Saturdays are my favorite part of the week.

They’re essentially “my Sunday” before the content slate starts over again, and I’m staring at new data and film clips. Anyway, I cook with my sons on Saturday. They find a recipe, last weekend it was buffalo-ranch smash burgers (highly recommend), we grab the ingredients and fill the kitchen with music and the smell of good food. It’s a blast, but you can tell when things are winding down. The meal is almost complete, but the details are still critical to ensure the meal comes together properly. Week 11 has the same feel to it.

Sunday will be the last international game. Trade deadlines are right around the corner. Analysts are discussing how you should best position your roster for the playoffs. We’re getting close to the end of the regular season. But every detail, like defensive matchups for WRs, should be a part of our process on the way to a championship.

Week 11 WR/CB Matchups to Target for Fantasy Football

Nico Collins vs. Titans

A downgrade at QB generally comes with a drop in expectations for the pass catchers. However, I’m fine with players proving me wrong when their talent exceeds the situation.

The simple solution is to “start your studs.” And Nico Collins is one of them. He has top-20 marks among all WRs in every opportunity metric. Accordingly, he’s been the Texans’ WR1 in all but two contests—one of which he only played less than 60% of the snaps. But the real concern came with Davis Mills starting in place of C.J. Stroud last week (and will likely happen in Week 11) and its impact on Collins. Luckily, Mills graduated from the “just-throw-it-to-your-good-players” school of thought.

• Target Rate: 33%, second highest of the season
• Air Yard Share: 45%, third most of the season

This week will be the divisional rematch between the Texans and Titans, but Collins already tagged them for 79 yards on 4 catches back in Week 4. Since then, Stefon Diggs racked up 69 yards against them, and both Michael Pittman (9-95-1) and Quentin Johnston (6-53-1) found the end zone. As the Titans have allowed the ninth-most PPR PPG to opposing WRs, Collins, even with Mills throwing him the ball, should be a priority starter for Week 11.

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DeVonta Smith vs. Lions

Let’s start here.

No, I’m not bringing this up as a reason to say the disconnect between Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown will continue. If anything, I’m willing to bet you’ll see a lot of “squeaky wheel” narratives in response to Browns’ comments. Besides, I don’t need him or Hurts to tell me DeVonta Smith has been the Eagles’ WR1. I can just look at our Utilization game logs and come to the same conclusion.

In the month leading up to their bye and the primetime matchup coming out of it, Smith has been at or above a 30% target rate in four of five games. He’s either tied for the lead or been the frontrunner in six of nine. However, Smith’s status doesn’t solely come from volume. The context highlights his criticality within the offense. Play-action, obvious passing situations, or whether Hurts faces pressure or 5+ pass rushers, it doesn’t matter. He’s looked to the Slim Reaper more often than anyone else. And facing the Lions isn’t as daunting as it sounds.

WR1s are averaging 17.4 PPR PPG against Detroit. Over the last four games, the only receiver with a +20% target share to face the Lions’ secondary and not score a TD was Emeka Egbuka, who logged just one limited practice ahead of the game due to a hamstring injury. Detroit will likely be without starting CB Terrion Arnold due to a concussion he sustained in Week 10, making Smith a priority starter for Sunday night.

Sneaky Matchups

Jordan Addison vs. Chicago

We’ve got two games with Jordan Addison catching passes (or trying to) from J.J. McCarthy. The good news is that at least McCarthy is looking his way.

Addison has a 23.4% target rate over his last two games and a 31.8% air yard share. And one week is buoying either metric. Addison’s total looks nearly tripled from the Detroit game to last Sunday (4 to 11), while his air yards dropped to 26.8%. And the decline was due to his route depth. The downfield receiver (25.5-yard aDOT in Week 9) was working as an intermediate option against Baltimore (11.1 aDOT). In essence, Head Coach Kevin O’Connell is figuring out what works best for his young QB. However, where the Bears are deficient, Addison excels.

• Yards per Game Allowed (to Outside WRs): 10th most
• Explosive Play Rate Allowed: 10th highest
• PPR PPG Allowed: 14th most

The last time the Bears didn’t give up a 20-yard catch was Week 6. From Darius Slayton to Tee Higgins to Rashod Bateman, Chicago’s corners haven’t been able to keep up with deep threats. The quality of targets for Addison is a reasonable concern, but all he needs is a couple to get into the top-24 conversation this weekend.

Quentin Johnston vs Jacksonville

Folks were saying Quentin Johnston wouldn’t be useful anymore after his bagel in Week 8.

And to be honest, I wasn’t fighting that hard against the narrative. That was mostly because of the offensive line injuries. After a quick bump up to 10.7 air yards against the Titans, Justin Herbert’s passing aDOT cratered against the Steelers (4.7). If you had given me only Herbert’s passing tendencies, I’d have assumed Johnston was left out. However, two things are at play here.

First, we’re seeing less of Keenan Allen. The franchise record holder has been more of a part-time player with just a 55% route rate over the last three weeks. His target share has been on the decline, too. Meanwhile, Johnston’s aDOT moved (down to 4.9) to accommodate his QB’s situation. Jacksonville has given up the 10th-most PPR PPG to opposing WRs, and with Herbert’s passing volume, Johnson has WR2 upside for Week 11.

Matchup to Avoid

Xavier Worthy vs Denver

Note: As always, “avoid” doesn’t mean “sit.” It implies that the matchups or trends around a player’s usage indicate we should lower our expectations regarding their projected output.

Normally, if I were going to make the case in favor of a WR, I’d use a steady uptick in targets and air yards as a good thing. And we’re seeing similar behavior for Xavier Worthy.

Rashee Rice hasn’t sent Worthy to the shadow realm. If anything, he’s forcing a 1A/1B situation with Patrick Mahomes as their QB. It’s what we’d want to see! However, the two columns in the middle are my concern.

Let’s take Week 9, for example. Mahomes threw deep on 28.9% of his dropbacks, which was a season-high mark. However, Buffalo’s defense pressured Mahomes in less than 2.5 seconds on 40% of those attempts. One was an underthrow to Worthy, and his other resulted in an interception. Denver’s defensive front (and secondary) creates a similar environment for both Mahomes and Worthy. So, if you’re looking for upside with a low floor, Worthy is your guy. But otherwise, the Chiefs’ WR2 may be tough to trust in Week 11.

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