
Dwain McFarland breaks down his Week 14 fantasy football rankings to highlight the biggest risers and fallers.

It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 14 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.
Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.
It is a weird week at the quarterback position. Typically, the biggest rankings risers come from matchups for our high-end QB2 tier. However, the low-end QB2 tier gobbled up the top-tier matchups this weekend.
Here are the quarterbacks facing the outlier quality matchups based on fantasy boost.
Yeah, Burrow is in a great spot, but y'all don't need me to tell you that—if you have Burrow, you are starting him. Levis, O'Connell, and Rush are all Sicko Start options (read on), but none are inside the top-12 in our consensus ranks, even with six teams on bye.
This is an excellent spot for a Nerd Note.
Nerd Note: While defensive matchups and team totals are part of the weekly rankings process, previous fantasy production is still twice as predictive as either for quarterbacks. It is also important to note that we only care about the outlier matchups, with 75 to 85% of matchups falling into the neutral category.
With all of this in mind, the case for Tagovailoa is pretty simple. First, he has been a high-end QB2 performer with Mike McDaniel, averaging 17.3 fantasy points in 37 games where he played at least 70% of snaps.
Second, Tagovailoa has been hot over the last three games, averaging 323 yards and three touchdowns per game, which has led to 25.1 fantasy points per contest. With defenses focusing on taking away Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins have found their counterpunch with the ascension of Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane as playmakers in the passing attack.
Third, while the Jets' defense was one of the toughest matchups for quarterbacks early in the season, they have allowed 248 yards per game over the last three contests. In two of those games, New York faced lackluster passing attacks in the Colts and Cardinals.
Finally, oddsmakers aren't concerned about the Jets' defense either. The Dolphins are seven-point favorites, with the sixth-best team total on the slate at 26.5 points.
Tagovailoa UPGRADES to mid-range QB1 territory with six teams on bye.
Since the Zack Moss injury, only Alvin Kamara has a higher Utilization Score than Brown (9.6).

Note: If you have not seen the weekly range slider in the Season Stats view, check it out—we just launched the new feature today. You can now isolate results to whatever range you want to analyze.
Over that span, Brown ranks second to Saquon Barkley in fantasy points per game with 22.4. Yeah, that is a lot of points per game, and now he gets an early Christmas gift with a matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (136) and the most touchdowns (1.5) on the Week 14 slate.
The Bengals are six-point favorites and claim the second-highest team total (28.3), which means Brown should have ample opportunities to tote the rock. A 150-all-purpose yardage game with two touchdowns is within reach for Brown if he runs pure.
Brown is a SMASH play as the RB2 overall behind only Barkley.
Guerendo steps into the RB1 role for San Francisco against the Bears. The last time we saw the rookie in a near full-time role was Week 8 when he took over for Jordan Mason after an early-game injury. Guerendo delivered 19.2 points that game with a 66% snap share and 8.6 Utilization Score.

It's only one game, but his 62% route participation is notable—he handled all of the two-minute offense and notched a 17% target share with Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk missing. Patrick Taylor was available that game but only played 6% of snaps. The 49ers added Israel Abanikanda to the roster this week, but Taylor will likely be Guerendo's primary competition for backfield touches along with Deebo Samuel in Week 14.
The Bears have been a solid defense this year, but teams have found success on the ground. Chicago has allowed the sixth-most yards per game (125), giving up 18 fantasy points per contest. The 49ers are four-point favorites over Chicago and have the eighth-best team total (24.3).
Guerendo UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 territory and offers RB1 upside if the 49ers decide to ride the rookie.
Evan has gobbled up a 28% target share and 49% air yards share since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 13. Over that span, he has an 8.7 Utilization Score, averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game.

This season, Evans has averaged 17.7 points in healthy games with a 70% or higher route participation. Last year, he averaged 17.3 in healthy games. So, in two seasons with Mayfield at the helm, we have a 17-point per-game wide receiver.
The Bucs are seven-point favorites with the sixth-highest team total (26.5) in a neutral passing game matchup against the Raiders.
Evans UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 territory as my WR4 overall.
Since Davante Adams' departure, Meyers has averaged 15.1 points per game, and his underlying utilization data has been dominant.
Over that seven-game span, Meyers has been incredibly consistent.
It is amazing what a 29% target share can do—even in a below-average passing attack. Of course, Meyers's one top-12 finish came last week with Aidan O'Connell throwing for over 340 yards. Tampa Bay's defense has allowed the second-most passing yards per game on the Week 14 slate (255), which gives the Raiders' passing attack a chance to create fireworks again. The Bucs have sanctioned the tenth-highest boost to the WR position at 4.3 points per game.
Meyers UPGRADES to borderline WR1 territory and should be in most starting lineups.
Herbert was a bust in Week 13 with only six points against a meh Falcons defense. Dud games can happen to anyone, but the Chargers need a playmaker on offense beyond Ladd McConkey. Quentin Johnston has regressed toward rookie-season form over the last two games, leaving this attack without a field-stretching component.
McConkey is battling a shoulder injury that could keep him out or limit his effectiveness, which puts even more stress on the offense. The betting market is low on the Bolts, with the third-worst team total (19.5). Knowing that the Chargers could also choose to shell up and try to pound the rock, there are just too many question marks around Herbert this weekend to keep him in the top 12 ranks.
Herbert DOWNGRADES to mid-range QB2 territory.
Hubbard remained the clear-cut RB1 for the Panthers last weekend, but he registered his lowest rush share (57%) since Week 2 with the role of Jonathon Brooks expanding. Hubbard stumbled to only 4.3 fantasy points and posted his lowest Utilization Score since Week 1 at 5.4.

To be fair, it was a brutal matchup for Hubbard against the Chiefs—the toughest fantasy defense versus the RB position. However, it will be tough sledding again against the fourth-hardest RB defense. The Eagles have held opposing backfields 3.1 points below their season average.
Oddsmakers are out on the Panthers this weekend. The team has the lowest team total (16.5) and is a 13-point underdog. So, we have a player whose role could diminish in a tough matchup where the team could have to abandon the run early. No thanks.
Hubbard DOWNGRADES to the borderline RB2 tier.
I have resisted moving Samuel down the rankings, thinking we would see him return to form. However, over the last four weeks, he ranks 59th in Utilization Score (4.8) and 72nd in fantasy points per game (7.0).
His 27% and 29% target shares in Weeks 11 and 13 are encouraging, and we could see some extra rushing touches with Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out. However, we are at the point where Samuel must earn his way back into the WR2 conversation, and the Bears' defense could make that challenging. Chicago has been the second-hardest matchup for WR units, holding opponents 2.8 points below their per-game average.
Samuel DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory.
Hopefully, you have already sent Pitts to your bench. He ranks 17th in Utilization Score (6.1) on the season—a range where historical comps rarely found their way into the TE1 conversation.
So, 80% of his comps have finished outside the top 12 at the position. YIKES!
The Vikings have allowed the third-most passing yards (245) and fifth-most passing TDs (1.4) per game on the slate. Still, it is tough to consider Pitts more than a cross-your-fingers-and-hope option, given he is the No. 4 option on his team with a 14% target share.
Pitts DOWNGRADES to mid-range TE2 territory.
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Season: 22 of 48
Let's go, you sickos.
Levis is only in 7% of lineups and is available in 84% of leagues.
Don't look now, but Levis has averaged 240 yards with 1.8 touchdowns per game since returning from injury in Week 10. Over that span, he has also picked up work in the run game with a 19% designed rush share—ranking third in the NFL.

Some of the attempts were fumbled snaps, and no one will mistake Levis for the other dual-threat quarterbacks on this list. However, we will take every little bit we can get. Levis has cleared 16.5 points in three of his last four outings and hasn't gone below 15.
The Jaguars have endorsed the most significant fantasy boost to the quarterback position at seven points per game. Opposing signal callers have shredded them for 18 points per game through the air alone—the most favorable matchup on the slate.
Levis UPGRADES to mid-range QB2 status and offers low-end QB1 upside if bye weeks have you in a bind.
Alternate: Aidan O'Connell
Etienne is in 37% of lineups and is available in 16% of leagues.
Etienne has been one of the biggest busts of the fantasy season. However, we saw him back in the lead role in Week 13, leading the Jaguars in snaps (52%) and rushing attempts (59%) in their first game out of the bye.

The Titans are a neutral matchup for running backs.
Etienne UPGRADES to borderline RB2 territory and has a shot to carve out 12-plus fantasy points.
Westbrook-Ikhine is only in 16% of lineups and is available in 67% of leagues.
Westbrook-Ikhine's eight touchdowns on 20 receptions are due for massive regression. However, the 27-year-old has improved his Utilization Score by 1.3 points over the last month and has a 6.2 mark since taking over a starting role. Over that stretch, he has an 18% target share, eclipsing 20% in three of six starts.

Most of NWI's comps have finished as a WR4 or lower (62%), but 28% notched a WR3 campaign, and 10% managed a WR2 season. We can target good matchups with that profile, and the Titans face Jacksonville. The Jaguars are the best matchup for WRs in fantasy.
Westbrook-Ikhine UPGRADES to borderline WR3 territory and offers WR2 spike potential.
Johnson is only in 3% of lineups and is available in 94% of leagues.
Taysom Hill is out for the season, leaving the Saints without many pass-catching options. With Hill injured, Johnson collected season-highs in multiple utilization categories in Week 13.
Johnson UPGRADES to borderline TE1 territory against the Giants.
If you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.
Season: 12 of 16
See downgrades.



