The Bryce Young Experiment Is Over
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Experian, we dive into the fallout of Bryce Young's benching, the top waiver adds for Week 3, utilization, and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Experian:
I joked in my Pick Six column yesterday that we’d stop teasing the Panthers about selecting Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud if they cut their losses with Young and started Andy Dalton.
Apparently, Dave Canales and Co. are big Fantasy Life readers, because that’s exactly what they did yesterday.
It’s somewhat tricky to wrap your head around a team bailing on its 23-year-old first-overall pick two games into his second year. But if you’ve watched any Bryce Young tape then you know that he was not their best path forward in both the short and long term.
In his place steps the 36-year-old Dalton—a journeyman QB with an 83-78 record as a starter. No one will mistake him for a franchise savior, but he gives this offense a significantly better chance at being functional.
There’s a Mendoza Line for backup QBs who can support fantasy production for the other skill players on offense. Young and guys like Zach Wilson are firmly below it, but guys like Dalton and Joe Flacco hover right above it and keep those sweet, sweet fantasy points rolling in.
Diontae Johnson is back on the menu, Xavier Legette is back to being intriguing, and we can return to being excited about Jonathon Brooks’ insertion into the offense.
Read on for Week 2 Utilization takeaways from Dwain, Week 3 waiver adds from Kendall and a heaping portion of “sheesh” from Ian …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: Backfield Replacements in KC and a Surging Offense in NO …
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 3 Waiver Wire Adds
- Watercooler: Injury news
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh of the Week
UTILIZATION REPORT: Week 2 Takeaways
🚑 What should we expect with Isiah Pacheco out?
Pacheco suffered a fractured fibula against the Bengals and will head to IR. He could return this season, but likely at less than 100% thanks to an injury similar to the one that took Mark Andrews two months to return from in 2023, per Deepak Chona, MD.
This is a brutal blow for fantasy managers who spent a Round 2 pick on Pacheco. If you have an IR spot, you can move Pacheco to great; otherwise, you can cut him in most formats. So, what does this mean for the Chiefs backfield?
I expect a committee approach based on what we have seen in the first two games. The team has fed rookie Carson Steele most relief carries (20%) and short-down-distance snaps. Samaje Perine spelled Pacheco on passing downs with a 21% route participation rate, 6% target share, and a 60% snap share on long-down-distance (LDD) situations.
Projected roles for Week 3:
- Carson Steele: 50% attempts, 35% route participation = RB3 territory
- Samaje Perine: 30% attempts, 45% route participation = RB4 territory
- Practice Squad RB (Keaontay Ingram or Emani Bailey): 5-10% attempts
- WRs: 5-10% attempts
While these roles don't look very intriguing, Steele and Perine will have an opportunity to seize more significant shares if they perform well. If either takes control, they offer RB1 upside. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could return as early as Week 5 to muddy the waters further or push for the top spot if they underwhelm. Of course, the team could also sign a veteran.
Steele and Perine are available in over 95% of Yahoo leagues, and both are solid speculative adds in medium-sized and larger formats.
If you play on high-stakes sites like RealTime Sports or the FFPC, I expect these two players to get steamed in FAB due to all the injuries this weekend. I would typically have these guys as 15-25% FAB options, but I suspect 25-50% will be required, so adjust accordingly if you need an RB or flex. Edwards-Helaire is the cheap alternative.
⚜️ The Saints' explosive offense is here to stay under Klint Kubiak.
Scheme matters, and the Saints are living proof. Last season, the Saints were a mediocre offense with one of the most unimaginative schemes in the NFL. That has all changed under the new OC Kubiak's guidance.
2023 vs. 2024
- Yards per play: 5.1 (20th) vs. 6.9 (1st)
- Motion at the snap: 31% (30th) vs. 69% (4th)
- Play action dropbacks: 14% (32nd) vs. 54% (1st)
Why did I include the motion and play-action data? Because they are a crucial element of the Saints' giant leap in yards per play. Motion and play action have been cheat codes over the last three seasons in the NFL.
- Routes with motion at the snap: 55% boost in PPR scoring for WRs
- Routes with play action: 26% boost
- Routes with two WRs: 29% boost
The third bullet is the cherry on top. New Orleans is a highly condensed offense, utilizing less than three WRs on 64% of snaps—the most in the NFL.
Given the history of these cheat codes, there is reason to believe that the Saints offense isn't a fluke. Especially after routing a well-respected defense like the Cowboys. So, what does this all mean for fantasy?
- Derek Carr: Carr is the QB4, averaging 22 points per game, and the team has yet to be forced to throw the ball in the second half. Carr UPGRADES to low-end QB1 territory and is available in 81% of Yahoo leagues. He is a PRIORITY WAIVER WIRE TARGET if you have Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, or Matthew Stafford as your QB1.
- Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the RB1 overall, averaging 33 points per game. While keeping that up isn't sustainable, Kamara has an 8.3 Utilization Score (10th), which has historically resulted in a low-end RB1 finish (16.3 PPG). Let's split the difference: Kamara UPGRADES to a mid-range RB1.
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Week 3 Waiver Wire Pickups
Well, I hope you didn't spend all your FAAB on Isaiah Likely (if you did, it's OK).
We finally had some bounce-back performances after Week 1 let-downs, and we also have another week of data that can help us spotlight some potential player weaknesses.
Remember, we never give up here. So whether you're 2-0 or 0-2, we are going to keep scratching away at the waiver wire to make your roster the best that it can be. Let's go through all the injuries you need to know about and break down the top waiver wire adds for Week 3.
Derek Carr, Saints (19% rostered on Yahoo)
Ummm, yes hello? Are the Saints and Derek Carr legit? I wrote last week to add Carr, but be cautious about starting him against the Cowboys. He obviously read that and needed to prove me wrong. Carr completed 11 of 16 passes for 243 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception to absolutely obliterate the Cowboys in a 44-19 win.
Shoutout to Carr and shoutout to new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The Saints were one of the most unimaginative offenses in the NFL last year and now we are seeing their true potential come to light. According to ESPN, New Orleans has now put up 91 points on offense through two games—the second most in franchise history and tied for sixth most among any team in NFL history. Carr has a good matchup facing the Eagles in Week 3, so keep rolling him out there.
Carson Steele (4% rostered) / Samaje Perine (5%), Chiefs
Unfortunately, the injury gods were not relenting in Week 2—Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is expected to land on injured reserve after suffering a fibula injury, according to Adam Schefter. He is expected to miss 6-8 weeks, but plans on returning this season.
DEEP SIGH
The "next men up" in Kansas City will be Samaje Perine and Carson Steele. Clyde Edwards-Helaire might be able to return to the team after his stint on IR, but he will still be out for another two games at minimum.
Samaje Perine was signed by the Chiefs before the season started and is on a one-year deal worth $1.5 million. I think he is obviously the more complete back when comparing him to rookie fullback Carson Steele. He's better at pass blocking, and has that pass-catching ability, but this might be an overall situation where they go the committee route.
Would we be surprised too if they brought in another running back?
The Chiefs are already reportedly hosting Kareem Hunt for a visit on Tuesday. But please remember, you cannot just replace Pacheco: thinking that any of these running backs can come in and replace his usage is silly. Take a swing on Perine first, then Steele, but pull back if you have huge expectations.
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🚑️ Injury updates: Cooper Kupp, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tua, Taysom Hill, Jordan Addison, Rachaad White, Joe Mixon, Tyjae Spears.
💎 Uncover your next waiver wire gem … stashes, stop gaps, and more, all in the palm of your hand.
😆 Ian, Charch, and Chris react live to the Isiah Pacheco injury news.
😅 Compare the Saints to the 2007 Patriots? It’s time for the Week 2 Overreactions Show.
🤝 Dwain and Ian talk Utilization Report and Waiver Wire Pickups in this action-packed show live today at 9 a.m. ET.
😭 The Jets lose a key piece for the year. Brutal.
🚀 How many TEs would you take over Brock Bowers rest of season? I only need one or two fingers to answer that.
The Week 2 ‘Sheesh of the Week’ Goes To …
- by Ian Hartitz
Steelers WR George Pickens … SHEESH
Boxscore aficionados probably looked at George Pickens' 2 receptions for 29 scoreless yards and concluded that ace Broncos CB Patrick Surtain Jr. had simply locked down yet another No. 1 WR. Or maybe they thought Justin Fields had a rough day at the office. Pulling the "Arthur Smith must have messed it up" card usually works, right?
Best Lee Corso impression: Not so fast my friend: They would all be wrong because Pickens spent the better part of Sunday afternoon cooking Surtain and the rest of the Denver secondary.
For those counting at home: Pickens directly missed out on 13.7 PPR points from two offensive penalties that were not committed by him. This doesn't even include the extra potential boost from perhaps hauling in that sideline catch in the absence of defensive pass interference. Sheesh.
High-end target volume figures to be an ongoing problem for Pickens inside the Steelers' run-first offense, but the third-year talent deserves credit for largely making the most out of his opportunities this season. Overall, Pickens is averaging career-best marks in yards per route run (2.65), passer rating when targeted (114.2), and targets per route run (23.3%) through two weeks of action. Not too shabby for a guy who just turned 23 last March.
It remains to be seen whether or not Fields will keep the starting job once Russell Wilson (calf) is healthy enough to suit up. Either way: Look for Pickens to continue to make his presence felt on 50/50 balls and downfield shots—I maintain he'd be a GREAT dark horse contender to win a league-wide game of "500" should the situation arise.
Speaking of WRs missing out on downfield opportunities …
More moments that simply made fantasy managers say, "Sheesh!"
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