Earlier this week, Chris Allen dropped his way-too-early 2026 mock draft for the first round of fantasy drafts (more on this below).

One-third of his projected first round is playing this weekend, and the Texans/Patriots game is the only game that doesn't feature a top-12 fantasy asset heading into next season.

Here are the stars who will be on display during the Divisional Round ...

1.03 - Puka Nacua

The bull case: Back-to-back seasons with a YPRR of 3.0 and put up gaudy fantasy numbers despite ceding a ton of TDs to the goal line backs (Kyren Williams, Blake Corum and Davante Adams).

The bear case: What happens when the cryogenic chamber stops working for Matthew Stafford?

1.05 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba

The bull case: An elite target share + air yards share that yields massive spike weeks.

The bear case: Lingering QB concerns and an extremely run-heavy offense result in more volatility than you'd like.

1.06 - Christian McCaffrey

The bull case: A true unicorn who seamlessly offset a dip in rushing efficiency with WR1-esque numbers in the receiving game.

The bear case: He's coming off a season with 413 touches and will be entering his age-30 season.

1.09 James Cook

The bull case: Set career highs in carries and yards while becoming the focal point of the offense.

The bear case: Josh Allen's presence at the goal line will always cap his true ceiling.

I don't think anyone else from this weekend could realistically crash the party, but RJ Harvey and TreVeyon Henderson are the two who could improve their stock the most.

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The Round 1 Turn … And Who Just Missed The Cut

ICYMI, Chris Allen broke down what Round 1 of a 2026 fantasy football draft would look like if we were to draft today. We broke down the guys at the top, the best of the best, and frankly, the no-brainers.

Where things get murky is when you approach the Round 1-2 turn. With so many interchangeable players, which guys won over Chris’ heart for the final few spots in Round 1 … and who just missed the cut?

1.11 - CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL

So, one of two things needs to happen. Either CeeDee Lamb needs to stay in the first round, and George Pickens should go soon after. Or, fantasy managers should look for the Dallas duo in the second round.

• Target Rate (after Week 7): 25% (Lamb), 23% (Pickens)
• Air Yard Share: 35%, 29%
• PPR PPG: 14.8, 14.7

Sure, there’s always the chance the Cowboys defense turns things around, limiting the number of times Dak Prescott has to throw next season. But even when he does, the split between Lamb and Pickens keeps the WR1 from his usual place closer to the front of drafts.

Trey McBride, TE, ARI

(Continue to) Save us, Jacoby Brissett. You’re Trey McBride’s only hope. I could rattle off McBride’s usage stats, but comparing him to WRs gives him a better case for the backend of the first round. After Brissett took over as the starter, the Arizona TE had a greater target share than Puka Nacua (27.7% vs 25.9%). Only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase had more passes thrown their way. And McBride’s 15 end-zone looks were the second most across both positions. Work on the defense this year, Arizona. Give us another year with Brissett.

Honorable Mentions

I had a couple of guys that I think could float into the first-round discussion. It won’t be at the start of the offseason. But once we get into the summer and training camp, I could see the hype train start to move them up in drafts.

Chase Brown, RB, CIN

At some point, we’re going to have to get past the “Chase Brown is splitting snaps with Samaje Perine” bit. Yes, Perine played on 37% of the snaps after Joe Flacco came to Cincinnati. But Brown took 62% of the carries, including half of the goal-line carries, and 14% of the targets. His rapport with Joe Burrow and handle on the money touches already had him as a 2/3 turn pick in ’25. He should be closer to the Top 12 this offseason.

Chris Olave, WR, NO

Chris Olave is more of a longshot. If anything, I wanted to give him his flowers for a strong season. Olave was already 10th amongst all WRs in target rate. But with Tyler Shough under center, the fourth-year WR moved into the top 10 in YPRR. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua were the only other WRs to average more PPR PPG than the former Buckeye. We’d need more confidence about the Saints as a whole to push Olave into the first round, but after two months, the potential is there.

Around the Watercooler

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