In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Xfinity.
The specter of David Njoku has loomed large over multiple tight end rooms for the past couple months and yesterday we finally got the headache we’ve all been dreading …
That sound you hear is the weeping of a million Oronde Gadsden fans who were riding high after his impressive rookie breakout and the addition of Mike McDaniel.
Let’s try to be rational, though, and talk through this…
Njoku looked beyond washed last year. His routes, targets, and fantasy points plummeted as Harold Fannin single-handedly bodied him out of the picture. The Browns quickly moved on without any hesitation and basically killed his value on the free agent market in the process.
Still, he’s another TE body (along with Charlie Kolar) who could displace Gadsden for snaps—our updated projections have Njoku for 15.5 games, 36 targets and 25 receptions.
In turn, the impact to Gadsden’s projection has sunk him all the way down to TE19 in .5-PPR scoring.
Here’s what Dwain McFarland said when I asked him about his rankings update:
“It is a pretty tricky situation to project, tbh. Now have three TEs on the roster plus a FB. So we are going to see less 3-WR sets, which aligns with McDaniel's history as well …Everyone in this offense offers a wide range of outcomes. It is an offense we want to bet on, but pinning down who will get enough playing time is the tough part.”
So how to play it?
We need to be patient until Gadsden’s price settles in a more palatable territory, but that might happen quicker than you think. I got him at pick 151 in a draft yesterday, which seemed like a fair price.
The accomplishments are already significant for Ja’Marr Chase. OROY in 2021, compiling 1,455 receiving yards and 13 TDs. Again, he was a rookie! An otherworldly 127-1,708-17 Triple Crown season in 2024. Last season, with QB Joe Burrow missing nine games, Chase still posted a solid 125-1,412-8. He’s 26 and that’s his floor production. You can lock him in for more big production the next five seasons, and likely beyond.
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The running back position is so back, baby. After years of the league becoming increasingly pass-heavy, the run game is making a resurgence. Add in the fact that most running backs are now pass-catching threats out of the backfield, and there has been an uptick in scoring at the position. Last season, 15 different running backs eclipsed 200 fantasy points in 0.5-PPR scoring. That figure was merely five a decade ago.
Four different players eclipsed 325 half-PPR points at the position, and having a true stud running back remains one of the biggest possible edges in fantasy football. Let’s dive into the current top 12 options in our fantasy football rankings and start by highlighting the Tier 2 options …
Tier 2 – Almost Perfect
James Cook
Jonathan Taylor
Kenneth Walker
De’Von Achane
Ashton Jeanty
This tier of players all have the potential to perform like Tier 1 studs. However, they also have at least one red flag each that keeps them out of the top tier.
Let’s start with Cook. He’s probably the safest option of the bunch, which is why he tops this tier. He led the league in rushing yards and rushing yards per game last season, and he also took on a greater role as a receiver down the stretch. His target share jumped up from just 6% through the first nine weeks to 9% from Week 10 on. That’s not a huge increase, but it was a solid development for his fantasy outlook. The big issue with Cook is that he shares a backfield with Josh Allen, who is always a threat to steal a score or two around the goal line. Cook had just 40% of the Bills’ carries from inside the 5-yard line last season, which is far from ideal for a fantasy stud.
Taylor’s biggest red flag is that he simply doesn’t catch passes. It’s not that he can’t catch; he had an 83.6% catch rate last season, but he doesn’t get nearly the same type of usage as the top running backs in fantasy. He does the vast majority of his damage on the ground, and he is undoubtedly one of the best in the business in that department.
Walker has long been one of the most talented RBs in football, ranking first in PFF’s positional grades last season. He’s been held back by having to share the rock with Zach Charbonnet in Seattle, and that shouldn’t be an issue in Kansas City. Unfortunately, the Chiefs had one of the worst rushing attacks in football last season, and they were 25th in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate. The Seahawks were eighth in that metric, so even if Walker gets a larger percentage of his team’s touches, he could find the sledding much more difficult.
Achane is an elite talent at the position, especially as a receiver. His spot in Tier 2 has more to do with his team than himself. The Dolphins are expected to be more or less a disaster next season, so scoring opportunities could be hard to come by. He should still see plenty of volume, but it’s hard to be a top-flight RB with the potential for double-digit scores.
Jeanty was a blue-chip prospect in last year’s draft, but he’s coming off a disappointing rookie campaign. Most of that stems from the Raiders’ dismal offensive line, with Jeanty averaging just 1.6 yards before contact per attempt. That was one of the worst figures in the league among high-volume runners, so hopefully, the revamped Raiders’ offensive line helps open things up for him a bit more next season.
One of the perceived big winners of this offseason has been the Colts’ Josh Downs. With Michael Pittman Jr. now in Pittsburgh, Downs climbs up the target pecking order in Indianapolis. According to our current projections, he’s trailing Alec Pierce by only 3 targets. Yet almost three rounds separate them in ADP. People are taking notice, because Downs is one of the players climbing in ADP. Adam Pfeifer surveyed Underdog ADP to find who’s rising … and falling.
Josh Allen finishing among the top 2 QBs in fantasy since 2020 has been about as predictable as the sunrise. Yet there have been others to join him among the elites like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and last year even Drake Maye. Should Allen continue to stand alone? Where do the other QBs stand AFTER Allen is placed on his throne? Subscribe to the Fantasy Life Show so you never miss an episode.
