We've reached the semi-finals of the fantasy football playoffs, making analyzing every matchup all the more important. With that being said, let's get into the Week 16 WR/CB matchups to target and avoid with your season on the line.

WR Matchups To Target In Week 16

Jauan Jennings vs Colts

To be honest, I wouldn’t necessarily recommend a contextualized usage profile like Jauan Jennings’ after looking at his last month of action. 

Most 49ers’ fans hoped this would happen at some point. Not specifically Jennings going from the team’s WR1 at a 25% target rate with Brock Purdy back under center to an 18% share on Sunday, but the ascension of Ricky Pearsall. San Francisco’s second-year receiver was finally flashing some of the same talent we saw toward the backend of ’24. Accordingly, Jennings ran fewer routes from the slot, essentially operating as a perimeter threat. However, his targets weren’t empty-calorie looks.

Jennings earned 50.0% of the red-zone pass attempts. In fact, four of his five targets on the day came when the 49ers were in scoring position. Luckily, half of his snags in this area of the field turned into a score. And it’d be fair to say we can’t count on receivers getting into the end zone every week, but the soon-to-be free agent has some added motivation.

We’ve been tracking 2025 NFL contract incentives, and as the 49ers continue to make their case for the postseason, their needs align with Jennings’ financial aspirations. Plus, Pearsall’s PCL re-aggravation should mean more opportunities for the veteran. And after watching multiple WR1s turn in double-digit PPR-point outings against the Colts (Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 18.3, Jakobi Meyers – 14.8, Nico Collins – 14.8, Rashee Rice – 24.1), Jennings has top-12 upside in Week 16.

Mike Evans vs Panthers

Admittedly, we’re working off a one-game sample from Mike Evans. But you couldn’t ask for a better return to action from the future Hall of Famer. 

Evans reasserted himself as the WR1 with ten targets. He’s had two games with double-digit targets across the six that he’s played. And after seeing Evans come down with the ball on multiple timing routes to the outside, you could see where some of the vertical element to the Bucs’ passing game was missing. Coincidentally, that’s where teams have been getting over on the Panthers over the last month. 

• Week 15: Chris Olave, 9-85-1 (stat line), 14.3 (air yards per target)
• Week 14: Davante Adams, 5-58-2, 12.8
• Week 13: Jauan Jennings, 7-41-1, 9.3
• Week 12: Drake London, 9-119-0, 10.7

Olave averaged 16.5 yards per reception on throws of ten air yards or more on Sunday. The Rams WRs totaled 129 yards on their intermediate tosses from Matthew Stafford. And Drake London got most of the way to that same mark on his own (93) with Michael Penix throwing him the ball. With a hyped up Baker Mayfield slinging the ball to Evans to retake control of the NFC South, Evans should be a top-12 option for the semi-finals. 

Sneaky WR Matchups To Target In Week 16

Khalil Shakir vs Browns

Another note on contract incentives, specific to Khalil Shakir, from LaMarca:

“Shakir hasn’t been quite as good for the Bills this year as he was in 2024-25, but he’s still been the team’s best receiver overall. He has a few different escalators in play down the stretch:

• Receiving Yards: 650; Bonuses at 900, 1,000, 1,100 and 1,200
• Receptions: 62; Bonuses at 80, 90, 100 and 110
• Receiving Touchdowns: Four; Bonuses at five, six, eight and 10”

I don’t see Shakir catching 18 balls or racking up 250 yards all in one game. But he can sure make a dent in either total on Sunday.

Buffalo’s slot man is back into his natural role as the “pass-catcher 1B” in the passing game. I say pass-catcher because it’s not like there’s a wide receiver ahead of him. The Bills have scored 30-plus points in two straight weeks, and Keon Coleman has three targets between them. The focus has shifted to TEs Dawson Knox (18% target rate) and Dalton Kincaid (25%), with the TE duo leading the way with eight attempts thrown their way in Week 15. However, Josh Allen is still looking for his top WR when it matters.

• Obvious Passing Situations (last six games): 29.1%, first
• Red-Zone Target Rate: 19.4%, second
• QB Pressured: 19.1%, second 

Shakir has been responsible for the most receiving first downs (14) since the team’s bye. And Allen has to create out of structure; only Knox has more targets. Myles Garrett will certainly keep Allen moving in and out of the pocket. But the Browns’ slot coverage has given up the eighth-highest passer rating to slot receivers and the fourth-most TDs over the last two months. Finding a reliable pass catcher of Allen’s is tough to do on a weekly basis. But against the Browns, Shakir is an under-the-radar option for Week 16.

Jayden Reed vs Bears

I can guess what you’re thinking. You’re assuming my analysis will start and end with Christian Watson’s injury, which means that Jayden Reed will pick up some more volume by default. But, to be honest, I’m not 100% sold on that idea, at least on its face. 

Most folks tend to look at how the offense instantly reacts as a sign of what’s to come later. But in this case, it was Matthew Golden on top with a 21.4% target share after Watson left the game. And the rookie picked up a couple of key first downs, one leading to a field goal, which put them within a point of the Broncos. So, while I get even a limited Watson should force a redistribution of the targets, it doesn’t necessarily mean Reed will benefit. But what I do think will happen is a shift in how Jordan Love operates.

• (Week 15) Passing aDOT: 10.1 (before Watson injury), 10.5 (after Watson injury)
• Passing Success Rate: 62.5%, 16.7%
• EPA per Dropback: 0.51, -0.23

Love kept trying the same throws even after Watson got hurt, but the results were, let’s say, different. Unsurprisingly, Bo Melton, Dontayvion Wicks and Chris Brooks aren’t as reliable as Watson. Without a credible downfield threat, HC Matt LaFleur should have Love attack the middle of the field on quick-game concepts. Especially with one of their best OL hurt, minimizing Love’s time to throw and the Bears’ pass rush would be an optimal approach to the NFC North rematch. And if there’s anywhere you can attack Chicago’s secondary, it’s on the inside.

• Yards per Game (Allowed to Slot WRs since Week 6): sixth-most
• Explosive Play Rate: sixth-highest
• PPR PPG: second-most

The Bears just let speedy Isaiah Bond run by them for two explosive plays, and both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had big gains against Chicago on Black Friday. So Love can still show off his arm and throw off his back foot a few times. But the down-to-down success will revolve around not only how fast he can get the ball out, but if he can get it to his best healthy receiver, and that’s Jayden Reed.

WR Matchup To Avoid In Week 16

Deebo Samuel vs Eagles

Note: As always, “avoid” doesn’t mean “sit.” It implies that the matchups or trends around a player’s usage indicate we should lower our expectations regarding their projected output.

OC Kliff Kingsbury came into Week 15 with the right game plan. The Giants had multiple rotational players from their run defense out or hobbled due to injuries. Consequently, Marcus Mariota had the fewest pass attempts of any Commanders’ starter all season. And this weekend sets up similarly.

Jalen Carter for the Eagles has yet to practice, which, for any team other than the Raiders, would spark some interest in designing a run game to exploit a gap in Philadelphia’s defense. Meanwhile, Samuel will be dealing with the opposing coverage that’s stifling receivers of every make and model since their bye.

• Passing Yards Allowed per Game (to WRs): 108.8, seventh-fewest
• Completion Percentage: 48.1%, second-lowest
• Success Rate: 46.3%, 12th-lowest

Not only are the Eagles putting enemy QBs in a bind (third-highest pressure rate), they’re getting home on 9.7% of their attempts (fifth-best). They’ve forced at least one turnover in five straight games. Just four passers have crossed 250 yards against them. With the potential for limited and low-quality volume, Samuel should be someone we lower expectations for in Week 16.

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