Using our mid-season "correlative thought experiment" to uncover fantasy streams proved successful once again. Sure, J.J. McCarthy only scored 15 fantasy points, but that was higher than Lamar Jackson—while Dalton Schultz’s 7-56-1 currently stands as the weekend’s TE4. I know Schultzy bailed me out of at least one rough spot yesterday.

Let the good times roll!

Check out the original piece for a brief intro if it slipped past your radar. Long story short, defensive EPA tested so strongly against fantasy points allowed at QB, RB and WR that the tires demanded a good kicking. Football’s so contextual, it takes a man-plus-machine approach like EPA to capture as much nuance as possible.

With such high R scores, could it be as simple as targeting the top of this chart and working our way down? 

So far, so good. Quick note: I zoomed in to only include the last six weeks to compensate for some injuries, schematic changes, etc.

Hard to lose with the tools we use… Let's jump in!

Week 11's Top Streaming QB

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at WAS

It’s said doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results is the definition of insanity. If the reverse is also true, then one of the most sane moves in all of fantasy football this month is hunting for fantasy points through the air against the Commanders. I’ve never felt more normal!

A bad defense to begin with, the last shred of Washington’s defensive equity flushed down the toilet after losing pressure, sack, and TFL leader Dorance Armstrong. Sigh. Not sure anyone’s been worse against the pass over the last month and a half than WAS. This isn’t changing anytime soon.

In that same timeframe, the Commanders bottom-fed at 30th or worse in (takes deep breath): 

• EPA/dropback (-0.31)
• opposing passer rating (118.2)
• completion rate allowed (72.4%)
• yards/reception (12.5)
• yards after catch/reception (7.2)
• +20-yard completions (20) aaaaand 
• passing TD (15). 

Not good.

Don’t look now but Miami just circled the wagons around Buffalo, hanging +30 points for the second time in three weeks. Tua Tagovailoa finished QB8 or better in both winning scenarios by the way — against much better defenses than these Commies. Plus, he’s always been known as a pressure-sensitive passer—Tua’a completion rate is more than 23% better when not under duress!

Given time to operate with a bonafide WR1 in Jaylen Waddle and Washington’s poor tackling, this stream’s set up perfectly to flow for us Sunday.

Week 11's Top Streaming RB

Emari Demercado, ARI vs SF

Never thought we’d be targeting Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers as a consistently poor performer in EPA—but one team can only sustain so many injuries. First Nick Bosa, then Fred Warner, and now DE Mykel Williams (knee) — they all had strong seasons cut short. It’s getting late early for this defensive unit.

Missing multiple starters in the front seven has destroyed the Niners’ tackle rates, and with it all the critical macros over the last six weeks: -0.17 EPA/play, 378.7 yards/game, 6.1 yards/play, 48.7% success rate. Look out Cincinnati, there’s a new streaming target in town.

Arizona’s backfield is completely disregarded by the fantasy space, despite the lion’s share of touches very much up for grabs. Don’t believe me? The tandem of Bam Knight and Emari Demercado’s rostership per Yahoo is only 60%... combined!

Trust me, I get the skepticism for Demercado. For all intents and purposes, Zonovan “Bam” Knight’s technically the starter, getting first crack plus most baseline work. Whatever.

It doesn’t take a spreadsheet quant or a tape-grinding guru to see Emari Demercado is clearly the more explosive player, providing the best chance to win (and he's the same size as Knight, mind you). Granted it’s only 26 rushes but if 9.0 yards/attempt doesn’t deserve more run, what does?

It’s only a matter of time before talent meets utilization, and perhaps a third straight week of leading the backfield in fantasy scoring will finally spark a flippening in the desert.

Week 11's Top Streaming WR

Calvin Austin III, PIT vs. CIN

You have zero chance of escaping a streaming piece worth its weight in digital salt this season without picking on the hapless Bengals at least once. No other team allowed over 400 yards of offense per game—except for Cincy of course, north of 425. Wow.

Cincinnati’s inability to stop the run bleeds into the secondary, making them especially vulnerable to solid play-action attacks—one of Pittsburgh’s calling cards. Sure, DK Metcalf may be universally rostered but Sunday’s one of the rare occasions to queue up his Steel City counterpart, Calvin Austin III.

Usually we wouldn’t have access to the clear WR2 on a division-leading team in November—yet here we are. I blame Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers' unnatural alliance to run the league’s slowest operation. No one averages fewer than PIT’s 7.2 seconds on the playclock at the time of snap. Zzzzzzzz.

Austin’s already known for his ability in the slot but don’t put my man in a box—there’s evolving utilization here worthy of attention. Pittsburgh’s former fourth-rounder commanded 14 of 16 (88%) 2-WR only snaps against the Chargers. Suddenly, earning +7 targets in three of five feels more stable than wonky—making the 12% rostership rate border on criminal for my money.

Everybody eats against the Bengals.

Week 11's Top Streaming TE (by receptions allowed/game)

Tyler Conklin, LAC at JAX

Remember tight ends break the mold regarding EPA/play, giving way to receptions allowed/game instead. There are quality streaming team targets available (SEA, CIN), except in those two scenarios we’re forced to choose between a Ram or Steeler — teams almost assured to split TE receptions three ways. Big no thanks from me.

Next up’s the best of a bad situation. Rookie breakout TE Oronde Gadsden exited Sunday’s contest with a nasty looking knee injury, which will require an MRI. Hopefully the phenom’s ok but for now, the Chargers’ season rolls on.

In the 25 minutes after Gadsden departed, Tyler Conklin played ~78% of snaps, earning a single target he reeled in. Keep in mind LAC commanded that game handily, only needing to drop back five times in the fourth quarter. Any tight end tracking for a full complement of routes in a Justin Herbert-led offense will check my streaming box, especially in a plus matchup.