Ian Hartitz offers Week 15 bold predictions, top matchups and mismatches, and much more in Ian's Manifesto.

And just like that: Week 15 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

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1. What QBs have been playing their best ball in recent weeks? 

We'll use Week 8 as our cutoff so every QB has had the opportunity to play at least six games in the sample barring injury. In terms of EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected…

There are three names in the upper right quadrant with cozy enough matchups in Week 15 to deserve the nod in close start/sit decisions:

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: No. 2 in EPA per dropback (+0.330) and No. 6 in CPOE (+6.5%) during this sample, Tua leads the league in passing yards since returning from injury and has helped the Dolphins score the league's fourth-most points over the past seven weeks of action. This has helped him rack up the sixth-most fantasy points, including four consecutive top-10 finishes–the longest such streak by anyone other than Josh Allen (5) and Joe Burrow (5). This offense looks plenty capable of cooking against just about anyone at the moment, especially a Texans defense that surrendered surprisingly passable performances to Mac Jones (235-2-0), Will Levis (278-2-1), and Cooper Rush (354-1-1) in three games before their Week 14 bye. Tua is deserving of top-10 treatment in this spot; I would start him ahead of guys like Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Anthony Richardson, among others.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford: Threw for just *3* TDs in the first six games of the season with no Puka Nacua and (mostly) no Cooper Kupp. In seven games since? Stafford has a whopping 16 scores through the air–more than anyone other than Joe Burrow (19). The results in fantasy land have accordingly been stellar, as Stafford has posted top-9 numbers in four of his last seven starts. I'm not anticipating the good times to stop rolling ahead of Thursday night's date with a 49ers defense that could still be without Nick Bosa. Stafford is more than deserving of starting treatment ahead of guys like Geno Smith, Caleb Williams, Russell Wilson, and Anthony Richardson.

Vikings QB Sam Darnold: Credit Darnold, credit his baller WRs, credit Kevin O'Connell, credit whoever you want: The veteran gunslinger has played the position as well as anyone in recent weeks even in some relatively tougher matchups. With QB7, QB6, QB12, and most recently QB2 fantasy finishes to his name, it's tough to name more than a few hotter passers at the moment. I'm not expecting Darnold and Co. to cool off at home against the same Bears defense he torched for 330 yards and two scores just a few weeks ago. The QB7 in fantasy points per game on the season is my QB6 on the week behind only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow.

Now let's take a look at the RB position…

2. Who are the league's true workhorse RBs at the moment?

I put together the chart below to get an idea of who is commanding the most volume RIGHT NOW ahead of the fantasy playoffs. Note that I used Week 13 usage numbers for the six teams who spent last week on bye.

You should already be aware that guys like Chuba Hubbard and Chase Brown in addition to the Saquon Barkleys and Derrick Henrys of the world need to be in starting lineups of all shapes and sizes (if you weren't aware, well, you are now), but the following less-clear four players also have the sort of RB1-level volume that should make them starters in far more lineups than not for the time being.

Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle: Has peeled off touch counts of 22, 25, and 19 over the past three weeks as his offense's clear-cut featured RB. While the Cowboys offense still doesn't exactly boast the league's highest weekly scoring ceiling, this sort of volume is tough to fade in fantasy land–especially ahead of the position's single-best matchup against a Panthers defense that has allowed a whopping +7.9 fantasy points above expected to opposing RBs this season. Dowdle is an upside RB2 in this spot and someone who should be starting ahead of Chiefs and Steelers RBs among others this week.

Giants RB Tyrone Tracy:  The rookie's ball security issues haven't impacted his usage, as Tracy saw a season-high 26 combined carries and targets last week. It'd be a lot cooler if there were more fantasy-friendly goal-line opportunities to go around inside this Drew Lock-led offense, but that sort of pass-game volume can't be ignored ahead of a matchup with a Ravens defense that has allowed bottom-five marks in receiving yards and targets to opposing RBs. This obviously isn't a smash spot, but similar to Dowdle, Tracy at least deserves the nod ahead of more split backfields like the Jets, Browns, Steelers, Chiefs, Jaguars, and Raiders.

Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet: This is where things get really juicy. Kenneth Walker (calf) looks to be at risk of missing multiple games, meaning Charbonnet could continue to work as the Seahawks' featured three-down back. This role has produced touch counts of 19, 21, and 29 on snap rates of 96%, 84%, and 80% in three spot starts this season–that's legit top-10 usage ladies and (mostly) gentlemen. Unlike with Dowdle and Tracy, there's a bit more scoring upside in this Seattle offense, and I'm accordingly willing to rank Charbonnet as a legit RB1 this week ahead of guys like Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, and James Cook.

Bucs RB Rachaad White: This "must start" ideology is contingent on Bucky Irving's back staying tight, but White shouldn't be discarded even if the Bucs get their stud rookie RB back for Week 15's matchup with the Chargers. After all, White has only finished outside the position's top-24 PPR performers once since returning from injury in Week 7, as his pass-down role and improved efficiency on the ground have been more than enough to produce bunches of fantasy points inside the Bucs' fifth-ranked scoring offense. Without Bucky, fire up White as a legit top-15 play at the position, while the third-year veteran will be more of a low-end RB2 should Irving manage to suit up.

Fun times, but now let's get a bit negative and address some pass catchers who simply aren't getting many chances to touch the football in recent weeks.

3. What WRs simply aren't getting enough volume these days?

You probably spent some high draft capital on these guys back in August, and maybe they even returned some solid games earlier in the season—but those days sure look to be in the rearview mirror because (get this): You can't score fantasy points without getting the football.

49ers WR Deebo Samuel: The 49ers' WR/RB hybrid hasn't found the end zone or reached triple-digit total yards since Week 5. Hell, Samuel has now gone four consecutive games without even 25 receiving yards—last year he had only three such performances ALL SEASON. Luckily, Deebo is taking the struggles in stride; just kidding he's popping off on social media about not getting the ball. At this point it's clear the passing game is flowing through Jauan Jennings and George Kittle, and even a banged-up RB room hasn't resulted in too many touches on the ground. Deebo certainly hasn't helped his cause there: His average of 2.9 yards per carry is the third-lowest mark among 98 players with at least 30 rush attempts this season. Even in what would normally classify as a smash spot against the Rams, Samuel is nothing more than a boom or (more likely) bust WR4.

Eagles WR A.J. Brown: One of the best WR talents in the league hasn't had double-digit targets in a game since Week 1. Guys like Hunter Henry and Elijah Moore have more targets than Brown since he returned from injury in Week 6. Wan'Dale f*cking Robinson has just one less target (in one less game!) during this span. AJB doesn't seem too happy about this, noting Philly's offense needs to improve on, "Passing." The locker room vibes don't seem great here, although Kellen Moore does seem to recognize Brown needs more targets. Reminder: Brown is still amazing at football, as evidenced by his average of 3.15 yards per route run—a mark that trails only Puka Nacua and Nico Collins among all WRs with 50-plus targets this season. Alas, this is life inside the league's single-most run-heavy offense in terms of dropback rate over expected (-9%). You're going to have a very tough time putting Brown on the bench, but it might not be a bad idea for Guillotine League^TM members, as the projected volume here is that of more of an upside WR2 in fantasy land these days.

Packers WR Jayden Reed: The Packers have fed Reed 3 or fewer targets in four of his last six games. The WR position's leader in rushing yards also has only 2 carries over the last five weeks. While Reed is still a threat to pop a big play or find the end zone, this is scary-low volume, and the offense should welcome back Romeo Doubs (concussion) before too long. Ultimately, Green Bay seems content to run the ball and spread things out in their passing game. This has worked out perfectly fine in real life for the league's seventh-ranked scoring offense, but it leaves Reed as more of a WR4 moving forward despite the reality that he's probably the Packers' best real-life talent at the position.

While volume should be the primary driver when making start/sit decisions, we need to account for especially tough matchups as well.

4. What BRUTAL Week 15 Matchups Are True Stay-Away Situations?

The Fantasy Life DVP tool is pretty cool because it not only tells you how many fantasy points per game defenses are allowing to each position, but also the number of points above or below expectation.

Accordingly, these four Week 15 matchups look really tough on paper:

Texans C.J. Stroud vs. Dolphins (-3.3 fantasy points to QBs): Stroud has just two top-10 fantasy finishes all season long, and none since Week 4. Maybe the bye week was all this passing game needed to get back to partying like it's 2023 again, but it won't be easy against a Dolphins defense that has allowed a league-low 14.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Jalen Ramsey and Co. have shown some cracks in recent weeks against Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers, although expecting this bottom-6 offensive line to hold up against Chop Robinson and Co. might be wishful thinking. I'm treating Stroud as the mid-to-low-end QB2 that he's been all season in this spot.

Browns RB Jerome Ford and Nick Chubb vs. Chiefs (-5.6 fantasy points to RBs): The Browns are content to split touches fairly evenly between these two, making Chubb a complete stay-away due to his lack of efficiency (3.1 YPC) behind this bad/injured offensive line, and Ford nothing more than a low-end RB3 in full PPR formats. Kansas City's defense has indeed slipped in recent weeks, but it's been far more against the pass than the run. Consider: No RB has cracked 20 PPR points against the Chiefs this season, and only James Cook (19.7) and Chuba Hubbard (15) have managed 15. I will be answering the vast majority of close-ish start/sit decisions involving a Browns RB with the other guy.

Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Eagles (-3.6 fantasy points to WRs): Already a tough enough matchup, and now we also have to consider the potential for Pickens to re-injure his hamstring if he manages to play at all. Throw in an annoying late Sunday afternoon kickoff, and Pickens will be in WR4 territory if considered a game-time decision in this one.

Bucs TE Cade Otton vs. Chargers (-3.2 fantasy points to TEs): Otton was THE TE1 from Weeks 7 to 10 as largely the focal point of the Bucs offense, but he's slipped to TE21 in three games since returning from the bye. The return of Mike Evans certainly hasn't helped; just realize Otton also isn't exactly a top-10 real-life option at the position, making it easier for defenses to limit him if they really want to. Expect this to be the case against Derwin James and Co. this week; Otton isn't in my top-15 options at the position.

Staying on the topic of tough sits…

5. Can we REALLY trust any 49ers RB This Week?

Not really, although beggars can't be choosers, and Patrick Taylor is accordingly one of the top waiver wire additions of the week.

That said: Taylor won't be gracing my top-24 options at the position due to the reality that we have *zero* evidence that Kyle Shanahan and Co. will trust him to handle anything close to a three-down role. Could Shanny say f*ck it and give the fourth-year back 30 combined carries and targets? I guess, but remember: This is a guy who has played just 41 total snaps on offense all season, including just *three* in pass pro.

Reminder: Elijah Mitchell posted a lowly 52% snap rate in Week 18 last year with Christian McCaffrey sidelined, and Trey Sermon had sub-60% marks in his only two career starts on the squad. Hell, Jordan Mason might have made the most out of his rush attempts as the team's lead back, but he had just *one* game with more than 11 receiving yards. Kudos to Isaac Guerendo for actually having the sort of dual-threat ability to work as a middle-class man's CMC last week; just realize we have plenty of examples of the 49ers' next-man-up not exactly being given a "can't miss" three-down role in fantasy land.

It's possible Ke'Shawn Vaughn or Israel Abanikanda carve out some touches, or perhaps outside competition like FB Kyle Juszczyk or WR/RB Deebo Samuel wind up working as the de facto RBs. We truly don't know, and anyone who says otherwise is a big fat phony.

Ideally, Isaac Guerendo (foot) manages to miraculously suit up on Thursday with no concern for limited reps, but that feels like a bit of a pipe dream at the moment. It's a shame considering the plus matchup against the Rams' 24th-ranked scoring defense; unfortunately the only 49ers skill-position players who need to be in starting lineups are WR Jauan Jennings and TE George Kittle at the moment.

Speaking of good matchups…

6. Who has the best and worst schedules for the fantasy playoffs?

I've put together the best and worst schedules in terms average PPR points allowed to each position on a few occasions this year, so why not one more before the biggest home stretch of the season?

Feel free to click the hyperlink on each position for a full chart.

Quarterback:

• Best schedules: Titans, Giants, Raiders, Cardinals, Panthers
• Worst schedules: Lions, Patriots, Vikings, Seahawks, 49ers
• Focus: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who gets the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams to end the season. Things haven't gone great for the QB11 in fantasy points per game, but it'll be tough to keep Kyler out of the top 10 in each of these respective potential smash spots. The pint-sized franchise QB does deserve credit for clearing 250 pass yards in five of his last six games after surpassing that threshold just once in his first seven contests; a boom or two on the ground could result in a top-5 finish here.

Running Back:

• Best schedules: Jets, Lions, Titans, Vikings, Cardinals
• Worst schedules: Steelers, Chiefs, Texans, Bears, Bills
• Focus: Titans RB Tony Pollard, who gets the Bengals, Colts, and Jaguars in Weeks 15-17. The Titans spoke all offseason about Pollard and Tyjae Spears being interchangeable, but that simply hasn't been the case—the ex-Cowboy is truly the workhorse and should have every opportunity to end the season in style with three straight smash matchups. This is also a good reminder that Spears remains one of the better handcuff stashes out there (same with Trey Benson and to a lesser extent Cam Akers).

Wide Receiver:

• Best schedules: Raiders, Giants, Bears, Packers, Titans
• Worst schedules: Jaguars, Colts, Lions, Cowboys, Rams
• Focus: Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers, who will face the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints to close out the fantasy season. The reality that Aidan O'Connell (knee) reportedly avoided major injury definitely helps here, and accordingly Meyers should have every chance to stay hot. Consider: He's posted PPR WR20, WR16, WR48, WR7, WR25, and WR27 finishes since returning from injury; don't be surprised if more upside WR2 goodness is on the way for this potential sneaky league winner.

Tight end:

• Best schedules: Titans, Browns, Texans, Vikings, Saints
• Worst schedules: Rams, Patriots, Bills, Ravens, Colts
• Focus: Browns TE David Njoku, who has a chance to end 2024 in style against the Chiefs, Bengals, and Dolphins. The TE5 since Jameis Winston took over in Week 8, Njoku is serving the "F*ck it" role for Winston when all else fails, leading to plenty of contested-catch opportunities. Fun fact: Only Ja'Marr Chase (12) and Demarcus Robinson (8, lol) have more end-zone targets than Njoku (7) since Winston took over. I'm comfortable firing up Njoku as THE TE1 in fantasy for this stretch run.

DST:

• Best schedules: Jaguars, Bengals, Colts, Raiders, Packers
• Worst schedules: Steelers, Patriots, Texans, Jets, 49ers
• Focus: Colts DST, who don't exactly have a layup this week in Mile High against the Broncos, but we're talking about two potential SMASH matchups in Weeks 16 and 17 against turnover-prone QBs Will Levis and Drew Lock. 

7. Fraud check: Which top Week 14 performances were real?

The following players ripped off sterling top-12 PPR performances last week, but that doesn't mean the production is here to stay. Presenting: Fraud check, where we (me) decide if last week's biggest stars are here to stay, or if we simply just witnessed a one-off boom.

Lions QB Jared Goff (QB5): Obviously, Goff is not a real-life fraud by any stretch, but last week's top-5 finish marked just his second time finishing better than QB15 in his last seven games. While volume is usually the primary issue for Goff, he's tossed 41, 34, and 36 passes over the past three weeks—due in part to the Lions defense starting to ride the struggle bus a bit recently due to injures. The Bills are indeed one of the league's better defenses, but as we saw last week, they can certainly be had by an elite offense, and the Lions certainly qualify. I'm not expecting another top-5 performance from Goff; just realize he's always capable of top-12 numbers when Detroit decides to air it out, which will probably be a necessity this week.

Cardinals RB James Conner (RB7): Hasn't been bad this season by any stretch of the imagination, but last week was just the second time in 11 tries that Conner finished better than the PPR RB15! Don't be surprised if that was just the start of a STRONG finish to 2024: Conner is set up better than almost anyone down the stretch with one of the position's single-coziest schedules during the fantasy playoffs. First up is a Patriots defense that has been better vs. the run than pass in recent weeks, but the expected positive game script in this one still locks Conner in as a top-15 play and recommended start.

Vikings WR Jordan Addison (WR3): Has posted PPR WR81, WR18, WR61, WR24, WR1, WR45, and now WR3 finishes in his last seven games. Consider: Addison has outproduced teammate Justin Jefferson in PPR points (115 vs. 99.3) and air yards (546 vs. 507) during this stretch, while only narrowly losing the target battle (45 vs. 47). Both have posted top-10 numbers at the WR position; we might simply be looking at a Ja'Marr Chase-Tee Higgins situation here where both need to be started on a weekly basis. I'm inclined to ride the hot streak and prefer Addison ahead of guys like Marvin Harrison, Jayden Reed, and BrIan Thomas, among others.

Saints TE Juwan Johnson (TE3): Has a pair of top-10 finishes in his last three games after previously finishing as the TE19 or worse in every game since Week 1. While we can anticipate the enhanced role staying with Taysom Hill (knee) done for the season, it's tough to be overly excited about the upside for anyone involved here without Derek Carr (hand, concussion) under center. I'm pushing Johnson back down the ranks; Alvin Kamara is the only member of this offense who should be anywhere close to a starting fantasy lineup.

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 15?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y."

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

• Explosive passing offense: The Ravens, Falcons, Lions, and Vikings passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Patriots, Browns, and Raiders aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
• Explosive running offense: The Ravens, Buccaneers, and Cardinals look especially poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Rams, Browns, and Giants, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
• Pressure: The Cowboys, Jets, Dolphins, and Buccaneers look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Steelers, Eagles, Vikings, and Chiefs could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
• Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Commanders, Ravens, and Eagles might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Texans, Seahawks, and Jaguars.
• Pass yards per dropback: The best set-up passing attacks look like the 49ers, Ravens, Lions, and Vikings this week, while the worst look like the Patriots, Bears, Giants, and Browns.
• EPA per play: Rams-49ers and Bills-Lions stand out as the week's most likely back-and-forth shootouts, whereas Colts-Broncos and Dolphins-Texans looks like the week's top defensive slugfests.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *meh* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

1. Bills-Lions. Easy consensus No. 1.
2. Rams-49ers. Thursday Night Football stays hot!
3. Chiefs-Browns. I refuse to rank any game involving Jameis Winston lower than third.
4. Steelers-Eagles. The battle for Pennsylvania will be more fun if it includes George Pickens and his antics, but even if not: It's hard not to be at least a little excited about a matchup featuring two of the league's five teams with double-digit wins.
5. Packers-Seahawks. Sunday Night Football is a dark horse matchup to produce the most points of the week if the best versions of Jordan Love and Geno Smith show up to play.
6. Dolphins-Texans. Tied for the third-highest game total of the week, Tua Tagovailoa and Co. are back to looking like the greatest show on surf, while … maybe C.J. Stroud and Houston just needed a bye week to get right? We can hope.
7. Buccaneers-Chargers. The week's last matchup that pits too verifiably *good* teams against each other. It'd be a lot cooler if both offenses were fully healthy at RB and WR, but Justin Herbert vs. Baker Mayfield still figures to provide some late-afternoon goodness.
8. Bengals-Titans. The Brian Callahan revenge game! Also simply another Bengals game, which probably means Joe Burrow and Co. will score a ton of points while watching their defense inexplicably keep the opponent in it. Fun! Unless you're a Bengals fan, of course.
9. Ravens-Giants. It hurts to put Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry this low, but we are talking about the Giants here. Here's to hoping Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy can at least provide some flashes.
10. Patriots-Cardinals. Drake Maye is like if Justin Herbert had Jameis Winston's brain (maybe that's just Brett Favre?), and he's accordingly a ton of fun to watch despite, you know, the Patriots arguably being the worst team in the league. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are occasionally a great time when operating at peak efficiency, even if those flashes have been few and far between for most of the season.
11. Bears-Vikings. The last matchup between these squads wound up being quite fun. I trust Sam Darnold and Co. to put up plenty of fireworks on their end, but the Bears' tendency to resemble the league's very worst offense for the first 30 minutes of most games makes it tough to be overly pumped here.
12. Colts-Broncos. The Anthony Richardson experience is usually pretty fun for better or worse, especially with the second-year QB typically saving his best for the fourth quarter. Still, this one smells like a rough afternoon for Indy's offense against Pat Surtain and Co., meaning Bo Nix and Co. might not have to keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes.
13. Cowboys-Panthers. It's been fun watching Bryce Young keep the cardiac Panthers competitive in recent weeks, but not so fun watching the Cooper Rush experience. Cowboys-Panthers has the third-lowest game total of Week 15.
14. Commanders-Saints. A healthy and well-rested Jayden Daniels? Yay! The bigger problem is either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler leading what was already a pretty brutal Saints offense to watch.
15. Jets-Jaguars. Every Jets game is more sad than the last, but wouldn't it be quite hilarious if they somehow lose to Mac Jones and the Jaguars? They probably won't, but you could imagine what it'd be like if they did. 
16. Falcons-Raiders. Thank God there are two Monday night games this week. And thank God for Brock Bowers.

10. Three bold predictions for Week 15:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

• Bills RB James Cook: The odd man out in Week 14, I expect the Bills to take a page out of the Packers' playbook and really look to attack this injury-riddled Lions front. While this group has been awesome at stopping the run all year, it's a tall ask to keep that going against an offense like this with so many backups now populating the front-seven. Cook is also overdue for one of his patented wheel-route scores. I'm calling for 120-plus total yards and two trips (one rushing, one receiving) to the end zone for the Bills' multi-dimensional RB1.
• Titans WR Calvin Ridley: Expect Brian Callahan to put together the best game plan possible against his former employer, who just so happens to boast the sort of high-scoring offense and horrific defense to generally coax the best out of their opponent's offense. It's been a bumpy first season in Tennessee for Ridley, but he's a few solid games away from at least clearing the 1,000-yard mark for the third time in his career. Throw in the reality that Will Levis has played something close to average football since returning from injury, and I like Ridley catching 7 passes for 115 yards and a TD this Sunday.
• Commanders RB Brian Robinson: The Commanders' RB1 had a bye week to get healthy and now faces a Saints team likely very low on optimism with their QB1, WR1, WR2, and TE1 all seemingly done for the season. The potential for 20-plus touches from a #good RB on a 7-point favorite is tough to complain about. Give me 125 total yards and two trips to the end zone for Brian RB1son in this smash spot.

Players highlighted last week and results: Tyrone Tracy (83 yards, 1 TD), Christian Watson (4-114-0), Khalil Shakir (5-106-1).

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