It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 13 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Note: as you read through my rankings, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

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Risers in The Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings

Baker Mayfield | QB | Buccaneers

Mayfield ranks fourth in fantasy points per game (21.5) thanks to a high-end passing profile and a boost from his newfound scrambling prowess.

• Passing yards per game: 255 (5th)
• Passing TDs per game: 2.5 (3rd)
• Rushing yards per game: 20 (12th)
• Rushing TDs per game: 0.27 (8th)

The seventh-year QB has added 3.6 points to his bottom line per game as a rusher, which is a significant advantage over other pure pocket passers like Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jared Goff.

If the Buccaneers want to keep their playoff hopes alive they need to handle their business against an inferior Panthers squad this weekend. Carolina has provided the third-largest fantasy boost to the QB position at 4.9 points per game. Oddsmakers like the Tampa offense this weekend—they carry the fourth-highest team total (26.5).

Mayfield UPGRADES to top-five status as a SMASH play against the Panthers.

QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Kyler Murray | Vikings: Murray posted a dud last weekend with only 11.3 fantasy points, but he gets a funnel matchup this weekend. The Vikings are the No. 1 defense against the run, allowing only 68 yards per game, but have sanctioned the sixth-most passing yards at 244. Murray ranks 10th in fantasy points per game (18) and is my QB9 this weekend.
   
• Anthony Richardson | Colts: Richardson's woes as a passer are well documented, but he was much closer to another big passing game last weekend than most realize. But even more importantly, Indianapolis has moved to an all-in approach with Richardson's utilization on the ground. Since returning to the starting lineup, the second-year QB has accounted for 35% of the designed rushing attempts. Once you add his scrambles, the second-year QB has averaged 10 attempts per game. The Patriots have conceded the seventh-best fantasy boost per game to the QB position (2.6).
   
• C.J. Stroud | Texans: Stroud has been one of fantasy's biggest buzz at the quarterback position this year, averaging only 15 points per game. However, with Nico Collins back in the lineup and a matchup against the Jaguars, Stroud could make noise this weekend. Jacksonville has empowered the largest fantasy boost to the QB position at 6.5 points per game. Stroud returns to high-end QB2 territory and offers mid-range QB1 upside. 

Kyren Williams | RB | Rams

Williams is due for a big game. Over the last four weeks, he has averaged 11.4 fantasy points despite dominating the Rams backfield.

• Snaps: 92%
• Attempts: 83%
• Routes: 61%

The Rams have thrown the ball more since the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in Week 8 but have remained a balanced offense with a 0% dropback rate over expected (DBOE).

So, we have an every-down running back on a quality offense willing to run the ball—that usually leads to good things in fantasy football.

The Rams carry the fifth-highest team total as three-point favorites over the Saints. New Orleans has coughed up the seventh-most rushing yards (134) and the fifth-most (1.2) TDs per game on the ground.

Williams remains in must-start territory as a top-10 RB option in Week 13.

Kenneth Walker | RB | Seahawks

Walker is another back due for positive regression. Over the last three fully healthy games, the former second-round NFL draft pick has been Seattle's clear-cut No. 1 option but averaged only 13.6 points per game.

Charbonnet has stolen a few opportunities inside the five, which could be better, but his primary role has been in long-down-distance (LDD) situations.

NERD NOTE: Historically, LDD snaps have been low-calorie opportunities for running backs. Backs are often in pass coverage on these plays because defenses blitz more. Defenses also use more man coverage, diverting targets away from backs. Finally, when given time to throw, quarterbacks want to push the ball downfield toward the sticks.

Historically, backs with Walker's Utilization Score profile have averaged 15.4 points and the Jets provide the third-year back with a get-right matchup. New York has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.4) and the ninth-most yards (130).

While some of our rankers are sliding Walker down the ranks, he remains a must-start option for me as the RB11 on a full slate.

Aaron Jones | RB | Vikings

After battling a rib injury for two games, Jones returned to a dominant role in Week 12.

• Utilization Score: 8.9
• Snaps: 78%
• Attempts: 81%
• Routes: 58%
• Targets: 12%
• Fantasy points: 22

The veteran has averaged 18.3 points in five games where he reached a 60% rush share or higher—a number I expect him to clear this weekend. The Vikings offer the seventh-highest team total (24.8) as four-point favorites over the Cardinals.

Jones UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status.

RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News 

• Bucky Irving | Buccaneers: Irving got a significant upgrade in the Utilization Report this week and gets a smash matchup against the Panthers. Carolina has endorsed the largest fantasy boost to the running back position at 8.7 points per game. Irving UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.
   
• Rico Dowdle | Cowboys: Dowdle has a 7.3 Utilization Score since Week 9, averaging 12.8 attempts and 4.3 targets per game. Over that span, he averaged 12.1 fantasy points. The Cowboys' offense is pretty gross, but they are four-point favorites over the Giants, who allow the second-highest fantasy boost to the RB position at 5.5 points per game. Dowdle UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status.
   
• Ameer Abdullah | Raiders: Abdullah notched an 89% snap share with an 8.5 Utilization Score with Alexander Mattison and Zamir White out of last weekend's lineup. The Raiders get the toughest RB matchup in fantasy football versus the Chiefs in Week 13. Kansas City has limited opposing RB rooms to 6.5 points under their season average. Abdullah will enter the low-end RB2 tier if Mattison and White are out. If only one is out, Abdullah becomes a borderline RB4.
   
• Jeremy McNichols | Commanders: Brian Robinson (ankle) and Austin Ekeler (concussion) are in jeopardy of missing the Week 13 matchup against the Titans. McNichols would upgrade to borderline RB2 status if both are out, with Chris Rodriguez likely stealing some early-down work.

Mike Evans | WR | Buccaneers

The Buccaneers didn't push it with Evans in his first game back, limiting him to a 66% route participation in a landslide victory. The veteran WR made the most of his opportunities, leading the team with a 29% TPRR, but didn't blow up in the fantasy box score (11.8).

This weekend, we should see the veteran in a near-full-time role, and the Bucs carry the fourth-highest total on the slate (26.5). 

Tampa Bay has a great schedule the rest of the way, and making the playoffs remains possible. The Buccaneers are currently in second place at 5 and 6 behind the Falcons at 6 and 5. Expect a highly motivated performance from Tampa this weekend in a matchup they need to win.

Evans is a mid-range WR1 and could be the WR1 on the slate.

Brian Thomas | WR | Jaguars

Thomas has yet to capitalize on the Christian Kirk injury due to a chest injury that limited him in Weeks 8 through 10. However, he showed signs of life in Week 11 with a 25% target share and a 7.1 Utilization Score. In his seven healthy games, Thomas has a 22% target share with 15.1 fantasy points per game.

Now he is one more week removed from his injury after a bye week and Gabe Davis is out for the season. Last season we saw Calvin Ridley (25%) and Evan Engram (27%) dominate targets from Trevor Lawrence down the stretch. We could see a similar runout with BTJ and Engram this season.

Of course, the health of Lawrence is the big catch here. Lawrence practiced on Wednesday and got the majority of first-team reps but the team hasn't ruled out season-ending surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder.

The matchup against the Texans has been favorable to wide receivers. Houston has green-lighted the sixth-highest fantasy boost to the WR position (4.7).

Thomas UPGRADES to low-end WR2 territory assuming Lawrence plays. If we see Mac Jones under center, Thomas is a low-end WR3.

WR Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Nico Collins | Texans: Collins' route participation jumped from 55% to 80% in his second game back, and we could see him closer to his pre-injury range of 90% this weekend. The fourth-year WR averaged 22.7 points per game over the first month in a full-time role and now has less target competition with Stefon Diggs out. The Jaguars defense has signed off on the fifth-largest fantasy boost to the WR position at 5.1 points per game. Collins UPGRADES to WR1 overall.
   
• Ladd McConkey | Chargers: McConkey has averaged 12.8 points over the last four outings with a 6.5 Utilization Score. Over that span, he has led the Chargers with a 22% target share. The Falcons have green-lighted a 4.6-point fantasy boost to opposing WR rooms—the seventh most. McConkey UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory.
   
• Tank Dell | Texans: Dell has a 19% target share since the return of Nico Collins, which isn't great. However, the second-year WR gets to play a Jaguars secondary that can transform an average target share into a big fantasy day. Dell UPGRADES to the mid-range WR3 tier and offers WR2 boom upside.
   
• Dontayvion Wicks | Packers: Romeo Doubs is out for Thursday night due to a concussion. Wicks leads the Packers in targets per route run (26%) and could push toward 80% route participation. While no one wants to admit it, Wicks would be just as likely to be the Packers WR to go off as Jayden Reed or Christian Watson. Wicks UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory and could easily register a WR2 or WR1 performance.
   
• Adonai Mitchell | Colts: Mitchell is a similar play to Wicks. Josh Downs suffered a shoulder injury and isn't likely to play in Week 13. That opens the door for playing time, and Mitchell has flashed high-end target-earning ability (27% TPRR). Anthony Richardson's accuracy issues will be challenging, but the Patriots are the eighth-best matchup for the WR position, providing a 3.9-point-per-game fantasy boost. Mitchell UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 status.

TE Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Cade Otton | Buccaneers: Otton notched only four fantasy points with Mike Evans back in the lineup in Week 12. However, there were plenty of targets to go around outside of the 20% Evans earned. Expect Otton to remain one of the top two targets in this high-end passing attack the rest of the way. Fantasy managers are overreacting—he is only in 45% of starting lineups on Yahoo despite a matchup against the worst TE defense. The Panthers provide a 5.5-point-per-game fantasy boost. Otton remains a mid-range TE1 against the Panthers in Week 13.
   
• Will Dissly | Chargers: With Hayden Hurst on IR, the starting job 100% belongs to Dissly. The veteran TE has averaged 11.3 points per game when reaching a 70% route participation or higher in 2024. Dissly is a borderline TE1.

Fallers In The Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings

Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Dolphins

Tagovailoa and the Dolphins passing attack is running red-hot. He delivered 23.5 and 28.5 fantasy points against the Raiders and Patriots over the last two games. However, there are concerns on the horizon for Week 13.

First, the forecast calls for temperatures below freezing in conditions that should feel more like 20 degrees. Over the last three seasons with Mike McDaniel at the helm, Tagovailoa has experienced a dramatic dropoff in fantasy points per game in cold weather—even after excluding cold games with wind of 15 miles per hour or higher.

• 50 degrees or below: 12.1 fantasy points per game
• 70 degrees or higher: 19.6 fantasy points per game

While I don't typically worry too much about weather splits, these were notable enough to give me some pause when making tie-breakers with other pocket passers with a strong receiving corps.

Second, the Packers defense has allowed only 12.9 points per game to opposing signal callers through the air, making them one of the tougher matchups. Jaire Alexander (PCL) won't play again, which is a plus for the Dolphins.

Finally, oddsmakers have the Dolphins team total at 21.9, which is below average. Miami is a four-point dog heading into Lambeau.

Tagovailoa isn't a must-bench—he is still in a large tier of high-end QB2 options—but I have other pocket passers like Darnold, Stafford, and Stroud ahead of him.

James Conner | RB | Cardinals

Over the last three games, Trey Benson has eaten into Conner's rushing pie with attempt shares of 24%, 31%, and 31%. Over that span, Conner has handled only 48% of the team's totes. The veteran back has offset that loss with additional work on passing downs with Emari Demercado battling a should injury.

It is hard to say if either trend will last but my confidence in Conner's workload isn't as strong as it was a month ago. If Benson keeps those carries and Demercado regains passing-down work when healthy that would create a pesky three-way split.

This weekend would be a terrible time for Conner to give up any additional touches. The Vikings have held opposing RB units to 3.8 points below their average, making them the third-toughest matchup. Minnesota allows the fewest rushing yards per game (68) and opposing rushing attacks have collected only 9.3 points per game on the ground.

Conner DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.

Jameson Williams | WR | Lions

Williams has performed well since returning from his suspension, averaging 14.2 points per game. However, he still grades out in the boom-bust range with a 6.3 Utilization Score, which makes him a tougher start in difficult matchups.

The Bears allow only 23.7 points per game to pass catchers—the fifth-lowest mark—and the Lions have the offensive diversity to attack on the ground. Additionally, Sam LaPorta has an 18% target share over his last four games, which is new target competition (compared to early this season).

Over the last two weeks, Williams has upgraded to WR2 status in great matchups but he goes in the opposite direction this week.

Williams DOWNGRADES to the low-end WR3 tier.

Rapid Fire Downgrades:

• D'Andre Swift | Bears: Swift's role has diminished in two games under interim OC, Thomas Brown. His Utilization Score has fallen from 8.0 to 6.6 and his snap share is down from 63% to 54%. Of course, the fantasy points have followed, plummeting from 15.2 per game to 12.9. The Lions allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (87) and have been the fourth-hardest matchup for running backs. Detroit has held opposing RB rooms to 3.3 points below their season average. Swift DOWNGRADES to the high-end RB3 tier.
   
• Cedric Tillman | Browns: Tillman left last week's game in the fourth quarter with a concussion and is questionable for Monday night. While Tillman remains a promising young WR, the Browns are spreading things across three other pass catchers and they have a tough matchup against the Broncos. Denver has been the seventh-hardest matchup for the WR position, holding opponents 2.2 points below their season average. Tillman DOWNGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory for Week 13.
   
• Rashod Bateman | Ravens: Bateman has a 5.5 Utilization Score with 10.1 points per game over the last four games. During that stretch, he has two top-24 finishes. Zay Flowers is the much more targeted WR (27% vs. 18%) but Bateman has come through with some big plays, making him a borderline WR3 in recent weeks. However, without any teams on bye and a matchup against an Eagles defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (181), Bateman should be on benches in most formats—he DOWNGRADES to WR5 status.

Sicko Starts For Week 13

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

• Week 1: Sam Darnold (hit), J.K. Dobbins (hit), Jalen McMillan (hit), Zach Ertz (miss)
   
• Week 2: Daniel Jones (hit), Zack Moss (miss), Adonai Mitchell (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)
   
• Week 3: Aaron Rodgers (hit), D'Andre Swift (miss), Jordan Whittington (miss), Tyler Conklin (hit)
   
• Week 4: Caleb Williams (miss), Jerome Ford (hit), Darnell Mooney (miss - But the PROCESS WAS RIGHT, he screamed … as his wife and children walked out of his life forever)
   
• Week 5: Deshaun Watson (miss), Trey Sermon (hit), Tutu Atwell (hit)
   
• Week 6: Daniel Jones (miss), Tyjae Spears (null-injured), Jalen Tolbert (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)
   
• Week 7: Sam Darnold (miss), Tank Bigsby (hit), Jordan Addison (miss), Dalton Schultz (miss)
   
• Week 8: Caleb Williams (miss), Raheem Mostert (hit), Dontayvion Wicks (miss), Cade Otton (hit)
   
• Week 9: Malik Willis (null-did not play), Alexander Mattison (miss - I am an idiot), Xavier Worthy (miss), Jonnu Smith (hit)
   
• Week 10: Russell Wilson (hit), Jaylen Warren (miss), Xavier Legette (miss), T.J. Hockenson (hit)
   
• Week 11: Bo Nix (hit), Nick Chubb (miss), Jakobi Meyers (miss), Will Dissly (hit)
   
• Week 12: Drake Maye (miss), Rico Dowdle (hit), Quentin Johnston (miss), Hunter Henry (hit)

Season: 21 of 44

Let's go, you sickos.

Matthew Stafford | QB | Rams

Stafford is only in 27% of lineups and available in 37% of leagues.

Since the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Stafford has averaged 282 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game passing. Over that stretch, he has averaged 19.9 points per game.

The Rams carry the fifth-best team total (25.8) against a Saints defense allowing the third-most passing yards per game (281).

Stafford UPGRADES to high-end QB2 territory as my QB13.  

Gus Edwards | RB | Chargers

Edwards is available in 57% of leagues and is only in 7% of lineups.

With J.K. Dobbins out, Edwards should see a significant bump in opportunities this weekend. Kimani Vidal could steal some of the work—especially on passing downs—but Edwards is the favorite to lead the team in carries. He could handle as much as 65% of the workload on the ground.

The Falcons allow 127 yards per game on the ground and the Chargers are slight favorites at minus-two points. With an above-average game total (24.8), this is a decent spot for Edwards.

Edwards UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status.

Xavier Legette | WR | Panthers

Legette is available in 73% of leagues and in only 24% of lineups.

Legette has taken over a full-time role since the departure of Diontae Johnson. Over the last three games, he has a 96% route participation rate with a 19% target share. Over that spa,n he has two WR3 finishes with 10.2 points per game.

Trusting the Panthers passing attack isn't for the faint of heart. However, the Bucs have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (251) and the fifth-most touchdowns (1.7). Tampa has allowed opposing WR units to score 3.5 points over their season average—the ninth-best matchup.

Legette UPGRADES to WR4 territory and could scratch out a 13- to 15-point performance.

Dallas Goedert | TE | Eagles

Goedert is only in 50% of starting lineups.

DeVonta Smith missed last week's game due to a hamstring injury and he missed the first Eagles' practice this week. At this point, he doesn't seem likely to suit up, which could channel more opportunities to Goedert in a juicy matchup against the Ravens.

Baltimore has sanctioned the most fantasy points per game to opposing pass catchers (37.1), allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL (297).

Goedert UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status.

Brass Balls Bench For Week 13

If you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

• Week 1: Joe Burrow (hit), Josh Jacobs (miss), Brandon Aiyuk (hit)
   
• Week 2: Travis Etienne (miss, but Bigsby was injured), George Pickens (hit)
   
• Week 3: J.K. Dobbins (hit), Jaylen Waddle (hit)
   
• Week 4: Anthony Richardson (hit but due to injury)
   
• Week 5: Sam Darnold (hit)
   
• Week 6: Brian Robinson (null-injured)
   
• Week 7: Patrick Mahomes (hit)
   
• Week 8: Nick Chubb (hit)
   
• Week 9: C.J. Stroud (hit)
   
• Week 10: Marvin Harrison (miss)
   
• Week 11: Tony Pollard (hit)
   
• Week 12: Chuba Hubbard (miss)

Season: 11 of 15

D'Andre Swift | RB | Bears

See downgrades.