
Dwain McFarland breaks down the risers and fallers in his Week 11 fantasy football rankings, including why he's benching Tony Pollard and starting Nick Chubb.

It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 11 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers in the ranks to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.
Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.
Over the last three games, Wilson has averaged 246 yards and two passing TDs per game, which align closely with some of his best passing seasons with the Seahawks.
And get this: from 2015 to 2021, Wilson averaged 246 yards and two passing TDs per game.
Wilson isn't the same scrambler he once was, but we have to acknowledge that the 35-year-old vet could be experiencing a late-career resurgence as a passer. He has averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game with QB3, QB21, and QB9 finishes.
The Ravens present a massive challenge for the Steelers' ground attack, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game on the slate (73). However, they are the number one matchup for opposing passing attacks, sanctioning 315 per contest. Baltimore allows 21.4 fantasy points per game just through the air, providing the No. 1 fantasy boost to QBs at 4.7 points per game.
Wilson UPGRADES to my QB8 in the Fantasy Life rankings.
Isiah Pacheco's 21-day practice window opened, but he is unlikely to play this weekend, per Andy Reid. That leaves the door open for at least one more outing from Hunt, who has an 8.3 Utilization Score and has averaged 17.8 points per game over the last month of football.
Historically, backs with a similar Utilization Score have averaged 16.3 fantasy points and operated as low-end RB1s.
The Bills allow 123 yards per game and have green-lighted the second-highest fantasy boost to the RB position at five points per game. Buffalo also runs the seventh-most zone coverage, which could funnel a few extra targets to the backfield.
Hunt UPGRADES to high-end RB2 territory.
Estime took over as the primary early-down back for Denver in Week 10, bogarting 64% of the team's rushing attempts. He also led the team in snaps (45%) but gave way to Javonte Williams in the two-minute offense, limiting his route participation to 21%.
It is hard to say if Estime will expand his role to take on a more significant portion of the passing downs moving forward, but he gets a solid rushing matchup against the Falcons in Week 11. Atlanta has conceded the eighth-most rushing yards per game (130), and oddsmakers have the matchup as a close game, with the Broncos favored by two points.
Estime UPGRADES to high-end RB3 territory and could scratch out an RB2 finish if he punches in a touchdown.
Pickens has an 8.4 Utilization Score, averaging 18 fantasy points in three games with Wilson at the helm. While his targets haven't increased (seven per game), the quality of his targets has improved dramatically. Wilson has unlocked the vertical and red zone elements of Pickens' game.
Pickens' fantasy points per game have skyrocketed by 7.9 points per game with Wilson.
The Ravens have empowered the No. 1 fantasy boost to the WR position at 9.3 points per game. The average NFL defense has allowed 26.9 fantasy points to opposing pass catchers per contest–Baltimore has licensed 40.3.
Pickens UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 status and is a SMASH PLAY as my WR7.
Since the departure of Amari Cooper, Tillman has averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game and has an 8.9 Utilization Score. He leads the team in targets, air yards, and endzone targets over that stretch.
Historically, receivers in Tillman's Utilization Score range have been WR1 producers. The Browns' passing game could be highly volatile with Jameis Winston at the helm, but we know the boom-game potential exists.
The Saints have allowed the third-most passing yards per game on the slate (259) and no longer have the services of Marshon Lattimore, who was traded to the Commanders. Tillman is a strong sell-high candidate due to concerns around Winston's long-term role, but the second-year wide receiver is in a good spot in Week 11.
Tillman UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status and offers high-end WR1 upside.
The Saints only have a few offensive options, with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out. Taysom Hill is one of the last players standing, and he saw a season-high 63% route participation in Week 10.
The multi-purpose weapon also has a 15% rush share since returning from injury in Week 8. Hill could see 7 to 10 opportunities this weekend, which doesn't account for his ability to pass the ball. Hill UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 territory and is in the mix with names like Tucker Kraft and Kyle Pitts.
Darnold enjoyed a nice four-game stretch against beatable pass defenses, including matchups against the Colts and Jaguars. While he was a usable fantasy QB for that stretch, he underwhelmed, averaging 16.7 points with QB11, QB16, QB7, and QB20 finishes.
Now, Darnold moves into a tougher stretch of the schedule, starting with a Titans defense that allows only 11.4 fantasy points per game passing. Tennessee has granted the fewest yards per game passing (154).
The Vikings are seven-point favorites and have a decent team total (23.2), so Darnold isn't a must-bench. However, he falls to high-end QB2 territory after enjoying a mid-range QB1 ranking the last two weeks.
Darnold DOWNGRADES to high-end QB2 territory.
Pollard tallied his lowest rush share (50%) of the season and his lowest route participation rate (45%) since Week 1. He briefly left with an injury, which could have contributed to his downturn in playing time, but the return of Tyjae Spears was also a factor. Spears took all of the two-minute offense and long-down-and-distance snaps (LDD).
I can't tell you definitively that Pollard's role has changed, but I am playing it safe with many other viable running back options. He isn't a must-bench option, but finding reasons to force him into a lineup is challenging.
Pollard DOWNGRADES to borderline RB2 status.
With Dak Prescott out for the season, the entire Cowboys offense gets a downgrade, but Ferguson is one of those hit the hardest. The thesis behind Ferguson was an 18 to 20% target share TE could be fine in a high-end offense. Ferguson has a 6.1 Utilization Score and a 16% target share over the last four games.
Dallas has the third-lowest team total (17.3), and the Texans have held opponents to the eighth fewest passing yards per game (196). The Cowboys can only get better after registering 66 passing yards last weekend, but multiple offenses have struggled with backup quarterbacks this season.
Ferguson DOWNGRADES to low-end TE2 status. He is in the same range as Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry, and Pat Freiermuth.
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Week 1: Sam Darnold (hit), J.K. Dobbins (hit), Jalen McMillan (hit), Zach Ertz (miss)
Week 2: Daniel Jones (hit), Zack Moss (miss), Adonai Mitchell (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)
Week 3: Aaron Rodgers (hit), D'Andre Swift (miss), Jordan Whittington (miss), Tyler Conklin (hit)
Week 4: Caleb Williams (miss), Jerome Ford (hit), Darnell Mooney (miss - But the PROCESS WAS RIGHT, he screamed … as his wife and children walked out of his life forever)
Week 5: Deshaun Watson (miss), Trey Sermon (hit), Tutu Atwell (hit)
Week 6: Daniel Jones (miss), Tyjae Spears (null-injured), Jalen Tolbert (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)
Week 7: Sam Darnold (miss), Tank Bigsby (hit), Jordan Addison (miss), Dalton Schultz (miss)
Week 8: Caleb Williams (miss), Raheem Mostert (hit), Dontayvion Wicks (miss), Cade Otton (hit)
Week 9: Malik Willis (null-did not play), Alexander Mattison (miss - I am an idiot), Xavier Worthy (miss), Jonnu Smith (hit)
Week 10: Russell Wilson (hit), Jaylen Warren (miss), Xavier Legette (miss), T.J. Hockenson (hit)
Season: 17 of 36
Let's go, you sickos.
Nix is only in 17% of lineups and available in 66% of leagues.
Nix has averaged 19.4 fantasy points over the last four weeks. During that stretch, he averaged 222 yards and 1.3 touchdowns through the air. While those aren't huge numbers, they are enough when you run as often as Nix. The rookie ranks seventh in designed rushing attempt share (12%) and scramble rate (7%) out of all QBs with at least 175 snaps.
The Falcons have conceded the fifth-most points per game to fantasy quarterbacks through the air (15.9), opening the door for Nix to boom as a passer and rusher in Week 11. The last time he did that was against Carolina in Week 8, which he torched for 29.8 fantasy points.
Nix UPGRADES to QB12.
Chubb is on 83% of rosters but only in 27% of lineups.
Chubb has yet to come through in the fantasy box score, but his workload over the last two games has been substantial, with a 72% rush share.
The veteran back heavily depends on a good game script, but the Browns are in a good spot this weekend. Cleveland is only a two-point dog against a Saints defense coughing up the third-most rushing yards per game (141). Opponents have gouged New Orleans for the second-most fantasy points per game on the ground (21.9).
Chubb UPGRADES to borderline RB2 territory and offers RB1 upside.
Meyers is on 73% of rosters but only in 27% of lineups.
Expectations around the Raiders are low this weekend as eight-point dogs with an 18.3-point team total against the Dolphins. However, we have a four-game sample of Meyers without Adams, and the man has a 32% target share, averaging nine per game.
Meyers has an 8.1 Utilization Score over that stretch, which has been borderline WR1 to low-end WR2 territory over the last four years. Only 4% of WRs in that range didn't manage at least a WR2 finish.
Meyers UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status.
Dissly is available in 94% of leagues and only in 3% of lineups.
Dissly has parlayed his two games as the starter in Weeks 7 and 8 with Hayden Hurst out into a long-term starting role. Over the last two games with Hurst back, Dissly led the way with a 67% route participation and 21% target share.
A higher route participation would be preferable on a team that loves to run the damn ball. However, the Chargers have shown a willingness to throw recently, and the Bengals could force a shootout. The matchup offers the fourth-highest game total (47), and the Chargers carry the seventh-best team total (24.5).
Dissly is a mid-range TE2 but offers TE1 upside if you are in a pinch.
If you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.
Season: 10 of 13
See downgrades.



