
Ian Hartitz presents Ian's Manifesto for Week 12, with bold predictions, streamers, detailed analysis, defenses to attack, and more for fantasy managers.

Ian Hartitz presents Ian's Manifesto for Week 12, a look at bold predictions, streamers, and more for fantasy football success.
And just like that: Week 12 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!
Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Pretty awesome for almost everyone involved. NFL RedZone viewers? Yup. Browns fans? Yes. Opposing defenses? Mostly. Fantasy managers: OH F*CK YEAH BABY!
We'll focus on the latter scenario here because, you know, this is a fantasy-themed column after all, but yeah: The presence of Jameis Winston under center has taken the Browns from arguably the single-most depressing offense in the league to maybe the NFL's most fantasy-friendly unit.
Jameis himself has certainly helped out QB-needy rosters, throwing for an average of 321 yards per start and 2 TDs during his three games as QB1. While there's not much of a rushing floor here, Winston's constant willingness to throw the ball downfield has provided consistent fantasy upside. Overall, his 10.9-yard average target depth trails only Anthony Richardson (12.7) and marks the eighth time in his career that he's posted a double-digit mark.
Naturally, all this downfield passing has enabled plenty of fantasy goodness for his friends. This passing game suddenly has not one, not two, not three, but four relevant pass catchers who can be started in leagues of most shapes and sizes.
Browns pass catchers in three games with Winston under center:
All parties involved have been upgraded in Dwain McFarland's critically acclaimed Utilization Report and sure look like rock solid fantasy starters the rest of the way.
Pretty much the only loser in the equation has been Nick Chubb, who continues to struggle to replicate his pre-injury efficiency inside an offense that hasn't shied away from letting Jameis go full Jameis: Cleveland's +5% dropback rate over expected since Week 8 trails only the Bills and Bengals; this is as pass-happy of an offense as any group in the league.
Just one problem: The schedule is about to heat up in a major way. And not in a good way:
Ultimately, Winston's gunslinger mentality and high-end volume should be enough for all involved pass catchers to keep on keeping on to a decent extent despite the tougher matchups; just realize things will get rough in a hurry should turnovers force Kevin Stefanski to make the move to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, AKA one of the very few QBs on the planet with worse efficiency numbers than Deshaun Watson over the past two seasons.
We're getting there! The 34th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft has really started to come into his own over the past month of action:
Top 15 in ESPN's Open Score and 22nd in PFF receiving grade, McConkey looks the part of a #good real-life receiver inside of an offense led by arguably the game's hottest QB (on-field, get your mind out of the gutter) in Justin Herbert.
There's also the reality that this Chargers offense has taken a step forward in terms of its dropback rate over expected since returning from the Week 5 bye. Whether it's Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman leaning into the forward pass, or Herbert simply being healthier and in a better position to drop back more often: This is no longer one of the game's most run-heavy offenses.
Chargers dropback rate over expected:
Up next is what the kids might call a smash spot against the Ravens, who have allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing WRs this season and boast the sort of offensive firepower to coax Herbert and Co. into a potential fantasy-friendly shootout. While it's tough to squeeze McConkey into the position's top-12 options, I do like him as an upside WR2 this week ahead of guys like Jayden Reed, DeVonta Smith, and Marvin Harrison Jr., among others.
Well, he's been just that through 11 weeks of the season. Overall, Nix's 17.8 fantasy points per game are good for the 9th-highest mark at the position, ahead of guys like Jordan Love (17.5), Jared Goff (17.3), and Patrick Mahomes (15.8), among others.
A big reason why Nix has been so effective in fantasy land has been the sneaky-solid rushing upside at hand. Just eight QBs have scored at least 50 fantasy points from purely rushing production this year:
However, Nix hasn't even needed to rely on the ground game too much in recent weeks thanks to the reality that this Broncos passing game has suddenly looked quite lethal. Whether it's Nix's development, Sean Payton pulling the right strings, Courtland Sutton putting on his big-boy pants, or all the above: We're looking at one of the most efficient passing games in the NFL over the last month of action.
While Sutton has been the only pass catcher fantasy managers can overly rely on—overall PPR WR5 since Week 8!—Nix's ability to rack up production with this otherwise rag-tag group of pass catchers can't be ignored. Three of his final five matchups in the fantasy season are against bottom-10 defenses in fantasy points per game allowed to the position; get used to seeing Nix's name inside the position's top 12 moving forward—this week specifically he's a legit top-6 option at the position and someone I would start ahead of guys like Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff, among others.
This applies to three key situations ahead of Week 12:
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: Has now posted top-24 numbers in five of eight games alongside Cooper Rush over the years. While the Cowboys backup QB doesn't look anything like, you know, a good professional thrower of the football, he at least proved capable of moving the ball between the 20s against the Texans. And to Rush's credit: He's peppered Lamb with at least 8 targets in each of his eight career starts. The Cowboys have also remained steadfast with getting their $136-million man involved on the ground: Lamb has converted 12 carries into 68 yards on the ground this season, more than any WR not named Jayden Reed (105) or Deebo Samuel (79). While the Commanders have improved on defense as the year has gone on, Lamb's combination of high-end talent and volume keeps him locked and loaded as an upside WR2 at worst.
Giants WR Malik Nabers: You might not think anything can be worse than our fantasy WR catching passes from Daniel Jones, but then again Tommy DeVito does exist. Overall, DeVito ranks 44th and 41st among 46 qualified QBs in EPA per dropback (-0.194) and completion percentage over expected (-2.9%) over the past two seasons. Look, I love the Italian memes and jokes as much as the next way-too-online millennial, but we're talking about a QB who surpassed 200 passing yards in just one of six starts last season while letting more pressures be converted into sacks (37.4%) than any other QB in the league. Oh yeah, his 6.6-yard average target depth last year was also the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Hopefully some cake matchups against the Bucs, Cowboys, and Saints over the next three weeks yield a boost in efficiency, otherwise Nabers' early-season WR1 heights might continue to look like a pipe dream due to the lack of scoring upside at hand.
Colts WR Josh Downs: Kudos to Anthony Richardson for making a number of big-time throws during the Colts' comeback win over the Jets in Week 11, but it was another instance of Indy just not emphasizing the passing game with its second-year dual-threat QB under center. Overall, Downs has averaged 5.5 targets (and 11.7 PPR points) in four games with Richardson compared to 9.8 targets (16.8) in five games with Flacco. The four contests with Richardson have presented some highs (20.9 PPR points, 19.4), but also some truly rough lows (5.2, 1.3). It's tough to be overly optimistic that another boom is incoming against the Lions' league-best defense in EPA allowed per dropback; Downs is more of a mid-tier WR3 with Richardson at QB as opposed to someone who needs to be jammed into starting lineups.
Weeks 12 and 14 will both feature six teams on bye, meaning the likes of Taysom Hill, Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, and Mark Andrews among others will be getting a breather, while fantasy managers attempt to lock down those playoff spots.
Lucky for you: There are still a number of fairly low-owned options at the position who should be able to get you through these trying times.
Sometimes the best way to handle tough close start/sit decisions is to heavily lean into matchups and target defenses that are especially exploitable against the run or the pass. This doesn't always mean the defense in question is bad against one specific method of moving the football—some of the league's worst overall defenses regularly rank well against the run—but more extreme schematic tendencies can sometimes lead to offenses essentially being forced to funnel the majority of their production through one specific avenue.
Specifically, the following defenses have been much better against the pass than the run this season; their Week 12 matchups look pretty, pretty, pretty good for the involved RBs:
On the other side of things, these defenses have been strong against the run, but exceptionally weak against the pass—their opponent's pass catchers might have a better chance at booming this week:
The following players ripped off sterling top-12 PPR performances last week, but that doesn't mean the production is here to stay. Presenting: Fraud check, where we (me) decide if last week's biggest stars are here to stay, or if we simply just witnessed a one-off boom.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson (QB2): Here's a chronological list of Richardson's fantasy finishes in his eight career complete starts: QB4, QB4, QB4, QB23, QB31, QB22, QB24, QB2. Things were certainly ROUGH prior to his brief benching, but the return to form in Week 11 was a good reminder that pretty much any QB with the upside to rack up double-digit rush attempts during any given week has the potential to post a top-5 finish in fantasy land. Unfortunately, this week's matchup against the Lions pits Richardson against the league's No. 1 defense in havoc rate and EPA per dropback—they've also allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season. Add it all together, and Richardson comes in as a midrange QB2 with serious boom … or bust … potential.
Broncos RB Javonte Williams (RB11): In Week 10, Williams had three total touches and played a season-low 29% of the offense's snaps. It seemed like rookie Audric Estime had completely taken over the backfield's early-down role. Then in Week 11, Javonte posted 9-59-1 rushing and 4-28-0 receiving lines on a team-high 53% snap rate. Which data point is more likely to persist moving forward? Good question! Too bad it's unlikely to have a clear answer with Sean Payton perennially being one of the more perplexing coaches to figure out when it comes to future playing time allotment. I'd put my chip on Williams leading the backfield more weeks than not moving forward, but there's not enough confidence here to rank him as anything more than a boom-or-bust RB3 moving forward.
49ers WR Jauan Jennings (WR7): Many expected Jennings to be the team's de facto No. 4 WR this season … and suddenly he's looking a lot like the No.1 after back-to-back blistering 7-93-0 and 10-91-1 performances. While the absence of George Kittle helped condense the target tree in Week 11, it was another example of Brock Purdy seemingly trusting Jennings more than any other WR when it comes to making plays in tight coverage. Overall, Jennings has a whopping 18 contested targets this season (caught 11)--the rest of San Fran's WRs have combined for 23 (caught 9). Dominating targets and simply looking like the best WR on the offense, Jennings has surpassed Deebo Samuel in my Week 12 ranks and is someone who should be in far more starting lineups than not moving forward.
Commanders TE Zach Ertz (TE7): The most important thing to note here: The Twitter account devoted solely to noting that Ertz did in fact not break a tackle after each of his receptions is BACK after a multi-year layoff. And about time: The 34-year-old TE ranks second on the Commanders in targets (61) and receptions (43) behind only Terry McLaurin. There's not a huge yardage ceiling here considering Ertz has surpassed 50 yards on just three occasions this season, but he's a good bet for 8-plus PPR points more weeks than not—something that has helped him score the 7th-most points at the position on the season (just 0.6 fewer than Kyle Pitts!). While top-6 heights the rest of the way are probably wishful thinking, I'm buying the idea of another solid performance in Week 12 against a Cowboys defense that ranks just 25th in EPA allowed per dropback.
Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y."
Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.
I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *meh* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.
With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:
Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!
Without further adieu: Let's get weird.
Players highlighted last week and results: Jonathan Taylor (60 yards), Nick Chubb (50 yards), Jameson Williams (4-124-1).



