The flight number was AA 3720.

I travel for my day job multiple times a year. I was actually in California just last week, working with an excellent crew of inspectors. Anyway, I put together an itinerary once every couple of months, and I instantly forget the details. I have to put them on the family Google calendar instantly so my wife knows when I’ll be gone. But when we planned a trip to Jamaica for our anniversary, I had everything memorized. The flight numbers, departure times, bus schedule to get us to the resort—it was all in my head. The importance of the situation freed up some space on my mental hard drive. With the playoffs on the line, you’re likely feeling the same way.

We’ve been waiting three months to get here. Congrats if you’ve already got a spot locked up. Some of us have to fight to get into the dance. And it all comes down to this. If you’re like me, despite all the food and relaxing vibes, projections and matchups have been running through your head all week. To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with that. As I said, in a situation like this, considering every detail can make all the difference.

Week 13 WR/CB Matchups to Target for Fantasy Football

Nico Collins at the Colts

I’m not here to start a QB controversy or speculate as to which Texans’ passer is better for the team long term—c'mon, it’s C.J. Stroud. However, if I were Nico Collins, I wouldn’t mind another week of having Davis Mills under center.

• Targets per Game: 8.1 (w/ Stroud), 9.3 (w/ Mills)
• Receiving Yards per Game: 59.1, 94.3
• FPPG: 13.0, 18.4

Collins has been the beneficiary of the “just-throw-it-to-your-good-player” strategy with Stroud still working through the concussion protocol. Houston’s WR1 has finished as a top-10 receiver with the added attention. But it’s not just the bump in volume. His on-field deployment has shifted.

While Collins has run from the slot at a similar rate (14.0% with Stroud vs. 17.4% with Mills), how often he actually sees targets from the interior has shot up to 28.6%  over the last four games. The result has been more high-percentage throws, which is why his reception rate has also picked up (57.9% to 67.9%). And I’d reference Collins’ production from the last time he went up against the Titans’ defense, but the other WRs who went up against the same secondary can make the same case for me.

• Week 12: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 10-167-2 (Stat Line), 36.7 (PPR Points)
• Week 9: Quentin Johnston, 6-53-1, 15.3
• Week 8: Michael Pittman, 9-95-1, 23.5

Sure, Mills has benefited from the easier part of Houston’s schedule. However, he’s performed to (and sometimes outkicked) expectations in those situations. And with Collins as the clear lead in the passing game, he should be one of the favorite options to finish as a top-12 WR in Week 12.

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Jaylen Waddle vs. the Saints

We’re two months removed from Tyreek Hill’s injury that put Jaylen Waddle into the WR1 position for the Dolphins. Admittedly, with Waddle’s injury history and his QB, I was skeptical. However, the numbers don’t lie.

Of course, our main focus should be the first five columns. Since Waddle’s “promotion,” he ranks 18th among all WRs in target share. There hasn’t been a game where he hasn’t led the Dolphins’ pass catchers in air yards. However, for Week 13, how often Tua Tagovailoa looks for him on play-action caught my eye. Because when I started digging into the Saints’ defense, the data suggests that they’ve been susceptible to progressive play calling in the past.

• Passing Yards per Game Allowed (on Play-Action Attempts): 11th-most
• Defensive EPA per Play: 14th-worst
• Explosive Play Rate Allowed: 12th-worst

Plus, previous high-end route runners have been able to put up either floor or ceiling performances against the Saints. Tetairoa McMillan, with just a 63% catchable target rate, turned in 11.0 PPR points three weeks ago. But with a better passer like Matthew Stafford, both Puka Nacua (8-95-1) and Davante Adams (7-60-2) found the end zone. And with the Saints in the bottom-12 in pressure rate, Waddle and Tagovailoa should be able to connect often enough for Waddle to be a top producer in Week 13.

Sneaky Matchups

Troy Franklin at the Commanders

Honestly, now that I think about it, Troy Franklin isn’t all that sneaky of an option.

From a volume standpoint, Franklin has been Bo Nix’s primary target over the month of games before their bye. But as you can see from the numbers in blue, it’s not just how often Nix is looking for his old college teammate. The where and in what context boost his case for the WR1 spot over Courtland Sutton.

Of the 34 QBs with more than 180 dropbacks, Nix ranks ninth in the rate of dropbacks featuring play-action passes. Simply put, they’re (supposed to be) like a cheat code for passers. And, as Franklin’s Utilization Report indicates, he’s been the top option when Nix lets the ball go. Along with the efficient targets, Franklin has earned the most end-zone targets. Essentially, he’s getting the most fantasy-friendly attempts, making him a solid, under-the-radar option against the Commanders, who are allowing the third-most fantasy PPG to opposing WRs.

Keenan Allen vs. the Raiders

I’m not expecting the Chargers to have fixed their offensive line over the bye week. However, it’d be fair to anticipate both HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman to have a plan for Justin Herbert to deal with pressure. The quick adjustment heading into their in-season break was shorter passes.

• Week 9: 38.5% (Pressure Rate), 10.7 (Air Yards per Attempt)
• Week 10: 42.5%, 4.7
• Week 11: 39.1%, 3.8

The shift was where we saw Keenan Allen re-insert himself into the passing game.

Per our Utilization game logs, the veteran receiver saw the majority of targets in obvious passing situations and led the team in looks in Week 11. Part of the reason is that teams are getting pressure with four and playing zone coverage. The Jaguars only blitzed Herbert on 8.7% of his dropbacks, keeping Herbert under 100 passing yards for the first time this season. The Raiders can try the same approach, but their defense doesn’t have comparable personnel on the backend.

The Raiders use zone concepts on 84% of their plays. Allen is their best receiver against those coverage schemes with a team-high 2.20 yards per route run. Plus, we’ve already seen the results of a passing game using quick-hitting routes like hitches or slants to move the chains. Seven of George Pickens’ 9 catches against the Raiders (that resulted in 144 yards) were on those patterns, putting Allen in line for an underrated workload on Sunday.

Week 13 WR/CB Matchups to Avoid

Alec Pierce vs. the Texans

Note: As always, “avoid” doesn’t mean “sit.” It implies that the matchups or trends around a player’s usage indicate we should lower our expectations regarding their projected output.

Adjusting expectations for Alec Pierce isn’t about Pierce himself. My concern is more for Daniel Jones and how both he and HC Shane Steichen are working through his pocket management issues. The storyline for the last month has been how Jones has turned back into a pumpkin. The goodwill he bought himself by being rehabilitated is gone. And coming out of the Colts’ bye, the turnovers were gone. But the adjustment came at a price.

• Week 8: 30.3% (Pressure Rate), 3 (Sacks, Turnovers), 8.9 (Passing aDOT)
• Week 9: 29.1%, 10, 8.6
• Week 10: 35.9%, 9, 8.0
• Week 12: 33.3%, 0, 4.5

Jones’ average time to throw against Kansas City was 2.39 seconds, which was his second-quickest mark all season. It didn’t matter that he’d seen pressure at similar rates throughout the year. In fact, Jones has been under duress on a third or more of his dropbacks in five other games. But he was fearless then. His passing aDOT was 8.8 air yards. Against the Chiefs, he nearly cut it in half. Accordingly, Pierce saw less work in the same offense that we lauded for the first few months of the year.

Unsurprisingly, the Texans rank sixth in pressure rate, and they have the eighth-highest sack rate in obvious passing situations. In other words, Jones will be in a worse situation than he was last week. And we saw his response. Houston’s perimeter coverage, allowing the fewest yards per game, also puts a damper on Pierce’s prospects, which should force fantasy managers to find other options for Week 13.

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