I feel a sense of complacency around this time of year.

Well, it’s more content than complacent. I like establishing routines to keep my mind on track, but that takes time with the rush of the season. Honestly, I’m still tweaking things regarding what I discuss on shows or in written content through Thanksgiving. But by then, the structure is there. However, details can get lost in the shuffle. Managing fantasy rosters can have a similar feel.

You see a star player, glance at the matchup and keep it pushing. There was no consideration to sit Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 9. But a divisional opponent, with the extra time to game plan, made all the difference. It wouldn’t have changed our decision, but like WR/CB matchups, thinking through the range of outcomes can help us find ways to mitigate the potential letdown elsewhere on our squads.

Week 10 WR/CB Matchups to Target for Fantasy Football

Drake London at the Colts (Germany)

I’m not usually a “correlation equals causation” kind of guy, but roll with me for a second. Michael Penix Jr. has finished as a top-12 QB in three weeks. One of his WRs has stood out in each of them.

• Week 1: 36% (target rate), 34% (air yard share)
• Week 4: 38%, 44%
• Week 9: 44%, 56%

Week 6 is the only game this season where the Falcons tried to make the whole plane out of Drake London, and it didn’t pull Penix into a viable performance. Anyway, outside of Atlanta’s WR1 posterizing Patriots’ defenders, the ideal pecking order for the Falcons’ passing game came into focus.

Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts took on the secondary options, and Darnell Mooney worked the perimeter. It kept Penix on time, and New England’s slot corner, Marcus Jones, made things easier. And looking ahead to London’s matchup against the Colts, we’ve got the same setup.

• Receiving YPG (Allowed to Slot WRs): 67.7, 3rd most
• Passing Success Rate: 67.9%, Highest
• Fantasy PPG: 17.7, 5th most

New Colts CB Sauce Gardner has played eight snaps in the slot, so I’m not expecting any immediate reinforcements to cover London. The rest of Indianapolis’ coverage options have given up a league-high 56 receptions to inside receivers. With Penix and London clicking again, his chance for another top-6 finish in Week 10 is easy to see.

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Tetairoa McMillan vs the Saints

The information I’m about to lay out is why you read articles like this. It’s analysis you can’t get anywhere else. Tetairoa McMillan is 6-foot-5. The heights of the primary Saints’ CBs are:

• Alontae Taylor: 6-foot
• Kool-Aid McKinstry: 5-foot-11

I’m providing you with this cutting-edge information because this will certainly be the reason McMillan closes in on the Top 12 this week. Jokes aside, it worked for Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams last week.

All right, let’s move past the jokes. Yes, McMillan should still be a high-end option this weekend, and it’s not just because he’s taller than the defenders he’ll see. As our Utilization game logs highlight, when Bryce Young does throw the ball, it’s usually toward the rookie receiver.

Without question, McMillan has the talent, and his Week 10 situation lines up with his projection for a top-24 finish. The Saints rank 21st in pressure rate, giving more time for Young to operate behind the offensive line. He’s been under duress on more than a third of his dropbacks in all but two games this season. But also, there’s a chance the defensive plan won’t even focus on Young. Instead, New Orleans may look to limit Rico Dowdle.

The Rams mixed things up with 13-personnel to indicate a run play and then pass out of the formation. Also, the last two RBs to go up against the Saints saw a stacked box on over 60% of their carries. More defenders up front means fewer in coverage. And if this schematic shift leaves McMillan in single coverage, he’ll wind up with a boxscore similar to the Rams from last week.

Sneaky Matchups

 Rome Odunze vs the Giants

I know. I can feel your eyes rolling at the mere suggestion of starting Rome Odunze after his Week 9 bagel against my Bengals. No, I’m not going to be yet another analyst making excuses for Odunze. But if I can add context and take advantage of a situation, I’ll do it. Let’s start with some details from his last game.

It’s not ALL bad for the Bengals’ secondary, and DJ Turner is (probably) the lone bright spot on that side of the ball. Of the 88 CBs with more than 100 coverage snaps over the last six weeks, Turner has the highest forced incompletion rate (35%), per PFF. And with Odunze seeing all of his targets from the outside, everyone got to benefit from HC Ben Johnson sacrificing the second-year receiver to Cincinnati’s one good corner. Now, let’s use that same defensive stat and see how the Giants’ defenders hold up.

• Cor’Dale Flott: 11%
• Deonte Bank: 8%

Of course, the Giants have the same problems as the Bengals in terms of run defense. But New York’s coverage doesn’t push passing games to the middle. There’s a reason why players like Colston Loveland and Olamide Zaccheaus knifed through Cincinnati’s secondary and Jauan Jennings and DeVonta Smith beat the Giants. With the exterior being the larger problem for HC Brian Daboll’s crew, Odunze has the path to get back into the fantasy spotlight in Week 10.

Deebo Samuel vs the Lions

We might be seeing Deebo Samuel back to (somewhat) full strength after he missed Week 7. I say “might” because it’s not like the opportunities aren’t still there for him in the offense. He’s been over a 70% route rate and 20% of the targets in the two games before and after his absence. However, his 7.6 YAC per reception was the highest it’s been since September. Coincidentally, the Lions are the best coverage unit for a receiver like Samuel to face.

• YAC per Reception (to Slot WRs Allowed – last six games): 5.8, 4th-most
• Passing Success Rate: 63.8%, 2nd
• PPR PPG Allowed: 23.4, 10th

Terry McLaurin will likely miss Week 10, and we’ve already seen how the offense works without Jayden Daniels. Marcus Mariota has averaged 192 passing YPG in his three starts, with a passing TD in each. As the Lions are 8.5-point road favorites, hinting at a pass-friendly script for Washington, Samuel should be well inside the WR2 conversation for this weekend.

Matchups to Avoid

Jaylen Waddle vs the Bills

Divisional rematches are always tough to prognosticate. It’s the “I know what you know” game that can play tricks on us, since the teams have already met. So, I’ll exercise caution in saying we should lower expectations for Jaylen Waddle. He has at least ascended into the WR1 role we anticipated for him with Tyreek Hill gone for the season.

However, for historical context, Waddle has eight regular-season games against the Bills and crossed 100 yards just twice against them. Those games happened in 2022. He’s scored a TD in three. His last one came in Week 3. But without having an insulated pre-snap alignment (just 14.3% target rate from the slot since Week 5), Waddle will have to rely on high-degree-of-difficulty targets to produce. It’s why his catchable target rate has sat at 69% (fourth among the Dolphins WRs) without Hill around. But there’s a (slim) chance for him to be serviceable.

• Drake London: 10-158-1
• Stefon Diggs: 12-146-0

Both the Falcons and Patriots spammed targets to their WR1s on out-breaking routes to move the ball. I’d put Waddle slightly below both receivers in route-running skills, but he’s not far off in his ability at the catch point. So while I’m dropping my expectations, there’s still a path for him to perform in Week 10.

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