The RB Set To Explode In Fantasy Football (Soon)

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:

Happy Halloween from us at Fantasy Life and Dallas Goedert.

Earlier this week someone in our Discord asked me if I was “spooked” (my word choice, not theirs) about the lack of production from Nick Chubb since his return.

I was pretty surprised by the sentiment because I am the opposite of spooked—I’m extremely bullish about his rest-of-season outlook.

The Cleveland WRs have rightfully received the lion’s share of enthusiasm this week after Jameis Winston injected life back into the offense, but competent QB play is just as encouraging for the run game.

On top of that, we saw a big step forward in Chubb’s usage from Week 7 to Week 8:

If this upward trend continues—and there’s no reason to think it won’t—there are some monster games on the horizon for the Browns’ lead back.

It might not be this week because the Chargers are rock solid against the run, but a matchup vs. the Saints coming out of the team’s bye looks juicy.

If the Chubb manager isn’t showing proper patience, I’d look to pry him away.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Dwain’s Week 9 Rankings: Risers, Fallers, and Sicko Starts
Watercooler: TNF goodness

Quench Your Hard-Earned Thirst With Mike’s Hard Lemonade 🍋

Winning in fantasy football is hard work. You’ll need to replace your injured QB one day but get outbid in Free Agency. Next week you’ll need 5 points from your TE and see him deliver only 4. But, Mike’s Hard Lemonade wants to remind you that Hard Days Deserve a Hard Lemonade. So, the next time you work up a hard-earned thirst by leaving your highest-scoring player on the bench, it’s time to twist open a Mike’s Hard Lemonade.

Find Mike’s Hard Lemonade near you at www.MikesHard.com

Week 9 Risers & Fallers

by Dwain McFarland

It's time to set our fantasy lineups for the week and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the Week 9 fantasy football rankings ranks to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

📈 Risers

Josh Downs & Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | Colts

The Colts pass-catching duo was fantasy viable over a three-game stretch with Joe Flacco playing the majority of snaps.

Downs: 19.2 points per game, 8.3 Utilization Score, 28% target share
Pittman: 14.8 points per game, 6.8 Utilization Score, 19% target share

The Vikings dispense the No. 2 fantasy boost to the WR position at 8.2 points per game. Minnesota allows the fifth-most passing yards (251) and fourth-most touchdowns (1.8) per game.

The Vikings play the most two-high coverage in the NFL and rank fourth in zone coverage. While Downs is my favorite of the two due to his underlying breakout metrics, this matchup bodes very well for Pittman. The fifth-year WR has struggled against man coverage in 2024 (15% target share), but leads the team with a 28% share against zone.

Downs is a UPGRADES to borderline WR1 territory and is a SMASH PLAY. Pittman UPGRADES to borderline WR2 status.

DeVonta Smith | WR | Eagles

Smith's target share has returned to earth over the last three games with A.J. Brown back in the lineup, but it is still a respectable 22%. That number could climb this weekend against a Jaguars defense that deploys man coverage the second-most in the NFL.

Nerd Note: Targets tend to consolidate around high-end receiving options against man coverage–especially WRs. However, finding matchups where this edge is exploitable isn't easy because most teams don't run enough man coverage.

Brown is still the alpha dog against man with a 37% TPRR, but Smith is also a plus player at 25%. Against a Jaguars defense empowering the third-highest boost to the position (6.5 points per game), Smith has a chance to boom in the boxscore. The Eagles rank third in team total (27) on the slate, and Jacksonville gives up the most passing TDs per contest (2.1).

Smith UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 in a special matchup.

📉 Faller

C.J. Stroud | QB | Texans

Stroud has averaged 12.4 points per game in three complete games without Nico Collins. Now, the Texans will face a tough Jets pass defense without Stefon Diggs, who is out for the season (ACL).

The Jets have held opposing quarterbacks to a whopping 5.5 points under their season average. New York also allows only 10.2 fantasy points per game through the air, the second-fewest. Vegas oddsmakers aren't showing much optimism around the Texans either, with a 20.3-team total. Strouds passing yards Picke'em is at 224.5 yards on Underdog, only slightly below my projection of 228.

Stroud DOWNGRADES to low-end QB2 status.

👀 Sicko Start

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Malik Willis | QB | Packers

Willis is available in 99% of Yahoo leagues, starting in less than 1% of lineups.

Jordan Love (groin) didn't practice on Wednesday, opening the door for Willis to start against the Lions. Willis averaged 19.2 fantasy points in his two previous starts and was highly integrated into the Packers' ground attack. Willis handled 7% of the team's designed rush attempts and scrambled on 14% of his dropbacks, averaging six carries per game.

The Lions have a tough rush defense, but facing a rushing quarterback is different than bottling up opposing running backs. The Lions run the most man coverage in the NFL, something Willis will look to exploit on the ground when defenders turn their backs to the QB.

Willis UPGRADES to top-10 status if Love can't go this weekend. He ranks ahead of names like Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff.

Alternate: Bo Nix will be the next man up if Love suits up. The Ravens have been terrible against the pass, but it is worth noting that the Broncos are 10-point dogs. (Nerd Note: when passing attacks fall behind and become predictable, the additional volume often doesn't mean more fantasy points because efficiency deteriorates.) Nix is a mid-range QB2 this weekend.

More Risers and Fallers

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

📊 Rest-of-Season rankings update. Waz has you covered.

⚔️ Week 9 kicks off with an intriguing matchup … projections for Texans/Jets.

👻 CMC’s Halloween outfit. Don’t be the guy mad at him for having fun.

💰️ The best prop bets for tonight’s game. We’ve got you covered.

🙏 The Commanders intern deserves a raise. Good thinking.

🤢 Rough look for the 2023 QB class. Oof.

🚀 Big things coming or Tyrone Tracy. And he knows it.