Week 11 Smash Starts For Fantasy Football: DeVonta Smith Is Ready To Fly High
Mark Drumheller breaks down his three favorite smash starts for Week 11 of the fantasy football season.
This time of the year, there is always an inherent need to convince ourselves that there is plenty of football in front of us. The reality is, it’s the big lie floated by your leaguemates in an effort to keep you from being locked to the most critical stretch of the season.
Not us, not this week. We’re ready for battle with three Week 11 smash starts that will propel our push towards the fantasy postseason. The time is now ...
Smash Starts For Week 11 Fantasy Football
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 10 brought the fantasy world some incredible highs with some hard-to-watch lows. The Jaxson Dart injury, Carolina turning into kittens, the Bills’ offense, just to name a few disappointments. Oh, how can I forget that all three primetime games made me feel like Week 11 couldn’t get here fast enough.
The biggest letdown of them all: Not being able to attack the Cincinnati defense.
Just as predictable as the sun rising every morning, the Bengals are back off the bye providing us with another auto-smash spot. And we’re taking it for all it’s worth.
I repeat, do not let anyone push you off Jaylen Warren this week. I am fully aware Mike Tomlin weaponized his “Dad-voice” when pressed about Warren’s usage, and still, I’m not flinching.
Tomlin is an outstanding coach who is in the business of winning football games. At 5-4, the Steelers are reeling and will exploit the Bengals in the easiest and most efficient way—the running game. Besides, Warren doesn’t need to be a workhorse to be a fantasy superstar this week.
The last time the Cincinnati defense played football, they allowed 283 yards rushing to the Chicago Bears—in a single game. Rookie Kyle Monangai pulled 198 total yards himself. Over the last three weeks, the Bengals have been gashed for an NFL-high 7.3 yards per rush.
A seven-day bye week can not heal the wounds of this hemorrhaging defense. The smell of blood is in the air, and we’re on the hunt with Warren in our lineup.
Warren racked up 158 total yards on 20 touches when he faced the Bengals a few weeks back. I’m expecting even more for the encore.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
You can point to coverage schemes, gamescript, or plain-old variance. But it’s also mid-November, and for fantasy purposes, DeVonta Smith is the Philadelphia Eagles WR1. Smith leads the defending champs in targets (62), receptions (48) and receiving yards (657). With 249 yards now separating him from A.J. Brown, it’s not really close.
Smith also sports a 76 UR while commanding 56% of the Eagles endzone targets. We saw Jalen Hurts rely on Smith’s big-play ability to pull ahead of the Packers on Monday night, and I’m confident the Eagles’ reliance on the former Heisman trophy winner continues this week.
Here’s what elevates Smith to smash-start territory. The Lions allow the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs this season (29.3), while consistently showing up against the run (ninth EPA per rush). Philly’s mediocre success running the rock on early downs (16th) should have Hurts looking for Smith’s dynamic play-making to produce explosives against the Lions defense.
Detroit deploys man coverage at the fourth-highest frequency in the league (34.3%). Smith, a 50-50 ball merchant, hauled in eight receptions for 114 yards against the Broncos, another solid defense with a comparable man-coverage rate (34.6%).
As much as I expect the Eagles receiver to dominate Detroit’s corners, this is more about Smith evolving as Hurts' go-to receiver in the offense. Over the past five games, the fifth-year receiver has averaged 8+ targets, 6+ receptions and 100 yards receiving per game.
That’s the level of production I want in my lineup. Smith is currently ranked as the consensus WR15, projected for 10.9 points. I see him as a player with high upside potential against a Detroit secondary nursing injuries to several key players.
Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks
The NFL West showdown between the Rams and Seahawks is, without a doubt, a “clear your calendar” game. No matter how you slice it, these two MVP-caliber quarterbacks throwing lasers all over the field will be appointment viewing.
Yes, I said it. Sam Darnold is having an MVP-caliber season.
While Stafford, the current frontrunner (and betting favorite) for the league’s Most Valuable Player award, garners all the Hollywood hype, Darnold is completely flying under the radar as a smash start on Sunday.
Darnold’s recent fantasy output might be a little deceiving based on the non-competitive nature of the last two games. The Seahawks have recently steamrolled their opponents, building 28-0 and 35-0 first-half leads against Washington and Arizona. In Week 9, Darnold delivered four straight touchdown drives to start the game versus the Commanders, and followed it up last week by carving up the Cardinals for three straight touchdown drives of 60+ yards.
Seattle’s offense is straight gas, and the stats back it up. In non-garbage time situations, Darnold’s efficiency metrics are off the charts. The former No.3 overall pick ranks first among all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite (0.276), Adj. EPA/Play (0.446), completion percentage (78.6%) and air yards (9.4).
The best part of Darnold’s storybook season is that, as long as Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on the field, ANY defense can get it. And that includes the Rams this Sunday. There is reason to believe the test awaiting in LA might not be as stiff as some might think.
Since Week 5, LA ranks 23rd in dropback success rate allowed. This is important considering they will be facing an uber-efficient offense in Seattle.
As pointed out by Clevanalytics earlier this week, LA hasn’t faced a gauntlet of QBs this season.
While LA did a nice job shutting down Daniel Jones, Hurts roasted the Rams for 29 fantasy points (pretty much all in one half). Mac Jones averaged 330 yards passing against LA while accumulating 22+ fantasy points in each.
I don’t see why Darnold can’t produce 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns, considering the strength of Seattle’s red zone offense (sixth). Having Stafford on the other side applying scorecard pressure for the entire game will ignite Darnold to smash through the ceiling of his projections.
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