Making any singular fantasy football start/sit decision usually comes down to some combination of four factors: Volume, talent, offensive environment and matchup. I typically prefer to lean more into the first three variables and let perceived on-paper mismatches serve as more of a tiebreaker, but then again sometimes VERY lopsided matchups can give fantasy footballers an edge in attempting to predict the future of this beautifully ridiculous sport.

This brings us to today's goal: Breaking down some of the week's biggest mismatches in an attempt to get an edge in fantasy football land. We'll be looking at the following factors:

• Explosive plays
• Run-game advantages in the trenches
• Pressure
• Pass yards per dropback
• EPA

A lot of this will be done through my weekly Mismatch Manifesto charts that combine commonly-used matchup metrics in an attempt to turn things into a one-way street as opposed to always having to go, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y." To put the following data simply: Blue is good for the offense in question, and red is bad. Cool? Cool.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Week 11 Fantasy Football Mismatches

Explosions in the sky: Bounceback incoming for Jordan Love and company?

The below chart denotes the combined explosive play rate for both passing (15+ yards) and rushing (10+ yards) through 10 weeks of action.

It's hard to not be intrigued by the bounceback potential for these Packers WRs—particularly given the Giants defense's status as:

1. Bad (7th most PPR points per game allowed to opposing WRs)
2. Man-coverage heavy (3rd most man-heavy defense in the league)

WRs are targeted more often than RBs and TEs against man coverage due to the reality that defenders aren't able to keep everything in front of them the same way that they can in zone. It's clear that two parties in particular stand to benefit from this matchup when looking at the WR room's man/zone splits.

Packers WRs targets per route run vs. man/zone:

• Romeo Doubs: 26% man, 19% zone
• Dontayvion Wicks: 35% man, 12% zone
• Matthew Golden: 13% man, 13% zone
• Christian Watson: 10% man, 15% zone
• Savion Williams: 13% man, 29% zone

Doubs has been the No. 1 WR all season long and is very much deserving of borderline WR2 treatment in this spot, but Wicks is the wild card who could put together a good game in his own right should Golden (shoulder) remain out of the lineup.

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More b-e-a-utiful matchups: The Seahawks, Bears and Dolphins are also set up quite well in their quest to create big plays in the passing game. It'd sure make sense if Jaylen Waddle puts on a show for Madrid come Sunday morning. The man has been absolutely balling ever since Tyreek Hill was lost for the season. Even his one down performance can mostly be explained away by some brutal Cleveland weather:

• Week 5: 6 receptions-110 yards-1 TD, half-PPR WR4
• Week 6: 6-95-0, WR17
• Week 7: 1-15-0, WR88
• Week 8: 5-99-1, WR4
• Week 9: 6-82-0, WR27
• Week 10: 5-84-1, WR11

It's 2025 guys, get it together: The Giants, Jaguars and Browns stand out as the offenses least expected to produce some explosive chunk gains through the air. Of course, the newfound presence of Jameis Winston under center should at least make things more entertaining in New York. The gunslinger leads the league with a 9.5 average target depth since 2020—0.9 yards higher than the next-closest QB! It'd be a lot cooler if Darius Slayton (hamstring) is healthy enough to benefit from the experience; look for Wan'Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson to soak up plenty of targets either way against Micah Parsons and the Packers' seventh-ranked scoring defense.

The Mount Rushmore of Best RB Run-Game Matchups

The following chart denotes every offense's combined *RB* rush yards before contact from Weeks 1-10.

The top-4 RBs feature:

Bills RB James Cook: Scored five times in Weeks 1-4, but has made just two trips to the end zone in his last five contests. Of course, Cook continues to get fed the rock and even got going as a receiver again last week: His 5 receptions against the Dolphins were more than he had in Weeks 4-9 combined! You don't need me to tell you to start Cook in this smash spot; just realize true blowup upside is firmly on the table against a group that had few answers for TreVeyon Henderson last Sunday.

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: Barkley continues to flash his ridiculous tackle-breaking ability every week, but his 3.9 yards per rush still pale in comparison to last season's blistering 5.8 mark. The hope here is that the Eagles' banged-up offensive line continues to better gel as the season goes on—there have been a few more holes to go around in recent weeks relative to what was going down in September.

Eagles RB rush yards before contact per carry:

• Weeks 1-5: 1.2 (16th)
• Weeks 6-10: 2.2 (3rd)

Bears RB D'Andre Swift: It seemed possible that the Bears would siphon some of Swift's workload to Kyle Monangai after the rookie's big-time Week 9 performance, but that simply wasn't the case. Swift has really put his best foot forward since returning from the team's Week 5 bye. He ranks among the league's top-4 backs in yards per carry, EPA per rush and explosive run rate since Week 6. The result has been 19.1 PPR points per game—good for the seventh-highest mark among all RBs!

Lions RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery: The only "concern" here is the potential for this now Dan Campbell-led offensive attack to embrace the pass a bit more than before. Overall, the Lions posted a -6% (tied for 31st) dropback rate over expected in Weeks 1-9, only to move up to +8% (tied for 2nd!) in Week 10—AKA when Campbell took over play calling. Gibbs is obviously a top-5 RB in any matchup thanks to his game-breaking dual-threat ability, but I'm less optimistic with Montgomery catching his stride in this spot.

More RBs with plus matchups on the ground: Feature RJ Harvey, Aaron Jones and Bijan Robinson. The likely absence of J.K. Dobbins (foot) puts Harvey in the driver's seat in Denver. The rookie has been stuck with minimal touches inside an offense that also insists on keeping Tyler Badie involved. Fantasy football veterans know better than to assume anything when it comes to trying to predict Sean Payton's player usage; just realize Harvey has made the most out of his touches all season (position-best 1.33 PPR points per touch!). I'm willing to fire up Harvey as a legit mid-tier RB2 alongside guys like Jaylen Warren and Jones should Dobbins be unable to suit up against the Chiefs.

Tough sledding ahead: Things aren't looking too great for the Browns, Bengals and Seahawks this week in the whole "open up big run lanes" department. This has been the case for Quinshon Judkins for the better part of the last five weeks, as the rookie continues to get force fed the football, but man, it's been tough sledding in recent weeks. It's hardly just on Judkins—Cleveland is dead last in RB rush yards before contact per carry on the season—either way it's been a tale of two halves for Judkins this season.

Judkins first half vs. second half splits:

• Weeks 1-5: 4.8 yards per carry (13/42), 15.5 PPR points per game (RB12)
• Weeks 6-10: 3.1 yards per carry (41/44), 11.3 PPR points per game (RB24)

Could Aaron Rodgers have all day to throw this week?

It sure looks like it based on combined Weeks 1-10 pressure rates between this week's offensive line and pass-rush matchups.

Old man Rodgers might be coming off one of the worst games of his career, but then again, Rodgers is also a few short weeks removed from lighting up the Bengals for 249 yards and 4 scores. The two biggest certainties that we have in this world at the moment are that the Bengals and Cowboys are horrendous on defense, so continuing to trust the QBs facing them seems like a good idea.

QBs who could be doing their best David Bowie impressions (get it? Under pressure?): Include Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams and Cam Ward. Still, Williams' sack-avoid spin move might be the best the position has seen since prime Tony Romo—the man has been credited with 26 tackles avoided this season, nine more than the next-closest QB! Hell, Williams also has a league-best 15 tackles avoided on just pass plays—AKA he's avoided more sacks than any QB in the league (shoutout to Ward and Jaxson Dart for also appearing atop the leaderboard). There were some wildly awesome escape-artist moments on film last week in particular—somehow Williams has completely flipped the script on his biggest sack-related issues as a rookie.

Williams sack rate and pressure-to-sack rate in 2024-25 (among 47 QBs):

• 2024: 10.8% sack rate (45th), 28.2% pressure-to-sack rate (46th)
• 2025: 4.6% sack rate (5th), 12.2% pressure-to-sack rate (3rd)

Guess who could have ALL day to throw this week: Well, the numbers say Michael Penix and whoever winds up under center for the 49ers could join Rodgers as the week's top QBs who should have clean pockets on more dropbacks than not. It sounds like Brock Purdy will be that guy, pal, as he said he's ready to go. Friendly reminder that Purdy ranks first in the Super Bowl era in career yards per attempt (8.8) and passer rating (103.7) among all QBs with 500+ career pass attempts. Don't be surprised if this San Fran passing game puts its best foot forward in some of its cozy late-season matchups.

• Week 11 at Cardinals: 18th in EPA allowed per dropback
• Week 12 vs. Panthers: 24th
• Week 13 at Browns: 14th
• Week 15 vs. Titans: 27th
• Week 16 at Colts: 5th
• Week 17 vs. Bears: 21st

Are the Seahawks willing to let Sam Darnold cook?

I hope so! Sam Darnold easily has the week's best matchup in terms of combined pass yards per dropback.

It's hard to overstate just how good Darnold has been this season. Nobody has a better overall combination of EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected.

The only "problem" has been Darnold's overall lackluster volume. The man threw only 12 passes last week! Overall, the Seahawks' -6% dropback rate over expected is tied for the fourth-lowest mark in the league—this is the primary reason why Darnold is just the QB19 in fantasy points per game despite playing the position better than just about anyone this season.

There should also be plenty of aerial success from the: Dolphins, Steelers, Lions and Packers. It'd make sense if plenty of Pittsburgh's production comes courtesy of the tight ends, considering the Bengals are easily the league's worst defense against the position. Of course, the Steelers' insistence on keeping up to four parties involved at TE makes it tough to feel too confident about any individual party. Consider: The Steelers TE room as a group have averaged the fifth-most PPR points per game in the league, but their top-scoring individual Pat Freiermuth is just the TE29!

Local birds beware: On the bad side of things, the Titans, Panthers, Jaguars and Browns profile as the bottom four worst passing attacks. This is gross. I get it. BUT: Jerry Jeudy finally showed signs of life in Week 10, and he carries the position's single-best schedule in Weeks 11-14 before getting the third-best playoff stretch thanks to winnable matchups against the Bears and Steelers in Weeks 15 and 17,  respectively. Again, totally disgusting, but he's probably the most affordable top option among the top-5 WR groups in the Vikings, 49ers, Browns, Commanders and Eagles.

Get your popcorn ready for Eagles-Lions on Sunday night football

The following chart denotes every offense's matchup in combined EPA per play based on their Weeks 1-10 performance.

Underdog watch: There are three teams with an on-paper advantage in combined EPA per play, yet are underdogs in the betting markets: Bears (+3), Cardinals (+3) and Lions (+2.5).

Blowout alert: The Texans, Packers, and Steelers rather easily boast the largest expected offensive advantages in combined EPA per play.

Shootout city: Other than the Eagles-Lions matchup, Giants-Packers, Dolphins-Commanders and Steelers-Bengals boast the highest game-wide numbers.

This could be ugly: Titans-Texans and Browns-Ravens profile as the two matchups that could feature the most total offensive despair.

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