Week 14 WR Rankings: George Pickens, A.J. Brown and More
Matthew Freedman breaks down the biggest upgrades in his Week 14 WR rankings for fantasy football.
It's Week 14.
I don't have time to write an intro and you don't have time to read one.
Let's get into the Week 14 WR Rankings edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series and my Week 14 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 14 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 14 Wide Receiver Rankings
Week 14 WR Rankings Matchup Upgrades: Jaylen Waddle vs. Jets & Adonai Mitchell vs. Dolphins
There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Dolphins, Jets, and Cowboys are three of the biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.
- Dolphins: No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.7%)
- Jets: No. 32 in defensive dropback DVOA (37.1%)
- Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+7.8)
Bang a gong.
Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) at Jets: Since Week 5, Waddle has a 52% air yard share and 33% endzone target share, which he has translated into 35-577-3 receiving in eight games without No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill (knee, IR). The Jets traded away CBs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter about a month ago, and CB Jarvis Brownlee (hip) and FS Tony Adams (groin) might be out.
Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs. Dolphins: I'm increasingly intrigued. I wouldn't start him in Guillotine Leagues™, but in his three Jets games without No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson (knee, IR), Mitchell has an obscene 60% air yards share and 100% endzone target share with an 83% route rate. Last week, Mitchell finally converted his usage into production (20.2 fantasy points on 8-102-1 receiving), and I don't think that was fluke: Mitchell is maximizing his starter reps.
Isaac TeSlaa (Lions) vs. Cowboys: Last week—without WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and Kalif Raymond (ankle) and TEs Sam LaPorta (back, IR) and Brock Wright (back)—the rookie TeSlaa had a season-high 92% snap rate, and for the season he has an efficient 9.1 yards per target. TeSlaa should be added on waivers where available. At home with QB Jared Goff, the Lions are 27-15-1 ATS (22.5%, per Action Network), and they've had the league's best home-field advantage over the past five years (+7.58, per NFElo).
Scoring Upgrades in the Week 14 WR Rankings: Davante Adams vs. Cardinals & Christian Watson vs. Bears
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the WR."
This week, the Rams are No. 2 in implied team total (28.5 points) while the Packers are No. 5 (25.5).
Upgrade warranted.
Davante Adams (Rams) at Cardinals: For the first time since 2019, Adams probably won't hit the 1,000-yard mark for the season … but the dude has eight TDs receiving in five games since the Week 8 bye and an NFL-high 14 TDs on the year. The Cards could be without CB Max Melton (heel) and are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (51.3%).
Christian Watson (Packers) vs. Bears: In six games since his Week 8 return, Watson has functioned as the No. 1 WR for the Pack with a 78% route rate, 20% target share, and 42% air yard share, which he has turned into 21-363-3 receiving. No. 3 WR Matthew Golden (wrist) last played in Week 11, and the Bears could be without CB Tyrique Stevenson (hip). The Packers at home with HC Matt LaFleur are 36-23 ATS (17.1% ROI), and while the game total is 44.5 points, I have the over projected as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.
Week 14 WR Rankings Indoors Upgrades: George Pickens vs. Lions & Terry McLaurin vs. Vikings
In general, I want to be heavy on WRs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature, or precipitation. Here are two such WRs who stand out.
George Pickens (Cowboys) at Lions: As great as CeeDee Lamb is … Pickens looks like the No. 1 WR for the Cowboys. In three games since the Week 10 bye, Pickens has 24-378-2 receiving on 33 targets and a position-best 97 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The Lions are No. 31 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+5.7) and could be without two secondary starters in CB Terrion Arnold (shoulder, IR) and FS Kerby Joseph (knee).
Terry McLaurin (Commanders) at Vikings: This has been an injury-plagued lost season for McLaurin, but he did ball out with 7-96-1 receiving on 14 targets last week in his return to action, and he has a shot to get back QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) this week. The Vikings are No. 25 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (14.5%).
Offensive Injury Upgrades in the Week 14 WR Rankings: Jakobi Meyers vs. Colts & Darnell Mooney vs. Seahawks
Here are a couple of WRs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.
Jakobi Meyers (Jaguars) vs. Colts: Brian Thomas didn't look much like a No. 1 WR in his return to action last week, and No. 3 WR Parker Washington (hip) exited early. Meyers initially eased into the offense following his Week 10 trade to the Jags, but over the past two games he has played a full-time role with 10-140-2 receiving on a 93% route rate and 24% target share. The Colts are No. 5 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+4.2), and CB Sauce Gardner (calf) is all but certain to be out.
Darnell Mooney (Falcons) vs. Seahawks: No. 1 WR Drake London (knee) has neither practiced nor played over the past two weeks, and in his absence Mooney has had a 95% route rate, 37% air yard share, and 50% endzone target share. His 5-99-1 receiving on that usage is nothing special, but Mooney has the potential to go off.
Week 14 WR Rankings Defensive Injury Upgrades: Zay Flowers vs. Steelers & Jerry Jeudy vs. Titans
Here are a couple of WRs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.
Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Steelers: Flowers massively disappointed last week with 2-6-0 receiving, but he also had seven targets, and in his eight other games this year with QB Lamar Jackson, he has put up 614 yards on 53 targets and seven carries. The Steelers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.4), and CB James Pierre (concussion) is questionable.
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs. Titans: This is gross, but Jeudy has an 88% route rate and 41% air yard share in QB Shedeur Sanders' two starts. The Titans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (40.3%), No. 1 CB L'Jarius Sneed (quad, IR) is out, and No. 2 CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Achilles) is uncertain.
Air Yards Upgrades in the Week 14 WR Rankings: A.J. Brown vs. Chargers & Devaughn Vele vs. Buccaneers
The WRs who are targeted downfield—the guys with high aDOTs, air yard shares, and WOPRs—have an elevated chance each week of enjoying a spike performance.
You can see aDOT, air yards, and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.
Here are two air yard accumulators who have my attention this week.
A.J. Brown (Eagles) at Chargers: Brown missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury and then had a reduced role in his Week 10 return off the bye. But in his three games since then, Brown has a dominant 37% target share, 40% air yard share, and 50% endzone share, which he has turned into 25-291-3 receiving on 33 targets.
Devaughn Vele (Saints) at Buccaneers: In Week 10, Vele became a full-time player with the trade of No. 2 WR Rashid Shaheed. In Week 12, Vele earned seven targets with the deactivation of No. 3 WR Brandin Cooks. And then last week, he turned eight targets into 8-93-1 receiving with a 40% air yard share and 33% endzone share. Vele's usage might be for real, and the Bucs are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (50.7%).
Notes For My Week 14 Wide Receiver Rankings
Byes: This week, all Patriots, 49ers, Panthers, and Giants are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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