
Dwain McFarland breaks down his Week 13 fantasy football rankings, highlighting risers, fallers, and more for the holiday week.

It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 13 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.
Note: as you read through my rankings, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.
Mayfield ranks fourth in fantasy points per game (21.5) thanks to a high-end passing profile and a boost from his newfound scrambling prowess.
The seventh-year QB has added 3.6 points to his bottom line per game as a rusher, which is a significant advantage over other pure pocket passers like Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jared Goff.
If the Buccaneers want to keep their playoff hopes alive they need to handle their business against an inferior Panthers squad this weekend. Carolina has provided the third-largest fantasy boost to the QB position at 4.9 points per game. Oddsmakers like the Tampa offense this weekend—they carry the fourth-highest team total (26.5).
Mayfield UPGRADES to top-five status as a SMASH play against the Panthers.
Williams is due for a big game. Over the last four weeks, he has averaged 11.4 fantasy points despite dominating the Rams backfield.
The Rams have thrown the ball more since the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in Week 8 but have remained a balanced offense with a 0% dropback rate over expected (DBOE).

So, we have an every-down running back on a quality offense willing to run the ball—that usually leads to good things in fantasy football.
The Rams carry the fifth-highest team total as three-point favorites over the Saints. New Orleans has coughed up the seventh-most rushing yards (134) and the fifth-most (1.2) TDs per game on the ground.
Williams remains in must-start territory as a top-10 RB option in Week 13.
Walker is another back due for positive regression. Over the last three fully healthy games, the former second-round NFL draft pick has been Seattle's clear-cut No. 1 option but averaged only 13.6 points per game.

Charbonnet has stolen a few opportunities inside the five, which could be better, but his primary role has been in long-down-distance (LDD) situations.
NERD NOTE: Historically, LDD snaps have been low-calorie opportunities for running backs. Backs are often in pass coverage on these plays because defenses blitz more. Defenses also use more man coverage, diverting targets away from backs. Finally, when given time to throw, quarterbacks want to push the ball downfield toward the sticks.
Historically, backs with Walker's Utilization Score profile have averaged 15.4 points and the Jets provide the third-year back with a get-right matchup. New York has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.4) and the ninth-most yards (130).
While some of our rankers are sliding Walker down the ranks, he remains a must-start option for me as the RB11 on a full slate.
After battling a rib injury for two games, Jones returned to a dominant role in Week 12.
The veteran has averaged 18.3 points in five games where he reached a 60% rush share or higher—a number I expect him to clear this weekend. The Vikings offer the seventh-highest team total (24.8) as four-point favorites over the Cardinals.
Jones UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status.
The Buccaneers didn't push it with Evans in his first game back, limiting him to a 66% route participation in a landslide victory. The veteran WR made the most of his opportunities, leading the team with a 29% TPRR, but didn't blow up in the fantasy box score (11.8).

This weekend, we should see the veteran in a near-full-time role, and the Bucs carry the fourth-highest total on the slate (26.5).
Tampa Bay has a great schedule the rest of the way, and making the playoffs remains possible. The Buccaneers are currently in second place at 5 and 6 behind the Falcons at 6 and 5. Expect a highly motivated performance from Tampa this weekend in a matchup they need to win.
Evans is a mid-range WR1 and could be the WR1 on the slate.
Thomas has yet to capitalize on the Christian Kirk injury due to a chest injury that limited him in Weeks 8 through 10. However, he showed signs of life in Week 11 with a 25% target share and a 7.1 Utilization Score. In his seven healthy games, Thomas has a 22% target share with 15.1 fantasy points per game.
Now he is one more week removed from his injury after a bye week and Gabe Davis is out for the season. Last season we saw Calvin Ridley (25%) and Evan Engram (27%) dominate targets from Trevor Lawrence down the stretch. We could see a similar runout with BTJ and Engram this season.
Of course, the health of Lawrence is the big catch here. Lawrence practiced on Wednesday and got the majority of first-team reps but the team hasn't ruled out season-ending surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder.
The matchup against the Texans has been favorable to wide receivers. Houston has green-lighted the sixth-highest fantasy boost to the WR position (4.7).
Thomas UPGRADES to low-end WR2 territory assuming Lawrence plays. If we see Mac Jones under center, Thomas is a low-end WR3.
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins passing attack is running red-hot. He delivered 23.5 and 28.5 fantasy points against the Raiders and Patriots over the last two games. However, there are concerns on the horizon for Week 13.
First, the forecast calls for temperatures below freezing in conditions that should feel more like 20 degrees. Over the last three seasons with Mike McDaniel at the helm, Tagovailoa has experienced a dramatic dropoff in fantasy points per game in cold weather—even after excluding cold games with wind of 15 miles per hour or higher.
While I don't typically worry too much about weather splits, these were notable enough to give me some pause when making tie-breakers with other pocket passers with a strong receiving corps.
Second, the Packers defense has allowed only 12.9 points per game to opposing signal callers through the air, making them one of the tougher matchups. Jaire Alexander (PCL) won't play again, which is a plus for the Dolphins.
Finally, oddsmakers have the Dolphins team total at 21.9, which is below average. Miami is a four-point dog heading into Lambeau.
Tagovailoa isn't a must-bench—he is still in a large tier of high-end QB2 options—but I have other pocket passers like Darnold, Stafford, and Stroud ahead of him.
Over the last three games, Trey Benson has eaten into Conner's rushing pie with attempt shares of 24%, 31%, and 31%. Over that span, Conner has handled only 48% of the team's totes. The veteran back has offset that loss with additional work on passing downs with Emari Demercado battling a should injury.
It is hard to say if either trend will last but my confidence in Conner's workload isn't as strong as it was a month ago. If Benson keeps those carries and Demercado regains passing-down work when healthy that would create a pesky three-way split.
This weekend would be a terrible time for Conner to give up any additional touches. The Vikings have held opposing RB units to 3.8 points below their average, making them the third-toughest matchup. Minnesota allows the fewest rushing yards per game (68) and opposing rushing attacks have collected only 9.3 points per game on the ground.
Conner DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.
Williams has performed well since returning from his suspension, averaging 14.2 points per game. However, he still grades out in the boom-bust range with a 6.3 Utilization Score, which makes him a tougher start in difficult matchups.
The Bears allow only 23.7 points per game to pass catchers—the fifth-lowest mark—and the Lions have the offensive diversity to attack on the ground. Additionally, Sam LaPorta has an 18% target share over his last four games, which is new target competition (compared to early this season).
Over the last two weeks, Williams has upgraded to WR2 status in great matchups but he goes in the opposite direction this week.
Williams DOWNGRADES to the low-end WR3 tier.
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Season: 21 of 44
Let's go, you sickos.
Stafford is only in 27% of lineups and available in 37% of leagues.
Since the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Stafford has averaged 282 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game passing. Over that stretch, he has averaged 19.9 points per game.
The Rams carry the fifth-best team total (25.8) against a Saints defense allowing the third-most passing yards per game (281).
Stafford UPGRADES to high-end QB2 territory as my QB13.
Edwards is available in 57% of leagues and is only in 7% of lineups.
With J.K. Dobbins out, Edwards should see a significant bump in opportunities this weekend. Kimani Vidal could steal some of the work—especially on passing downs—but Edwards is the favorite to lead the team in carries. He could handle as much as 65% of the workload on the ground.
The Falcons allow 127 yards per game on the ground and the Chargers are slight favorites at minus-two points. With an above-average game total (24.8), this is a decent spot for Edwards.
Edwards UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status.
Legette is available in 73% of leagues and in only 24% of lineups.
Legette has taken over a full-time role since the departure of Diontae Johnson. Over the last three games, he has a 96% route participation rate with a 19% target share. Over that spa,n he has two WR3 finishes with 10.2 points per game.

Trusting the Panthers passing attack isn't for the faint of heart. However, the Bucs have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (251) and the fifth-most touchdowns (1.7). Tampa has allowed opposing WR units to score 3.5 points over their season average—the ninth-best matchup.
Legette UPGRADES to WR4 territory and could scratch out a 13- to 15-point performance.
Goedert is only in 50% of starting lineups.
DeVonta Smith missed last week's game due to a hamstring injury and he missed the first Eagles' practice this week. At this point, he doesn't seem likely to suit up, which could channel more opportunities to Goedert in a juicy matchup against the Ravens.
Baltimore has sanctioned the most fantasy points per game to opposing pass catchers (37.1), allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL (297).
Goedert UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status.
If you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.
Season: 11 of 15
See downgrades.



