Week 16 Is Not Too Early For These Fantasy Football Championship Options

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:

An interesting thing happened at the end of the 1990 NFC Championship game. Bill Parcells had just led the New York Giants to a 15-13 upset victory at San Francisco. It was one of the greatest upsets in championship game history, so one would expect that Parcells would take a bit of time to enjoy the accomplishment.

Instead, one of the first things he did was go to Offensive Coordinator Ron Erhardt and say, “shorten the game.” Parcells was already thinking ahead to what approach his team would take if the Giants were to face Buffalo in the Super Bowl. That “shorten the game” approach worked like a champ (Bill Belichick’s Super Bowl XXV defensive game plan is on display in the Hall of Fame) and led to New York pulling off another upset win to claim a Super Bowl title.

Look Ahead to a Title

Fantasy managers who have made it to the semifinal round should celebrate their success, but they should adopt that Parcells lookahead approach when building rosters at this time of year. You need a certain amount of roster depth for injuries, but let’s be blunt—if you lose a key player due to injury in Week 16, your team probably won’t survive until the championship round.

That means once you have decided upon your Week 16 roster, you should then consider stocking your bench with Week 17 roster plays.

For example, Las Vegas is by far the best offense a D/ST can face right now. The Raiders have allowed 23 sacks over the past four weeks, and Geno Smith has the third-highest interception rate this season.

That should make the Giants a solidly rostered D/ST since they face the Raiders in Week 17. New York has tallied eight sacks in its last three games. The Giants aren’t a D/ST you’ll want to start versus most matchups, which is why New York is available in 91% of leagues, but you’ll want the potential upside they bring for this championship week mismatch.

Another candidate here is Michael Carter. He is the Cardinals’ lead running back and is due to face Cincinnati’s rush defense in Week 17. The Bengals have allowed 372 yards on the ground over the past two weeks. That combination should make Carter highly rostered, yet he’s rostered in 33% of leagues right now.

The same can be said of Devin Singletary (26% roster rate), Dalton Schultz (52%) and Darren Waller (53%), each of whom has a great Week 17 matchup and yet can be picked up for nothing in a high percentage of leagues.

This doesn’t have to be a one-week approach. Some of these players can also help you in Week 16. Peter Overzet illustrates this with his review of why Waller is the TE hero you need in Week 16.

Ian Hartitz's eight things you need to know for Week 16 (a weekly must-read for those who want some of the best deep-dive analysis in fantasy football) details more reasons why Carter is someone you want to roster.

The lookahead approach gave Parcells his second Super Bowl ring. If you do the same in fantasy football, it could be just the edge you need to win a championship of your own.

A QB WITH FANTASTIC CLOSING MATCHUPS

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About Last Night …

Well, since the fantasy community is in the semifinals of the playoffs, the Rams-Seahawks played their own version of a playoff game, with the No. 1 seed in the NFC at stake. All we saw was the Seahawks come back from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit to score a pair of TDs with the two-point conversions to force overtime. Then they answered Puka Nacua’s second TD to cap off his monster night with a long TD drive that culminated with little-used Eric Saubert catching the game-winning two-pointer for an incomprehensible 38-37 overtime victory in raucous Seattle. Here are the highlights from an unforgettable game:

Kenneth Walker III rolls 55 yards to the house, on the way to 11-100-1.
Matthew Stafford with the no-look pass, on the way to 457 passing yards, 3 TDs and 30.88 fantasy points.
This Rashid Shaheed punt return for a TD prompted cooterdoodle to buy another jersey.
There will never be a two-point conversion like this one.
Puka with the 41-yard exclamation point on his 12-225-2 monster night. Good luck catching up to that 46.5-pointer.
This Puka catch is a work of art.
JSN working overtime to finally get in the end zone. JSN finished 8-96-1 for 23.6 fantasy points.
Sam Darnold to Saubert for the two-pointer and calling game.

WHO'S WR1 BETWEEN PUKA AND JSN?

Editors’ Picks

There’s more semi-finals work to be done after last night’s action, so our Fantasy Life content, Rankings and Xfinity Best Projections will guide you on the way …

Week 16 Smash Starts

If you’re concerned about starting Joe Burrow and A.J. Brown after down weeks, don’t be. Mark Drumheller drops the smash starts for Week 16 to boost your playoff victories.

Week 16 Injury Report

Do you have a WR with questionable status going into the weekend? Adam Ronis and Jorge Martin run through all the fantasy-relevant injury situations so you can set your playoff lineups.

Week 16 Roundtable

Three months ago, if we told you that you’d be staring at a graphic with Marcus Mariota, Philip Rivers and Gardner Minshew on it, you’d call us crazy, right? Welcome to Week 16. Pete, cooterdoodle and Jake dive into the most pressing topics.

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em For Week 16

If you are starting your playoffs this week, welcome to the win-or-go-home edition of fantasy football. If you are still alive, let’s get to the championship.

Let's get into Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for Week 16.

RELATED: Pair these start/sit recommendations with our fantasy football start/sit too l, presented by Xfinity!

START: Aaron Jones, RB, MIN

LAGHEZZA: May as well go out with a bang. I’ve always loved Aaron Jones as a reliable fantasy producer and dual-threat option, though there’s currently no denying it. We’ve gotten precisely none of that goodness this year. Sure, Jones missed a month to injury, but zero top-10 finishes entering Week 16? Downright shocking. Things couldn’t have gone worse for the Vikings through three months as a whole, though as they say, battleships don’t turn on a dime—two straight wins and suddenly, the sun’s poking through.

I wish I could say Jones ran away with the RB job upon returning from injury, but it hasn’t happened yet. As the more well-rounded player, Jones’ ability to block or properly read blitzes will keep him on the field as an insurance policy for J.J. McCarthy. Expect Kevin O’Connell to do everything in his power to keep his QB upright. Translation: Jones should continue seeing the lion’s share of touches.

In seven games back to a full complement of snaps, Jones ran well (4.7 YPC, 49% success, 10.7% explosive rush), with the same impressive target-earning ability as always (22.3% target/route). And if efficiency’s the only thing lacking for a fantasy explosion, the Giants will cure what ails you.

Is anyone worse at stopping the run over a two-month span? You be the judge …

-0.19 EPA/Rush: Last
51.4% Success Rate: Last
176.4 Rushing Yards Per Game: 31st
5.9 Yards Per Carry: 31st
2.38 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: Last
9 +20-Yard Carries: 31st
11.0% Explosive Rush Rate: T-31st

WR/CB Matchups To Target and Fade in Week 16

TARGET: Jauan Jennings | SF

To be honest, I wouldn’t necessarily recommend a contextualized usage profile like Jauan Jennings’ after looking at his last month of action (pinch to zoom in below!).

Most 49ers’ fans hoped this would happen at some point. Not specifically Jennings going from the team’s WR1 at a 25% target rate with Brock Purdy back under center to an 18% share on Sunday, but the ascension of Ricky Pearsall. San Francisco’s second-year receiver was finally flashing some of the same talent we saw toward the backend of ’24. Accordingly, Jennings ran fewer routes from the slot, essentially operating as a perimeter threat. However, his targets weren’t empty-calorie looks.

Jennings earned 50.0% of the red-zone pass attempts. In fact, four of his five targets on the day came when the 49ers were in scoring position. Luckily, half of his snags in this area of the field turned into a score. And it’d be fair to say we can’t count on receivers getting into the end zone every week, but the soon-to-be free agent has some added motivation.

We’ve been tracking 2025 NFL contract incentives, and as the 49ers continue to make their case for the postseason, their needs align with Jennings’ financial aspirations. Plus, Pearsall’s PCL re-aggravation should mean more opportunities for the veteran. And after watching multiple WR1s turn in double-digit PPR-point outings against the Colts (Jaxon Smith-Njigba —18.3, Jakobi Meyers—14.8, Nico Collins—14.8, Rashee Rice—24.1), Jennings has top-12 upside in Week 16.

MORE MATCHUPS TO TARGET AND FADE