary, NYG at CHI

Similar to rolling out Jacoby Brissett this Monday night against Dallas despite Kyler Murray’s undetermined status, Dylan Sampson’s the epitome of sneaky streamer.

Cleveland’s clear RB1 Quinshon Judkins sprained an AC joint at Foxboro without much fanfare due to the looming bye week. And his return to practice Monday should remove most market pressure for Sampson. We’ve seen this movie a thousand times — practicing is far from a guarantee a player will suit up.

Still rostered in fewer than one-fifth of all leagues, Dylan Sampson in a lead backfield role is fantasy flex-seal for any rosters needing a hole plugged. After Judkins exited versus New England, Sampson commanded all 100% of the Browns’ RB touches, reeling in six balls at a ridiculous 42.9% target per route rate.

Remember, scammed up PPR points count all the same. And when you’re getting every red zone snap against a defense as bad as the Jets, there’s always a chance to fall in the end zone and steal a top-20 positional finish.

In a league where someone stashed Sampson? Hold your nose to start the Giants’ Devin Singletary. I know, sorry in advance. New York’s backfield trended toward a split versus San Francisco anyway after Tyrone Tracy failed to gain +10 yards on any of his dozen touches against Philly. It was subtle, but nothing gets past us.

Tracy limped off the field after a Jaxon Dart scramble midway through the third. He remained in the game, though only touching the ball twice more while getting out-snapped 18-9. Another suboptimal choice, but important teams are off and pickings are slim.

The Best Streaming WRs for Week 10

1. Keon Coleman, BUF at MIA
2. Kalif Raymond, DET at WAS

Look at this list! Man, if these streams splash this weekend, we KNOW we’re onto something big.

What’s a streaming article without picking on the Dolphins, owners of the NFL’s worst explosive play rate allowed? And just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse for the Fins, Miami ships star edge rusher Jaelan Phillips off to Philly for a third round pick in next year’s draft! Hello, bad to worse.

Timing Keon Coleman’s (and every Bills’ pass-catcher’s) production bordered on impossible all season. With that, is it any less less niche than streaming Olamide Zaccheaus? I think not. November makes strange fantasy bedfellows.

Despite some recent disappointment, Coleman’s still the team leader on a plus offense in route participation, air yard share, deep shot attempts, and red zone targets. (looks side-to-side slowly, whispering) He’s due…

Digging even deeper? Detroit’s in a massive bounceback spot against the aging, wounded Commanders, currently tracking towards being one of the NFL’s worst teams. Washington’s allowing over 410 yards per game at just under seven yards per play (!) over the last month—particularly struggling to cover slot WRs (8.0 rec, 107.6 yards, 2.1 TD per game average).

Kalif Raymond’s obviously going to share some of the Lions’ loving underneath with Amon-Ra St.Brown but I’m not too worried—Jared Goff could easily shred this secondary, bringing multiple pieces home with him.

The Best Streaming TE for Week 10

1. Dalton Schultz, HOU at JAX

Notice I didn’t include tight ends correlating to EPA in the introduction. Fittingly weird, the most correlative factor to TE fantasy points per game is… (drum roll) catches allowed per game to the position.

While Green Bay’s technically the worst in the category (7.0 rec/game), Micah Parsons and the Pack face Philadelphia’s universally rostered Dallas Goedart. So next up are the Jaguars (6.9 rec/game), who face Dalton Schultz’s Texans. Far from inspiring, Schultz does lead the team in routes and receptions, helping push him towards two top-6 positional finishes in the last three weeks.