Week 10 QB Rankings: Sam Darnold, Marcus Mariota and More
Matthew Freedman runs through the highlights of his Week 10 quarterback rankings.
It's Week 10.
Double digits.
We're now halfway through the NFL regular season.
Traditionally, this is the point in the year when I start binge-listening to either Crosby Still Nash & Young or random Star Wars-focused podcasts while updating my spreadsheets and going for long, solitary walks by myself around a nearby lake.
But not this year.
This year, I'm locked in. It's still 100% fantasy podcasts for me with no ambulatory diversions.
We're less than a month away from Thanksgiving—and then the week after that is the final one of the fantasy regular season. The end isn't quite in sight, but it will be soon.
Now is no time to let up.
In the recent words of Chase Brown: "We just gotta finish … Finish. Finish. Finish."
Let's get into the Week 10 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my Week 10 fantasy football rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 10 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 10 Quarterback Rankings
Sam Darnold Upgrades to a Borderline QB1 in Week 10
I was skeptical about Sam Darnold entering the season, and in Weeks 1-2 I looked sharp as he struggled through the air (7.1 AY/A) and did almost nothing on the ground (2-14-0 rushing).
Since then, though, he has impressed, passing for 1,639 yards and 14 TDs to just three INTs in six games with an 11.2 AY/A. Those are MVP-esque numbers.
He still adds little as a runner, which has impacted his utility. Even with his aerial acrobatics, Darnold has just two top-five finishes this year and is the No. 16 QB in fantasy.
But he still has a solid floor: In all but two games, Darnold has had 16+ points, and especially in a week with four teams on bye, that kind of consistency is attractive.
Nobody has a tougher schedule than Darnold in the second half of the season … but I don't see the Cardinals as a significant hindrance to fantasy production in Week 10.
They looked good on Monday Night Football against the Cowboys—but they were also coming off the bye, and now they have a one-day rest-and-preparation deficit and are playing their second straight game on the road.
On top of that, they suffered two injuries in their defensive back seven this past week with CB Max Melton (concussion) and LB Mack Wilson (ribs) exiting early.
I don't expect to see Darnold duplicate his Week 9 success (330 yards, four TDs passing), but with his current form and neutral-at-worst matchup, he upgrades to a low-end QB1 this week.
Marcus Mariota Is the Week 10 Waiver Wire Streamer
Yet once more, starter Jayden Daniels (elbow) is injured for the Commanders, and HC Dan Quinn has said that there's "no timetable" for his return.
Ugh.
I expect to see backup Marcus Mariota start at least for this week … and maybe for the rest of the season.
Mariota is rostered in just 5% of leagues, but he has done well (or at least well enough) when thrust into the field with the Commanders.
Last year, he played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in just two games. Although he wasn't the starter in either contest, he passed for 366 yards and four TDs and (more importantly) added 16-90-1 rushing.
This year, he hasn't been as clean a thrower in his three starts (576 yards, four TDs passing to three INTs), but he has still gotten the job done on the ground (16-88-1 rushing).
I'm not gonna lie: His situation sucks. He will likely be without three of his top WRs.
- WR Terry McLaurin (quad): Out Week 9
- WR Noah Brown (groin, IR): Out since Week 3
- WR Luke McCaffrey (shoulder): Exited Week 9
But the Lions could also be without two secondary starters in CB Terrion Arnold (shoulder) and FS Kerby Joseph (knee), not to mention all the guys on IR.
- CB D.J. Reed (hamstring, IR)
- CB Khalil Dorsey (wrist, IR)
- CB Ennis Rakestraw (shoulder, IR)
At least the Commanders are playing their second straight game at home, and they'll probably need to throw heavily as
The Commanders will likely need to throw heavily as 8.5-point underdogs. With an elevated game total of 49.5 points, they could have more production than expected.
If you're in a sicko situation with your primary QB injured or on bye, Mariota could be serviceable as a mid-range QB2.
The Dropback
Jaxson Dart (Giants) at Bears: Dart's passing has markedly improved over the past month (8.3 AY/A), and since he became the starter in Week 4, Dart is the No. 1 QB in designed rush share (16%, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The Bears are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (52.3, per RBs Don't Matter), and I expect points in this game: While the consensus total is 48.5, the over is a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.
Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) vs. Patriots: Mayfield was subpar in Weeks 7-8 (4.8 AY/A), but both those games were on the road. Now he's at home off the Week 9 bye, and there's a chance he could get back WR Chris Godwin (fibula), RB Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder), and even RT Luke Goedeke (foot, IR). The Pats are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (26.5%, per FTN), and they could be without CB Christian Gonzalez (head) and LB Christian Elliss (hip) in their back seven.
Jared Goff (Lions) at Commanders: I normally don't like Goff outdoors, where he's a modest 41-37-2 ATS (2.2% ROI)—vs. 47-23-1 ATS (28.3%, per Action Network) when he's indoors—but the Commanders are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+3.4), and their secondary is dealing with injuries to CBs Marshon Lattimore (knee) and Trey Amos (hip), SS Will Harris (leg, IR), and FS Quan Martin (hamstring).
Davis Mills (Texans) vs. Jaguars: C.J. Stroud (concussion) exited last week with a head injury, so I expect Mills to draw the spot start this week. I don't know how desperate you are at QB, but the dude is at home, he has 26 NFL starts to his name, and the Jags are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.8). It could be worse—I could've mentioned Dillon Gabriel.
Notes On My Week 10 Quarterback Rankings
Byes: This week, the Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals, and Titans are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 10 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
Join Our Newsletter
Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.
By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
