I’ve got 25 minutes to watch the end of a mystery-thriller movie anytime.

You get to watch the main character strung along by facts, leading them in a certain direction. At the same time, you get cut scenes of the antagonist still causing havoc. The chaos seems unending. But then one thing unravels the enemy’s plans. And in one sequence, the plot flips on them. Our drafts and the first few weeks of the season can have the same feeling.

We’ve built up our cases for and against every player on the board. Every stat, beat writer blurb, and offseason clip becomes our book of evidence. But then that one detail we overlooked brings everything into focus.

Coincidentally, I’ve had my doubts about a few players heading into 2025. But if a few clues turn out to be true, I could be wrong about their potential outcomes. 

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Justin Jefferson, Vikings (Consensus ADP: 6.0)

First off, the fact that the Vikings are switching signal callers isn’t what concerns me about Justin Jefferson. J.J. McCarthy will be the seventh QB to call Jefferson their WR1 in the NFL. We all fretted over Sam Darnold getting the starting gig last season. And, by all accounts, that worked out for all involved.

However, the Vikings’ passing game featured 622 dropbacks last season. Darnold’s 545 pass attempts were over 100 more than any previous full season as a starter. Contrast HC Kevin O’Connell’s reliance on Darnold’s arm with former HC Jim Harbaugh’s preference for McCarthy to hand the ball to his RB. During his two campaigns at Michigan, the offense catered to the run. 

• 2023: 40.4% (passing rate)
• 2022: 39.2%

For reference, Minnesota called a pass on 57.4% of their snaps last year. A 29.6% dip would hamstring Jefferson’s value. And their offseason moves don’t instill much confidence. From acquiring Jordan Mason (the ideal complement to Aaron Jones) to adding three linemen, the signals for a rushing revival are there. But a couple of points have me second-guessing myself.

• 2024 (PROE): +3.9% (rate), 3rd (rank)
• 2023: +2.2%, 6th
• 2022: +2.5%, 6th 

I’ve written about pass rate over expectation and the playcaller’s influence over it. Interestingly enough, O’Connell’s Vikings have ranked sixth or better in PROE since he got the job. It didn’t matter who the QB was. I already mentioned Darnold hitting career-highs in attempts. Kirk Cousins did the same in 2022. And it took four years for Nick Mullens to sling it more than 40 times in a single game. I’ll let you guess which HC gave him the green light to do it.

McCarthy was also aggressive when he threw the ball. With a 10.1 and 10.3 passing aDOT, he’d fit in with the Vikings’ style of attacking the intermediate and deep parts of the field. They have the receivers to do it. It all comes back to McCarthy’s preference. So while I can see a scenario where the first half of the season gives the Michigan man time to acclimate, Justin Jefferson’s role on the team and protection around McCarthy should enable him to find his WR1 and keep him as a first-round value.

Josh Jacobs, Packers (Consensus ADP: 18.4)

(Almost) Every week, I saw a Packers clip like the one below.

Josh Jacobs found the end zone 16 times in ’24. The fear of regression alone has given me pause if I have a late-first-round draft slot. It’s him or Jonathan Taylor staring you down after the 1-2 turn. Regardless, my worry isn’t about how often Jacobs will get into the end zone. It’s how much he’ll get the ball in general.

Another note about PROE is its relative stability year over year. Intuitively, this should make sense. As long as the QB and play designer are there, tendencies should continue. However, Green Bay didn’t have all of Jordan Love last year. He played through knee and groin ailments, with an elbow injury to go with the lower-body pain. And, of course, I’m no doctor, but it’s easy to figure out why the Packers’ offensive game plan changed in ’24, when compared to Love’s first season as the starter.

• 2024 (PROE): -8.3% (rate), 30th (rank)
• 2023: +0.3%, 10th 

Green Bay just drafted a first-round WR. Tucker Kraft has been everyone’s favorite TE. Everyone’s praying Jayden Reed will earn snaps in two-receiver sets. In other words, the passing game has been the offseason focus. Love could throw for more TDs rather than let Jacobs do the dirty work. However, even if we see Love drop back more often, Jacobs’s value doesn’t vanish.

Surprisingly, Jacobs had a 9.7% target share when Love was under center. In an offense with multiple pass catchers, it was the RB leading the pack with an absurd 11.4 yards after the catch per reception. Even better, Jacobs still saw work in the red zone. With MarShawn Lloyd still dealing with injuries, Jacobs has command over the backfield yet again. And even if the offense takes to the air more often, Jacobs’s hold on the goal-line work can help him retain his second-round value in 2025.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (Consensus ADP: 71.9)

OK, let’s review how much of an outlier year Baker Mayfield had in 2024.

Mayfield completed 41 TD throws in his second season as the Bucs’ QB1. To say it was a high point for him would be an understatement. You’d have to add the previous two seasons’ totals to get within striking distance. And it’s not just the fact that he reset his personal best. It’s how he did it. Of his 18 games with three or TD passes, seven of them came in 2024. But throwing passes wasn’t his only mode of putting up fantasy points. He ran them in, too.

Again, you’d have to sum up a few of his past years to get to the 378 rushing yards he accrued. He hadn’t run for three scores since he was a sophomore passer in Cleveland. So, let’s put all of the concerns together, and I’ll tack on a new one.

• Mayfield threw for more TDs than he ever had before.
• Mayfield ran for more TDs than he ever had before.
• Mayfield has now lost two offensive coordinators, whom analysts lauded as progressive play-callers and QB whisperers.

Wait. I remembered another. Mayfield’s starting left tackle is hurt.

It’s easy to point to a drop off in production and back away from Mayfield’s QB7 price. The number of detracting factors makes his appeal as a (mostly) pocket passer seem like a bet on a repeat of 2024. Well, at least on the play-calling side, there’s some hope that has me reconsidering.

While then-OC Liam Cohen did have much to do with Tampa’s play design, OC Josh Grizzard contributed to their game plan for obvious passing situations. Grizzard worked side-by-side with Cohen, communicating coverages and pressures to Cohen and figuring out how to navigate the offense through new looks from the opposing defense. While Grizzard is yet to call plays, he at least has experience in the machinations behind diagramming and sequencing them. Plus, the Bucs have continued to invest in their pass-catching corps to give Mayfield more weapons downfield.

Let’s hope we see Chris Godwin at some point in 2025. However, Jalen McMillan and Emeka Egbuka, alongside Mike Evans, are a potent trio. And with Bucky Irving still working out of the backfield, Mayfield can still operate as a distributor as he did in ’24. So while the potential still exists for a downtick in total yards and even touchdowns, by walking through the context, the concern isn’t as great as it might seem at first.

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