It's time to set our fantasy lineups for Week 1, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in my fantasy football rankings for Week 1 to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

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Rankings Risers for Week 1

C.J. Stroud | QB | Texans

Stroud averaged 274 yards and 1.5 passing TDs per game as a rookie. The only other QBs to average 270-plus yards in their first full season:

• Patrick Mahomes (319)
• Justin Herbert (289)
• Andrew Luck (273)

That is not a bad club to be in, and with Stefon Diggs joining 2023 breakouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Stroud is one of three passers with a legit shot at 5,000 yards in 2024.

Look for Stroud to start the season hot, with the Texans checking multiple smash-play boxes.

• Team total: 26.25 (third)
• Competitive game: three-point favorites
• Colts pass defense: 252 yards per game allowed (ninth)

Stroud is a SMASH play in Week 1, ranking as my QB5 overall.

Jayden Daniels | QB | Commanders

If you have been reading my content this offseason, you know that I love Daniels this season because of his ability as a rusher.

Since 2011, we have had 21 instances of a QB recording 100 or more rushing attempts while passing for fewer than 3,500 yards. That group delivered 20.3 PPG with an average finish of QB8. Only three failed to secure a top-12 finish.

Surprise! I have Daniels ranked as my QB8 in Week 1. Technically, you could argue: "That's not a riser, McFarland!" and while you would be correct, the Round 1 NFL Draft pick offers some sweet passing upside in this matchup.

The Buccaneers hemorrhaged 269 passing yards per contest last season–the fifth-most. They should be improved with a healthier Jamel Dean. Still, Daniels' top weapon, Terry McLaurin, should get plenty of chances against Zyon McCollum (114th out of 126 in PFF Coverage Grade)  and rookie third-rounder Tykee Smith.

I am starting Daniels over names like Joe Burrow and Jordan Love in Week 1.

Jared Goff | QB | Lions

When considering starting Goff, we want to pick our spots, and things look good in Week 1. The Lions have the highest team total on the slate (27.8) in what could be a shootout with the Rams (four-point spread), who ranked 13th against the pass in 2023.

Over the last two seasons, when the Lions have reached 25 points or more, Goff averaged 271 yards and 2.2 passing TDs. When narrowing down to the six games with a final-score margin of four points or less, Goff averaged for 287 yards and two TDs.

Goff UPGRADES to QB12 status and can enter fantasy lineups over names like Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott.

Joe Mixon | RB | Texans

Mixon was thought of as a mid-range RB2 in fantasy drafts this summer due to his age (28) and some undisputably putrid efficiency metrics:

• PFF Run Grade: 73.8 (26 of 37 RBs with 150-plus attempts)
• Missed tackles forced: 12.1% (35 of 37)
• Average yards after contact:  2.5 (35 of 37)
• 10-plus yard attempts: 10.5% (17 of 37)

However, this is familiar territory for Mixon, whose efficiency data was subpar the previous two seasons when he managed RB12 and RB6 point-per-game (PGG) finishes. While the concerns about Mixon could still ring true at some point in 2024, we are in Week 1, and he should get fed early and often.

The Colts defense was gouged for the eighth-most yards (125.8) and the third-most TDs (1.3) per game on the ground in 2023. Indianapolis allowed the fourth-most PPG to opposing RBs. With Houston projecting for the third-most points on the slate, Mixon offers multi-TD upside.

The veteran RB projects for the seventh-most points on the slate and is a SMASH play as my No. 12 ranked player.

Raheem Mostert | RB | Dolphins

Mostert averaged 17.2 PPG in contests with Achane in 2023, yet the man ranks outside the top 45 players on many sites in Week 1.

On the one hand, I get it because our projection models honestly can't comprehend offenses like the Dolphins–who get over-regressed. On the other hand, that is where rankings come into play. Sometimes, we know ball better than a machine or mathematical formula.

To be perfectly transparent, our projection model has Mostert at 11.1 half-PPR points–-the 45th most on the week. But I know his range of outcomes includes a 20-plus-point game. While I expect Achane's role to expand this year, there is enough to go around in the Dolphins offense, and Mostert could still be the lead option early in the season.

The Dolphins are four-point favorites at home over the Jaguars this weekend in a game that could be a shootout. Miami offers the second-highest team total at 27.3 points.

Mostert could be one of the most underrated players in Week 1. I have him ten spots ahead of industry consensus as my No. 38 player, which gets the point across but is still likely too low.

Aaron Jones | RB | Vikings

You may notice a theme with these backs. They all fell in fantasy drafts due to their age, but in Week 1, that is less of a concern. Yes, it could trump their season at some point, but this is when they should be at their best.

Of course, while Jones is getting a little long in the tooth (29), he was still efficient in 2023.

• PFF Run Grade: 85.7 (6 of 37 RBs with 150-plus attempts)
• Missed tackles forced: 20.3% (16th of 37)
• Average yards after contact:  3.4 (6 of 37)
• 10-plus-yard attempts: 11.5% (10 of 37)

I expect the Vikings to lean more on their ground game with Sam Darnold under center, and Jones could push for as much as 60% of the carries in Week 1. In a matchup against a Giants run defense that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards (132) and rushing TDs (1.2), that could lead to an RB1 performance for Jones.

Jones is a mid-range RB2 and ranks seven spots ahead of industry consensus in my overall ranks.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Lions

You guys probably don't need me to tell you this since you already know that the Sun God is an alpha, and we just walked through all the reasons Goff gets an upgrade this weekend. But I just want to point out that ARSB is my WR2 this weekend–only behind Tyreek Hill because this game environment and the matchup are much better than what CeeDee Lamb is facing.

Perhaps no player in the league gets more scheme protection than St. Brown via motion and alignment, thanks to the creativity of Ben Johnson. Slot cornerback Cobie Durant is the weakest link in the Rams' secondary, with a 54.7 PFF Coverage Grade (98 of 126), and you can expect most of St. Brown's routes to come with Durant as the initial player in coverage.

St. Brown upgrades to top-two status in Week 1.

Mike Evans | WR | Buccaneers

Nowhere to run to, baby.

Nowhere to hide.

Martha and the Vandellas were already writing lyrics about this game for Evans in 1965. I am unsure how they predicted this, but wherever Evans lines up in Week 1, he will be a mismatch against Dan Quinn's underpowered secondary.

• Michael Davis: 103 of 126 in PFF Coverage Grade
• Benjamin St-Juste: 95 of 126
• Mike Sainristil: rookie Round 2 pick

Things could get incredibly out of hand if Quinn tries to deploy the same man-heavy coverage looks he used in Dallas (third-most). Evans ROASTED opponents with a 37% target share against man in 2023.

Evans is an ABSOLUTE SMASH PLAY this weekend as my WR9. This alpha could go for 150 yards and two TDs.

Puka Nacua | WR | Rams

Only two WRs have posted a 25%-plus target share and a yards per route run (YPRR) over 2.50 in their rookie seasons since 2011: Odell Beckham Jr. and Nacua. You could argue Nacua's accomplishment is even more impressive considering he did it on a team with another high-end target earner in Cooper Kupp. Make no mistake about it, Nacua is a stud.

The second-year WR has a JUICY matchup against a Lions secondary that coughed up the most passing yards per game (277) in regulation play in 2024.

Detroit upgraded their secondary this offseason, adding Terrion Arnold late in the first round and Carlton Davis in free agency. However, this game still has shootout written all over it with a 51.5-point total–the highest number of the weekend.

Assuming Nacua is a full practice participant by Friday, he will remain in my top 20–even with a healthy Cooper Kupp (who I also love) in the fold.

Rankings Fallers for Week 1

Dak Prescott | QB | Cowboys

Prescott averaged 273 yards and 2.2 TDs per contest in 2023, but the projection model doesn't like him in Week 1 for a litany of reasons.

• Browns pass defense: 191 yards per game allowed (third fewest)
• Browns DvP: 15.0 fantasy points per game allowed (fourth fewest)
• Team total: 19.8 (fifth lowest)

Prescott will have better days ahead, but the Browns are one of the toughest matchups in the NFL. Their corners can be beaten, which could lead to a big play from Lamb, but consistency could be a significant challenge, with Myles Garrett and Za'Darius Smith registering top-10 PFF Pass Rush Grades in 2023.

Prescott is a FADE if you have better options on your bench. He ranks as my QB17, behind names like Tua Tagovailoa, Goff, Caleb Williams and Matthew Stafford.

Brock Purdy | QB | 49ers

Purdy averaged a blistering 266 yards and 1.9 TDs per contest in 2023. However, he faces some of the same challenges as Prescott in the season opener.

• Jets pass defense: 187 yards per game allowed (second fewest)
• Jets DvP: 13.5 fantasy points per game allowed (second fewest)

However, he doesn't get a complete fade status due to a respectable team total of 24 points (eighth highest). Unlike the Cowboys, the 49ers have multiple high-end playmakers on offense that can make life tough on even the best defenses.

Purdy DOWNGRADES to QB16 status behind Goff and Lawrence.

Zamir White | RB | Raiders

The preseason utilization of Alexander Mattison has me leery of putting White into my lineups.

This utilization could be nothing, but I don't see a reason to risk it, given the Raiders' low team total of 18.8 points as four-point dogs against the Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh will commit to shutting down the run the same way he commits to establishing it, which could funnel the offense through the passing game with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers. The Chargers should be better against the pass in 2023, but they have a long way to go after giving up a whopping 269 yards per game last year.

White is a FADE for me in Week 1, ranking over 20 spots behind industry consensus. I prefer backs from uncertain backfields on better teams or with superior talent profiles like Tony Pollard, Zack Moss, and Chase Brown.

Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | Patriots

Stevenson projects for a healthy 60% of the rushing attempts for the Patriots in Week 1, but that still only comes to 11.3 totes. The Patriots boast the worst team total (15.8) and are nine-point dogs against the Bengals.

Historically, Stevenson has been a plus back in the receiving game. Still, we don't know how many passing-down snaps Antonio Gibson might steal away, drastically lowering Stevenson's floor and ceiling potential.

Stevenson DOWNGRADES to high-end RB3 status and ranks 11 spots behind industry consensus as my No. 64 flex option.

Diontae Johnson | WR | Panthers

I love Diontae Johnson (he earns targets).

I love Diontae Johnson (he earns targets).

I love Diontae Johnson (he earns targets).

With that out of the way, I am also a reasonable man. The Saints have most of their starting secondary returning in 2024 after allowing only 221 passing yards per contest (ninth fewest) last year. Johnson isn't drawing dead, but most of his routes will come against two quality corners in Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo.

As much as it pains me to say, Johnson is a FADE in Week 1, ranking as my No. 74 player overall–-well below the industry consensus of 62.

Pat Freiermuth | TE | Steelers

Freiermuth posted a 60% route participation with the starters this preseason, with Darnell Washington and MyCole Pruitt rotating heavily. Arthur Smith loves to utilize multiple personnel groupings, and right now, Freiermuth isn't getting reps in formations using 12 and 21. This situation would be alarming even if he had a 100% snap rate in 11 personnel.

Given the Steeler's fifth-lowest team total on the slate and the recent inability of Russell Wilson to mount a meaningful passing attack, it just isn't worth having Freiermuth anywhere near your lineups.

Freiermuth ranks 24 spots behind industry consensus in my ranks and is a FADE FADE FADE FADE.

Jake Ferguson | TE | Cowboys

Ferguson broke out in 2024 with 9.7 fantasy points per game, including 12.3 over the final four contests, making him a low-end TE1 target in drafts this summer. He projects as the No. 2 option in a high-quality offense, but the Browns pose a serious threat to his fantasy reliability in Week 1. Cleveland returns most of its defense after allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game and the least fantasy points per contest to opposing TEs (9.2) in 2023.

Ferguson remains a low-end TE1 due to the lack of other options, but he projects for only 8.4 points in a tough matchup.

Sicko Starts

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or, you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Let's go, you sickos.

Sam Darnold | QB | Vikings

Darnold is the QB17 in our projection model-–ahead of Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. Darnold averaged only 211 yards per game in contests where he has played at least 90% of the snaps in his career, so the 245 in our projections feels a tad unhinged. 

However, the Giants might have the worst starting trio of cornerbacks in the NFL. Deonte Banks (110 of 126) and Adoree' Jackson (117 of 126) had terrible PFF Coverage Grades in 2023, leaving third-round rookie slot corner Andru Phillips with much ground to make up. 

Justin Jefferson should eat in Week 1, which also gives Darnold a chance to impress as a mid-range QB2 with low-end QB1 upside.

J.K. Dobbins | RB | Chargers

How the Chargers divide up the snaps at RB in Week 1 is unknown. However, J.K. Dobbins offers the most upside out of the gate. While his injury history (ACL, LCL, Hamstring, and Achilles tears) has been brutal, he will only be 25 and was one of the most explosive backs in the NFL over his first two seasons.

• 10-plus yard attempts: 16% vs. NFL average of 10%
• Missed tackles forced: 20% vs. 16%
• Average yards after contact: 3.3 vs. 2.7

Offseason reports indicate Dobbins looks excellent. If he is 70% of what he once was, he could smash in fantasy football playing behind an offensive line loaded with first-round NFL talent and a coaching staff committed to running the football. 

I project Dobbins to get around a third of the touches in Week 1, which puts him in flex territory inside my top 100.

Jalen McMillan | WR | Buccaneers

If you saw the mouth-watering matchup above for Mike Evans, you know there is a chance for McMillan to also come through against the Commanders. The rookie locked down the No. 3 role during the preseason and lined up on the outside. If Baker Mayfield sees him singled up versus man coverage, expect the rookie to get a chance to come down with a big play like he did in preseason.

McMillan is my No. 132 player this weekend, and I would start him over names like Rashod Bateman, Marvin Mims, and Tyler Boyd.

Zach Ertz | TE | Commanders

I know this is gross, but if we have to pick a potential No. 2 target-earner in this offense for Week 1, it is Ertz. The wiley veteran quietly posted a TE1-worthy 24% targets per route run (TPRR) in five games as the starter for the Cardinals last season.

Ertz is my TE15 and ranks inside my top 130 players for Week 1.

Brass Balls Bench

I don't necessarily fully endorse these plays, but if you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

• QB - Joe Burrow: The Bengals are nine-point favorites against the Patriots, and despite their pass-happy ways, they might not have Ja'Marr Chase, or Chase might not be 100%. If, for some reason, you have Burrow and someone like Tua Tagovailoa or Jordan Love, who offer more shootout potential, there is a path to benching Burrow.
   
• RB - Josh Jacobs: Jacobs projects a healthy workload this weekend, but there is always a risk with Matt LaFleur, who has never given a back over 61% of the attempts in Green Bay. The Eagles were a bottom-12 matchup for backs last season, and they return a LOADED front four, which could make life problematic for the Packers' run game. It would be tough to bench Jacobs at RB, but I would do it for Joe Mixon. He would also be out of my lineup for Mike Evans in PPR formats if I were trying to decide on a flex starter.
   
• WR - Brandon Aiyuk: If there was ever a week to bench Aiyuk, this is it. He missed most of camp, his receiving teammates are healthy, and the 49ers have one of the most formidable passing game matchups against the Jets. Aiyuk is a coin flip against multiple guys he went ahead of in fantasy drafts, including George Pickens, Stefon Diggs, and Terry McLaurin. I have all three just ahead of Aiyuk in the Week 1 ranks.