I dedicated countless hours to researching which data points matter for future fantasy performance this offseason. I embark upon this journey every offseason, but I have never felt more prepared for an activity like creating rankings and tiers than in 2024.

That doesn't mean I will get everything right. There will be misses. Football is a cruel game played with an elongated sphere that can bounce in the most unpredictable ways. The critical thing to remember is that we are playing a game of probabilities. 

If we can get more things right than wrong, we have a great chance of beating our opponents. I only know how to do that by following the data. So, let's dive in.

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Tier Methodology

This article will group players into tiers based on the following data criteria.

• Fantasy points: PPR points per game
• Talent profile: Target share, yards per route run (YPRR), air yards share
• Age: Rounded up based on Week 1
• Passing offense quality: Fantasy Life projections
• Target competition: Teammates inside top-36 ADP at WR and top seven at TE
• Player average draft position (ADP): Underdog

Fantasy points per game and talent profile

I love advanced data, but historical points per game are still the gold standard for predicting future fantasy production. However, we can better understand talent by going one level deeper. As we expect, the things that matter most for TEs are very similar to WRs, but the signal is slightly stronger for TEs.

So, what does a top-three TE look like versus a low-end TE1?

Age

As players age, our data's year-over-year correlation decays. By comparing a TE's best three-year stretch (prime production) versus age buckets, we can see when they are at their max powers and when they decline.

The data plays out similarly to WRs but with some minor differences.

• Pre-prime years are less potent than WRs.
• Prime starts one year earlier than WRs.
• Post-prime performance is stronger than pre-prime.
• The falloff at age 30 is sharper.
• TEs who make it to 31 level off versus the rapid decline WRs experience.

Another interesting tidbit I found when digging into TEs was how much target share against man coverage mattered for players age 30 or older. It slightly edged out PPR per game for the strongest correlation to next-season points, 0.86 to 0.83.

Passing offense quality and target competition

The final step is to assess a player's environment. TEs who reside in high-powered passing attacks have enjoyed more success reaching the the top six. However, the data is more evenly distributed for TEs seven through 12. For TEs outside the top 12 who don't check as many talent boxes, the quality of the passing offense matters.

Since TEs are part of the equation, some chicken-or-the-egg stuff is happening. We account for that in the Fantasy Life projections when forecasting team passing yards, which is the source for passing offense quality.

From a target competition standpoint, we prefer teams with fewer mouths to feed and having an offensive coordinator willing to push the cheat code buttons is a bonus. The advantages of motion were more robust for WRs, but play action has been a massive boost for TEs.

Player average draft position (ADP)

Never before have we had such robust market data. Thanks to the explosion of best ball, thousands of real-money drafts have already occurred for 2024. We must leverage this data.

While one of the goals with the tiers is to unearth mispriced players, I want to respect ADP. It represents something much larger and infinitely more intelligent than one person. You should be highly skeptical if you see an analyst (including me) repeatedly pounding the table for a player moving opposite of ADP. 

In "The Logic of Sports Betting," Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow had this to say:

“Market resistance is a massive red flag that you're missing something, and the best thing you can do is stop betting into the resistance and instead try to figure out what you may have gotten wrong.”

Enough methodology talk. Let's talk tiers.

Tier 1 – High-end talents in good situations

Sam LaPorta finished as the No. 3 TE in fantasy points per game (PPG) with 13.8 in a fantastic rookie campaign. Since 2011, no other TE has reached that mark in Year 1, but five have done it by Year 2.

• Rob Gronkowski (20.7)
• Jimmy Graham (18.4)
• George Kittle (16.0)
• Aaron Hernandez (15.5)
• Mark Andrews (13.9)

While it is hard to know if LaPorta can take that next step, it is an encouraging list demonstrating a sky-high ceiling. As of today, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the man in Detroit, but LaPorta held his own when they were on the field together with a 25% target share versus 31% for St. Brown.

Travis Kelce has delivered 16.6, 18.6 and 14.8 PPG over the last three campaigns. Last season was his worst finish since 2016, but if we include the NFL playoffs, he finished with 16.2 PPG.

On the one hand, he will face the most target competition he has seen in years. Rashee Rice broke out as a rookie, and the team added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. On the other hand, he plays with Patrick Mahomes on a team that should be a top-three pass unit. 

The Chiefs rewarded the 35-year-old with a two-year contract worth $34.3M, but he posted his worst man coverage target share since 2014. His 20% mark dropped drastically from 27% in the two previous campaigns. Kelce injured his knee in the preseason, causing him to miss Week 1, so injuries probably played a role, but it's hard to know to what extent.

Even if Kelce only operates at 80% of his prime (79% last year), he still belongs in this tier. And if health was the issue last year, he offers an upside we aren't sure the rest of this group can reach.

Trey McBride took over the starting TE role in Week 8 and never looked back. Over that stretch, the former Round 2 draft pick averaged 14.9 points per game. His underlying numbers were just as impressive.

• Targets: 29%
• Air yards: 26%
• YPRR: 2.09

The arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. via the NFL Draft adds target competition, but the rest of the Cardinals roster lacks target-earning challengers. McBride comes with some small-sample risk, but his demonstrated upside rivals LaPorta.

Mark Andrews delivered 17.5, 12.6 and 13.5 PPG in the last three years, giving him two top-three-worthy seasons. Last season marked his lowest target share (21%) since his rookie campaign. Zay Flowers led the team with a 24% target share, but they were nearly dead even on the field together.

• Andrews: 25% targets
• Flowers: 24% targets

Lamar Jackson threw for 230 yards per game last season in the team's first season under Todd Monken, but game scripts were wildly in Baltimore's favor. The Ravens led by four-plus points on 49% of snaps. However, their dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) was 1.5%. If we get more competitive scripts, this offense offers upside in the passing department.

Tier 2 – Aging elite talent in a crowded offense

George Kittle posted 14.3, 13.5 and 12.7 PPG in the last three years. So, a top-three worthy finish in two out of three campaigns. While his points have slightly declined, he still hits TE1-worthy marks in multiple talent categories. Kittle will turn 31 this season, but he was still strong against man coverage, with his strongest man air yards season yet at 25%.

The biggest challenge for Kittle is the wealth San Francisco has amassed at RB and WR — nowhere on the planet is target competition more fierce.

While the eighth-year veteran doesn't offer the same upside to monopolize an offense like Tier 3, he is in a great scheme, and we know he is a stud. We hope one of the TEs in the tiers below can give us what Kittle has already proven. If Kittle played for the Falcons or Bills, he would be my TE1 overall.

Tier 3 – Prime hopefuls in improved situations

If you are looking for TEs in their prime, this is your tier. These two players have a chance to be target leaders in their offense. However, we must have faith that they will continue progressing.

Dalton Kincaid demonstrated a high-end TE1 upside, averaging 14.4 PPG in games without Dawson Knox last season. In those games, he boasted an 81% route participation and 21% target share — second behind Stefon Diggs.

The question is whether Knox continues eating into Kincaid's playing time. From Week 14 through the playoffs with Knox back in the lineup, Kincaid's route participation dipped to 73%, and his target share fell to 18%. That had a direct impact on fantasy points (8.9 PPG).

Kincaid has not demonstrated the same talent upside as the Tier 1 options. To this point, he has been a low average depth of target (ADOT) merchant without the yards after the catch (YAC) that we expect from that archetype. There is a chance he is more like Dalton Schultz than the next Andrews or Kittle. So, this ranking is betting on a step forward from the former Round 1 NFL Draft selection.

Diggs' departure means the Bills are betting on the same thing. Kincaid led the team with 28% targets per route run (TPRR) on the small number of plays without Diggs last season. In an offense led by Josh Allen without any established target alphas, the 25-year-old has an opportunity to smash in 2024.

Kyle Pitts garnered 10.4, 7.6 and 8.1 PPG in his first three seasons. You have been disappointed if you have bought into the Pitts hype in previous years. Despite the lack of production, Pitts flashed high-end TE1 traits in all three seasons. Air yards are the second-most strongly correlated data point with future fantasy points, and Pitts has been on par with the league's top performers.

Last season, Pitts was recovering from a 2022 November knee surgery (MCL/PCL) but still garnered a 25% share of the air yards. And if we look at how dreadful the Falcons' QB room has been, earning targets and air yards is about all we can hold Pitts accountable for since QB play impacts YPRR.

While Pitts is still a gamble, the offseason was very kind.

• Kirk Cousins, who averaged 270 passing yards the last three years, is the starting QB.
• Raheem Morris is the new head coach.
• Zac Robinson (Rams) is the new OC and should bring those McVay cheat codes.

It is hard to run much better than that, and I project a 70-yard-per-game increase in passing. No one saw less catchable targets last season at the TE spot. He now has a QB with the accuracy to take advantage of his unique field-stretching ability. We might not want to hear this, but this could finally be the season Pitts hits big.

Tier 4 – Aging mid-range TE1s

These two players have demonstrated mid-range to low-end TE1 viability. While they don't offer upside in completely healthy offenses, both have shown the ability to up their PPG when teammates are injured. If you want pure talent upside instead, scroll down to the next tier.

Evan Engram registered 10.3 and 13.8 PPG in his first two seasons with Jacksonville's TE-whisperer Doug Pederson. OK, Pederson has had some excellent TEs, which is probably the driving factor. However, Engram was long forgotten when he joined the Jaguars.

He profiles as a mid-range TE1 talent and resides on an offense that should spread the ball without an elite target earner. The Jaguars replaced Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones with BrIan Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis. Last season, with Ridley, Kirk and Engram on the field, Engram was second behind Kirk in target share at 24%. Trevor Lawrence reached a career-high 250 passing yards per game last year, enough to support multiple mid-range fantasy weapons.

David Njoku tallied 6.7, 10.3 and 12.8 PPG over the last three seasons. But what you probably remember most is the 18 PPG eruption from Week 13 through the playoffs with Joe Flacco under center. Before that, he averaged 10.3.

So, which Njoku will we get in 2024 with Deshaun Watson back under center? Over the last two years with Watson, Njoku has a 17% target share and 1.09 YPRR, so it could be better, but it is only a 311 route sample. Let's not overreact.

Tier 5 – Ascending talent with QB and competition concerns

Brock Bowers doesn't project well. The Raiders QB room has significant questions, leading to a below-average passing yards per game outlook. The target competition is high with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Plus, the Raiders spent a high-end second-round pick on a good prospect last season in Michael Mayer. We could easily see a rotation.

The Bowers rank is a 100% unadulterated bet on talent. Simply put, he is the last TE on the board with the talent to help propel his offense to new heights. This pick could completely bomb, but every name after Bowers has issues without the same talent profile. If something breaks Bowers' way, like an Adams falloff, he could be the top option on the team.

If you want a TE with a more projectable role, scroll to the next tier.

Tier 6 – Borderline TE1 talents in good offenses

Jake Ferguson stepped into a more significant role in 2023 with Dalton Schultz gone and delivered a low-end TE1 finish with 10.4 PPG. However, he upped that to 13.2 PPG after moving into a full-time role in Week 6.

Regardless of the splits, his talent profile looks more like a high-end TE2, but he resides in one of the better passing attacks in the NFL. CeeDee Lamb provides big competition, but the Cowboys don't have a quality No. 2, keeping Ferguson in the low-end TE1 conversation again for 2024.

Dallas Goedert notched 11.9 and 9.7 PPG in two seasons as the Eagles' full-time TE. That isn't exactly what fantasy managers had hoped for from the former Round 2 pick out of South Dakota State after Zach Ertz's departure. As Goedert's playing time increased, the target competition also erupted with the arrival of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Consider Goedert a low-end TE1 with contingency upside shouLD Brown or Smith miss time.

Tier 7 – TE2s in changing situations

Pat Freiermuth tanked last season but had two low-end TE1 performances of 9.5 and 9.3 PPG in the previous seasons. Diontae Johnson is no longer in town, opening up the opportunity for a rebound season. I expect little from this passing attack, but Arthur Smith ranked fourth in play-action pass rate during his tenure with Atlanta.

Dalton Schultz delivered 9.9, 7.7 and 8.2 PPG over the last three campaigns. That is the definition of a high-end TE2. The high-end upside of the Texans offense provides Schultz with outs, but the addition of Stefon Diggs pushes him further down the pecking order.

Cole Kmet notched 7.1, 8.7 and 10.7 PPG, steadily improving each of the last three seasons. His talent profile matched that of a mid-range TE1 last season. However, the Bears added Rome Odunze (Round 1) and Keenan Allen this offseason, changing the power dynamics in Chicago. Kmet's career highs keep him in this tier, but it's hard not to expect regression without a massive season from rookie QB Caleb Williams.

Hunter Henry hasn't provided a low-end TE1 finish since 2021, but the Patriots depth chart is full of question marks at pass catcher. Don't expect Henry to suddenly morph into a 24% target share guy, but he could push for 18 to 20%, with some TD luck that could net a low-end TE1 finish.

Tier 8 – T.J. Hockenson + hints of a talent profile

Note: At this point in the tiers, providing player profiles isn't a point because they all start to look the same on the talent front. However, if you want that data, check out our Advanced Tight End Stats with the last five years of data.

T.J. Hockenson is recovering from ACL and MCL surgery, which could keep him off the field for a while. However, he could be a fantasy force in the second half of the season.

Last season, he demonstrated a high-end TE1 talent profile, but I expect the Vikings passing attack to take a significant step back in 2024 with Kirk Cousins gone. Still, once Hockenson is back on the field, keeping him out of the TE1 conversation will be hard.

Luke Musgrave was never a high-end target earner in college, and that trend continued into his first season with the Packers with a 13% target share. Still, he is a young player on whom the Packers spent a second-round pick in an ascending offense. There are worse bets than putting a chip on Musgrave to improve.

Ben Sinnott will have to overtake Zach Ertz for the No. 1 role in Washington, but if that happens he could be the second-best option on an offense without a high-end target earner. Terry McLaurin will get his opportunities, but he has never been a 25%-plus target share player, and Jahan Dotson has been a bust. With Curtis Samuel gone, the underneath targets in this offense are up for grabs.

Jonnu Smith has a mid-range TE1 YPRR profile with a 1.63 average over the last five seasons. He will need to shine as a blocker to stay on the field in a 21-personnel-heavy offense in Miami. However, if he clears that hurdle, he could be the No. 3 target in a passing attack with as much upside as any. No team has utilized play action more than Miami since Mike McDaniel's arrival.

Tier 9 – Veterans in line for playing time

• Cade Otton: Otton isn't a target earner, but his 89% route participation ranked No. 1.
• Tyler Conklin: The Jets get Aaron Rodgers back, and after Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams, targets are up for grabs.
• Noah Fant: Fant posted a low-end TE1 YPRR profile (1.46) over the last four seasons, and with Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly gone, his route participation should reach career highs.
• Chigoziem Okonkwo: Calvin Ridley complicates the pecking order for targets, but Okonkwo is in line for most of the passing-down snaps for the Titans.
• Juwan Johnson: Johnson suffered a foot injury that could keep him out early in the season. Once he is ready to return, he should be the top passing-down option for the Saints.

Tier 10 – Upside talents with uncertain playing time

• Isaiah Likely: Likely averaged 13.4 PPG in contests without Andrews last season. That is high-end TE1 production.
• Zach Ertz: I hear you. Upside talent and Ertz are words that don't go together. However, the man had a 22% target share with 8.6 PPG in five games as the starter for a Cardinals team without Kyler Murray. If Sinnott struggles, Ertz could offer sneaky value in 2024.
• Jelani Woods: Woods missed all last season with a hamstring injury, but he offers the size-speed combination that could create mismatches against linebackers and safeties.
• Michael Mayer: Mayer has the fifth-highest TE Super Model score since 2018. He was a high-end target earner all through college but suffered a deadly blow with the arrival of Bowers. Mayer needs the Raiders to commit to two TE sets in a way that rarely happens in the NFL, but you could imagine what it might be like if they did.
• Ja'Tavion Sanders: Sanders fell to Round 4 in the NFL Draft, but the Panthers TE depth chart isn't chiseled in stone.
• Theo Johnson: Johnson was never a high-end target earner in college, but the Round 4 pick has the speed to create challenges for secondaries. The Giants' TE pecking order is up for grabs.
• Greg Dulcich: Dulcich has yet to be able to stay on the field early in his career. However, the Broncos are searching for someone to step up outside Courtland Sutton, and Dulcich flashed at times in his rookie season.
• Mike Gesicki: I honestly didn't know where to put Gesicki. His profile doesn't scream upside and is not a lock for starter-level routes. Still, he will compete for a role inside a high-end passing attack.