It is time to set our fantasy lineups for the semi-finals of the fantasy playoffs in Week 16, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the ranks to help you make those start-sit decisions.

Risers In My Week 16 Rankings For Fantasy Football

See below for the biggest upgrades in my rankings, ordered positionally.

Jacoby Brissett is a top-six fantasy QB in Week 16.

Since taking over as the Cardinals' starter in Week 6, Brissett is the QB4 with 20.7 points per game (PPG). Over the last two weeks, he has overcome difficult matchups against the Rams and Texans, delivering 19.0 and 20.6 fantasy points. His worst game in nine starts: 17.4 points.

The Cardinals have been the most pass-happy team in the league since Brissett became the starter. Over that span, they have a 6% dropback rate over expected (DBOE). Over the last five weeks, they have a league-leading 10% DBOE, leading to a whopping 78% dropback rate.

While Brissett has never had a season like this before, it's hard to look at his nine-game sample and not consider him one of the best QB options.  

Projection Model (using my PPR projections):

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 24.0
• Median: 18.7
• Floor: 14.8

Brissett is my QB4 against the Falcons in Week 16.

QB Rapid Fire: Week 16 Rankings Upgrades & Pending News

• Jared Goff | Lions: Goff is the QB9 this season with 18.3 PPG. The Lions are seven-point favorites over the Steelers and offer the No. 1 team total at 28.3. The Steelers have provided the No. 6 fantasy boost to WR rooms at 2.8 points per game. Goff projects for 18.6 points with an Xfinity Best ceiling of 22.4 points. He is a mid-range QB1. 
   
• Brock Purdy | 49ers: Purdy erupted for 26.2 points in Week 15 against the Titans. He has averaged 18.2 PPG in six starts. This weekend, he faces a Colts team that could be without Sauce Gardner again. Indianapolis has boosted opposing QB passing yards per game by 44 yards over the last four weeks. The 49ers have the fifth-best team total (25.5) on the slate. Purdy projects for 17.2 points and a 22.4-point Xfinity Best ceiling, making him a mid-range QB1.

Travis Etienne Jr. climbs the ranks with Bhayshul Tuten sidelined. 

Etienne was the headliner of the RB section in this column last weekend and earns that honor again for Week 16. With Bhayshul Tuten sidelined due to a finger injury, Etienne should dominate the ground attack while giving way to LeQuint Allen in obvious passing situations.

Over the last two games, with Tuten's playing time curtailed, Etienne has scored 21.2 and 31.5 fantasy points. Since the Jaguars' Week 8 bye, Etienne has averaged 18.3 points per game—the sixth-most in fantasy football.

The Broncos are a tough overall matchup for Jacksonville, but the run defense isn't unbeatable (-1.1 PPG fantasy boost). This should be a close game between two AFC playoff teams, with Denver favored by three points.  

Projection Model:

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 23.6
• Median: 14.9
• Floor: 11.0

Etienne is my RB8 in Week 16. 

RB Rapid Fire: Week 16 Rankings Upgrades & Pending News

• TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots: After a massive 31-point eruption, Henderson is ascending the ranks. On the one hand, I am happy to push the rookie up the board, given his extraordinary ceiling. On the other hand, he still has some boom-bust to his game. The Patriots have given Rhamondre Stevenson more snaps every game since his return (31%, 60%, 67%). However, Henderson has led the team in rushing attempts in two out of three games (67%, 44%, 61%). Essentially, we have a homerun hitter who should see 15 to 18 opportunities. The Ravens' defense has been much stronger over the last month, holding opposing rushing attacks to a -3.1 fantasy boost. Henderson is a borderline RB1. He projects for 13.7 points with a 21.8 Xfinity Best ceiling.   
   
• Woody Marks | Texans: Marks left last week's game ahead of halftime due to an ankle injury but is trending toward playing in Week 16. From Week 10 to 14, Marks accounted for 72% of the snaps and 73% of the rushing attempts. This week, he faces a Raiders defense that appears to be packing up for the offseason. Las Vegas has boosted opposing rushing attacks by 9.6 PPG over the last month—the most in the NFL. Marks is a mid-range RB2 and carries a 20.1-point Xfinity Best ceiling if healthy. 
   
• Rico Dowdle | Panthers: Coming out of the bye week, the Panthers opted for Dowdle as the RB1, leading to 12.4 fantasy points. It wasn't the workload we saw earlier in the year, but he led the team with a 59% snap share and 64% attempt share. He split the passing-down work with Chuba Hubbard. Both backs had a 45% route participation rate and 5% target share. Dowdle projects for 13.3 points with a 21.6 Xfinity Best ceiling. He is a low-end RB2 against Tampa Bay. 
   
• Tyrone Tracy | Giants: Tracy has operated as the clear-cut RB in two of four games under Mike Kafka, including Week 15. Over the four games, Tracy has averaged 15.7 points with a 64% snap share, 54% rush share and 10% target share. I am not as confident as my fellow rankers, but Tracy deserves low-end RB2 treatment. He has an Xfinity Best ceiling of 18.1 points.  
   
• Kenneth Gainwell | Steelers: Over the last four games, Gainwell has turned into a key cog of the Pittsburgh passing attack with a 20% target share. His 5.3 targets per game rank second behind DK Metcalf. Over that span, Gainwell has averaged 15.1 points per game, also accounting for eight carries per contest. He is highly involved in high-leverage situations, including 53% of the short-yardage snaps and 100% of the two-minute offense. Gainwell is a borderline RB2 who projects for 12.7 points with a 20.8 Xfinity Best ceiling.

Jameson Williams enters the top-12 WRs in Week 16.

In five games without Sam LaPorta, Williams has a 24% target share. That has led to 7.4 targets and 92.4 air yards per contest. He has averaged 18.1 points per game with an 82 Utilization Score.

Detroit has the No. 1 team total on the slate at 28.3 points, and Freedman's NFL Betting Game Model likes it even more (30).

The Steelers have been an above-average matchup, providing a 1.8-point fantasy boost to opposite WR units.

Projection Model:

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 23.3
• Median: 14.8
• Floor: 10.9

Williams is a top-10 WR option against Pittsburgh.

WR Rapid Fire: Week 16 Rankings Upgrades & Pending News

• Michael Wilson | Cardinals: Wilson has delivered 27.3 PPG in games without Marvin Harrison Jr. Over that span, he has averaged 14.8 targets and 181 air yards. Last week, he managed 16.4 points against the vaunted Broncos defense. Now, he gets the Falcons, who have conceded the No. 5 fantasy boost (+4.0) to WR units. Wilson is a mid-range WR1 if Harrison is out. If Harrison is back, Wilson is a low-end WR2. Without Harrison, he projects for 17.4 points with a 25.0 Xfinity Best ceiling.
   
• Mike Evans | Buccaneers: Evans has averaged 9.3 targets and 129 air yards in four healthy games this season. In Week 15, he returned to action with 10 targets and 176 air yards plus an endzone look. He finished the day with 19.2 points and an 88 Utilization Score. Evans projects for 13.1 points with a 20.1 Xfinity Best ceiling. He is a high-end WR2 against the Panthers.
   
• DK Metcalf | Steelers: Metcalf is a boom-bust player, but he is in a favorable position in Week 16 against the Lions. He leads Pittsburgh with a 23% target share and 43% air yards share. Unfortunately, the team's run-balanced offense (-1% DBOE) and slow pace (29th in neutral play clock) have curtailed the raw numbers to 6.4 targets and 73 air yards. The Steelers should be forced to throw more as seven-point underdogs. Detroit has coughed up the second-largest fantasy boost to WR rooms at 5.6 PPG. Metcalf projects for 12.6 points with a 19.5 Xfinity Best ceiling. He is a mid-range WR2.  
   
• Jauan Jennings | 49ers: Over the last four games, Jennings has a 23% target share and 14.3 fantasy points per game. His 89% route participation rate ranks first among WRs on the team and is battling George Kittle as one of the top two options not named Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco has the fifth-highest team total (25.5), and the Colts have sanctioned the No. 4 fantasy boost to WR corps at 4.8 points per game. Jennings projects for 12.5 points with a 19.3-point Xfinity Best ceiling. He is a mid-range WR2.
   
• Jayden Reed | Packers: Christian Watson (chest/shoulder) is questionable for Week 16 in a huge game against the Bears. Since returning to the lineup, Reed has played a part-time role from the slot, but leads the team with five targets per game. He has also been involved on the ground with two rushing attempts. The third-year WR has averaged 9.9 fantasy points. The Packers offer a healthy team total of 24 points, and the Bears have green-lighted the No. 3 boost to WR units at 4.8 PPG. Reed projects for 10.6 points and a sneaky 18.1-point Xfinity Best ceiling without Watson. He is a mid-range WR3 if Watson can't play, but would drop to WR4 territory if Watson is active.

TE Rapid Fire: Week 16 Rankings Upgrades & Pending News

• Kyle Pitts | Falcons: Drake London is day-to-day with his PCL injury but has a shot to return in Week 16. In four games without London, Pitts has averaged 20.1 fantasy points with a 29% target share and 74 air yards per contest. Without London, Pitts projects for 15.0 points with a 21.5 Xfinity Best ceiling, making him a top-three TE. If London plays, he is a mid-range TE1 against the fifth-best TE matchup. The Cardinals have boosted opposing TE units by 2.1 points per game.
   
• Harold Fannin Jr. | Browns: Since moving into a starting role in Week 12, Fannin has averaged 14.3 points with an 89 Utilization Score. Over that four-game span, he has an insane 33% target share and 53 air yards per game. He has accounted for half the endzone looks. The Bills have been the hardest matchup for TEs (-3.9 fantasy boost). Fannin projects for 12.8 points with an 18.9 Xfinity Best ceiling—his role keeps him inside the top-six TEs despite a struggling offense and tough matchup.
   
• Darren Waller | Dolphins: Waller delivered 25.6 fantasy points on a 31% target share in Week 15. Now he faces the Bengals, who have endorsed the No. 1 boost to the TE position (8.0 PPG). Unfortunately, we have a massive question mark at QB for the Dolphins. Quinn Ewers will start in Week 16. I have Ewers projected for 182 passing yards, slightly less than the betting markets (193). But if we are being real, the floor could be far worse—a sub-150-yard passing performance is within the range of outcomes. Could Ewers surprise in a positive way? Sure, but the odds aren't high. Waller is a borderline TE1.

Fallers In My Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

• Matthew Stafford | QB | Rams: Stafford could be without Davante Adams (hamstring) and faces a tough matchup in the Seahawks. Seattle has allowed only 197 passing yards per game. They have held opponents 34 yards below their average. Oddsmakers also see this as a tough spot for Stafford. The Rams 21.5-point team total is much lower than their usual mark. Additionally, we have a chance for rain and sustained 20 mph winds. Stafford has ranked in my top three for the last two weeks. This week, he is my QB10.
   
• Ashton Jeanty | RB | Raiders: The Raiders have a remarkably low team total of 11.5 points against the Broncos. That makes it very hard to project much upside for Jeanty, given how important TDs are to hitting ceilings. In addition to the low total, Jeanty has handled less of the pass-down work over the last two games, and the Texans are the seventh-hardest matchup for RBs (-3.0 fantasy boost). Jeanty falls to RB3 territory.
   
• Jaylen Waddle | WR | Dolphins: The outlook for Waddle takes a hit with the switch to Ewers. Waddle projects for 10.7 points with a 16.4 Xfinity Best ceiling. That makes him a WR3 option rather than a WR2.
   
• Indianapolis | ALL | Colts: The oddsmakers have the Colts' team total at 20 points in a home game against a banged-up 49ers defense. With Philip Rivers taking over the starting QB role, gone are the days of 25-plus-point team totals. The lack of expected points has a ripple effect on the entire offense. Jonathan Taylor falls out of the top three to RB9. Michael Pittman Jr. tumbles to high-end WR4 status. Alec Pierce is a WR5 that should not be in starting lineups.

Sicko Starts In My Week 16 Rankings For Fantasy Football

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers who are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup, but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

We are looking for players with a rostership under 50% who aren't in many starting lineups.

Let's go, you sickos.

• Week 1: Daniel Jones (hit), Jerome Ford (miss), Rashod Bateman (miss), Hunter Henry (hit)
• Week 2: Trevor Lawrence (hit), Tyrone Tracy Jr. (miss), Kayshon Boutte (hit), Juwan Johnson (hit)
• Week 3: Tyrod Taylor (hit), Tyler Allgeier (miss), Wan'Dale Robinson (miss), Cole Kmet (hit)
• Week 4: Jaxson Dart (hit), TreVeyon Henderson (hit), Troy Franklin (hit), Cade Otton (miss)
• Week 5: Jaxson Dart (hit), Rhamondre Stevenson (hit), Malik Washington (miss), Mason Taylor (hit)
• Week 6: Trevor Lawrence (hit), Kimani Vidal (hit), Isiah Bond (miss), Mason Taylor (miss)
• Week 7: C.J. Stroud (miss), Kendre Miller (injury), Tez Johson (hit), Oronde Gadsden II (hit)
• Week 8: Joe Flacco (hit), Kyle Monangai (miss), Troy Franklin (hit), Colston Loveland (miss)
• Week 9: J.J. McCarthy (hit), Brashard Smith (miss), Chimere Dike (miss), Colston Loveland (hit)
• Week 10: J.J. McCarthy (miss), Devin Singletary (miss), Darius Slayton (hit), Luke Musgrave (miss)
• Week 11: Aaron Rodgers (inj), Emanuel Wilson (hit), Tez Johnson (miss), Theo Johnson (miss)
• Week 12: Jacoby Brissett (hit), Brian Robinson Jr. (miss), Luther Burden (miss), Dalton Schultz (miss)
• Week 13: Tyler Shough (hit), Keaton Mitchell (hit), Jayden Higgins (hit), Brenton Strange (hit)
• Week 14: Tyrod Taylor (inj), Blake Corum (oh baby), Isaac TeSlaa (hit), Harold Fannin Jr. (oh baby)
• Week 15: Marcus Mariota (miss), Devin Singletary (miss), Jayden Higgins (miss), Mike Gesicki (miss)   

J.J. McCarthy | QB | Vikings

McCarthy is rostered in 39% of Yahoo leagues and is in 13% of starting lineups.

McCarthy has taken advantage of plus matchups against the Commanders and Cowboys, delivering 20.4 and 24.5 fantasy points over the last two games. In Week 16, he gets another solid matchup against the Giants (1.7 PPG fantasy boost).

The Vikings have a respectable 23.8 team total, according to oddsmakers. They are three-point favorites over the Giants.

Projection Model:

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 18.5
• Median: 13.4
• Floor: 10.4

McCarthy is a low-end QB2 with low-end QB1 upside in Week 16.

Michael Carter | RB | Cardinals

Carter is rostered in 27% of leagues and in less than 6% of lineups.

With Bam Knight injured, Carter dominated the Cardinals' backfield in Week 15. He handled 79% of the snaps, 70% of attempts, and posted an 11% target share on a 72% route participation rate. He finished the day with 13.4 points and an 81 Utilization Score against the Broncos.

It was Emari Demercado's first game back from a high-ankle sprain. So, we could see more of a split if Demercado's health was a factor in his limited role. Still, if we have to place a chip on a Cardinal this weekend, Carter is the guy. He has averaged 15.3 points in two games in a full-time role this season. 

Projection Model:

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 20.8
• Median: 12.5
• Floor: 9.1

Carter is a high-end RB3 with low-end RB1 upside if he remains in a full-time role.

Adonai Mitchell | WR | Jets

Mitchell is rostered in 17% of Yahoo leagues and is in only 4% of starting lineups.  

Brady Cook will start again for the Jets, which is a concern. However, finding WRs without a 50% rostership that project for targets isn't easy in Week 16.

Over four games as the Jets starter, Mitchell has averaged 12.8 fantasy points with a 77 Utilization Score. Over that span, he has a 27% target share with 125 air yards per game. Those are WR1-worthy numbers based on historical WR1 profiles.

Projection Model:

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 16.6
• Median: 10.4
• Floor: 7.6

Mitchell is a boom-bust WR3 against the Saints. He offers WR2 upside with a WR4 floor. 

Colby Parkinson | TE | Rams

Parkinson is rostered in 22% of Yahoo leagues and starts in 10% of lineups.

Tyler Higbee won't return in Week 16, leaving Parkinson to enjoy his recently improved role for at least one more week. Over the last two games, Parkinson has a 67% route participation rate with an 18% target share. He has delivered 18.4 fantasy points per game with a 79 Utilization Score.

With Davante Adams (hamstring) unlikely to suit up, Parkinson could be the No. 2 target for Stafford against the Seahawks.

Projection Model: 

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 15.5
• Median: 10
• Floor: 7.3

Parkinson is my TE8 in Week 16.

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