
Ian Hartitz breaks down the biggest fantasy football storylines for Week 3, from injury fallout to surprising performances to watch for, and more.

And just like that: Week 3 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!
Every week I will be going through 10 key fantasy football storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Passing production might generally be down across the league to start the season, but don't tell that to Derek Carr or Sam Darnold, who have both arguably played the best football of their respective careers through two weeks of 2024.
In Carr's case: We're literally talking about the league's most efficient signal-caller at the moment based on pretty much any meaningful advanced metric out there:
Carr among 32 QBs with 30-plus dropbacks this season:
Hell, the artist formerly known as Captain Checkdown has even become one of the most downfield-oriented gunslingers in the league. Not only does Carr's 9.2-yard average target depth rank sixth, but his 2.3% check-down rate is the lowest mark in the NFL and a far cry from his annual top-eight numbers.
And yet, the fantasy QB2 hasn't even reached his true ceiling considering the Saints' 30-3 and 35-16 halftime leads haven't forced the offense to keep their collective foot on the gas.
Overall, the Saints' league-low 37.3% pass-play rate is a full 5.6% lower than the next-most run-heavy offense (Chargers) and reflects the reality that things could really get grooving inside this New Orleans passing game should a worthy opponent emerge—something that certainly seems to be on the table for next Sunday's matchup against the Eagles' middling secondary.
And then there's Darnold, who continues to make a few throws per week that remind everyone why he was the 2018 NFL Draft's No. 3 overall pick once upon a time. Sure, the 97-yard BOMB to Justin Jefferson was cool and all, but how about this clutch back shoulder dime down the seam to Jalen Nailor without any of the Vikings' top-three pass-catchers on the field?
HC Kevin O'Connell deserves a lot of credit for getting so much production out of yet another QB who was largely left for dead by the rest of the league. Clearly having the best WR alive also helps; just realize Darnold has really cooked when the play has unfolded as the Vikings planned.
Overall, 56% of Darnold's dropbacks have resulted in a pass attempt to his first read (13th), and he's responded with a league-best 11 yards per attempt on those throws. On throws that have involved getting to his 2nd read or check down? Darnold ranks just 14th in yards per attempt (7.55) and his 3.45-yard dropoff relative to first-read pass attempts is the fifth-highest mark in the league.
Up next for Darnold and company is a date with Will Anderson and the Texans, who made life absolutely miserable for Caleb Williams last Sunday night. It'll be tough to raise the 27-year-old veteran too far up the ranks should Jefferson (quad) wind up sitting out; just realize the early returns on the 2024 Darnold experience have been far better than anything else we've seen out of him during the previous six seasons.
Wouldn't it be funny if ANOTHER veteran QB largely considered to be a goner suddenly turned the tides of their entire organization?
The Bryce Young experience is officially over, as Andy Dalton will start in Week 3 and seemingly beyond for the 0-2 Panthers.
It's hard to overstate how much of an upgrade this could wind up being for the likes of Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and Xavier Legette. Young was objectively the NFL's worst QB over the past 20 weeks of regular season action.
Young among 31 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023-24 seasons:
Nobody should be expecting Dalton to flirt with elite-level efficiency against a Bengals defense that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards (272) this season, but the 36-year-old veteran did manage to rack up 361 yards and a pair of scores on the back of a whopping 58 pass attempts during his lone start in 2023.
Reminder: Johnson has worked as ESPN's No. 1 separator in terms of "Open Score" since entering the league, Thielen is just one season removed from catching 103 passes for 1,014 yards, and Legette is literally one of the freakier athletes to ever play the position. Throw in a defense that looks incapable of stopping just about anyone, and you have the recipe for some fantasy-friendly trailing game scripts for the league's 31st-ranked scoring offense.
What a time to be a Panthers fan. Let's keep rolling with some way-too-early takeaways after just 120 minutes of football.
Yes, it's been two weeks.
Also yes, it's been two weeks!
Plenty more will change throughout the rest of the long and winding NFL season, but let's take a moment to check our priors and see who has been booming and busting relative to their preseason ESPN ADP this season. Note that I didn't include players who have been underperforming due to injuries because that's not cool, man.
Players who have been BOOMING thus far:
It's reasonable to consider selling high on most of these guys; just don't give the dudes away. FantasyCalc.com is a cool website that gives actual recent trades involving some of these players that you can lean on for starting points.
On the other side of things, these players have unfortunately been BUSTING through two weeks of action:
Some of these guys like Kelce and Olave have still had pretty great underlying utilization and qualify as quality buy-low candidates, while others like White, Cooper, and LaPorta simply haven't made the most out of their opportunities and are facing more touch competition than expected to start the season.
This isn't to suggest they can't turn things around, but at a minimum expectations should probably be lowered at this point just based on the usage we've seen through two weeks.
Speaking of changing usage …
Last week we took the time to look at every backfield across the NFL in terms of their snap rate, carries, and targets. You can once again find that whole chart right here, but we'll just focus on a handful of situations that changed considerably from Week 1 to Week 2.
Was it something Jerome Ford said?: It looked like Ford was the clear lead back in Cleveland after Week 1, but Week 2 saw him finish with half as many carries as D'Onta Foreman (14 vs. 7) on a dismal 42% snap rate. The expected absence of Pierre Strong (hamstring) should shrink this committee down to two for the time being; either way, it's tough to be overly optimistic about any RB behind the Browns' banged-up offensive line—especially ahead of a matchup with Dexter Lawrence and company.
Zack Moss, running back, THE running back, y'all: Moss has topped Chase Brown in snap rate (74% vs. 25%), carries (21 vs. 7), and targets (5 vs. 3) this season, yet hasn't enjoyed elite RB production due to the Bengals offense not quite catching its collective stride against the Patriots and Chiefs. Well, better times should be on the way in a pair of back-to-back appetizing matchups against the Commanders and Panthers—the time to buy low on Moss is MEOW in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes.
Um, what the hell, Colts?: Alleged workhorse RB Jonathan Taylor played a robust 95% of the offense's snaps in Week 1 … and 49% in Week 2. The man had 16 combined carries and targets on just 26 total snaps and didn't play a single snap in the 4th quarter because "we were throwing the football" per head coach Shane Steichen. Note that Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson each have caught just seven passes during their respective careers; it's not like either is even a Nyheim Hines-level receiver. Taylor should still push for 20 combined carries and targets more weeks than not; just realize this sort of game-script-dependent usage presents a troubling floor in full-PPR formats considering how meh the Colts have looked overall on offense this season.
Jaylen Warren is BACK (kinda): Warren had as many combined carries and targets as Cordarrelle Patterson (4) in Week 1 and worked well behind bell-cow Najee Harris. However, that seemed to be more so due to Warren's return from a preseason hamstring injury than anything, as his Week 2 snaps (48% vs. 45%) and opportunities (19 vs. 11) were far closer to Harris this time around. It might take a negative game script for Warren to actually see more usage than Harris, but at worst the talented third-year remains one of the better handcuffs in fantasy football. Speaking of …
Babe, get the handcuffs out: The likes of Trey Benson, Braelon Allen, and Ray Davis each further solidified their standing as the next man up inside their respective backfields. While there could be an additional party splitting things up just a bit more than fantasy managers might prefer, each of these rookies is theoretically one injury away from immediately slotting in as an upside RB2 in fantasy land.
Of course, some RBs are simply better than others at making the most out of their opportunities.
This chart provides the average yards after contact and missed tackles forced from every RB through two weeks of action (min. 10 carries).
Some ballers who deserve some praise:
And some veterans who perhaps deserve some slander:
Gotta love some good old-fashioned RB discourse, but hey, just because someone wasn't great in Weeks 1 and 2 doesn't mean the tide couldn't turn in Week 3. Right? RIGHT? Looking for a friend …
Week 1's 3-26-1 stat line was only passable because the rest of the position achieved historical levels of nothing, while Monday night's 3-20-0 receiving line (again) featured Pitts as little more than an afterthought in Kirk Cousins' pecking order.
Fantasy managers probably expected Pitts to finish behind Drake London in targets. Maybe Darnell Mooney, too. But fifth? On his own team? In this economy?
Falcons targets and air yards in Weeks 1-2:
Pitts' 6.3-yard average target depth is easily a career-low mark this season; his previous low was 11.2 as a rookie. Give him credit for already forcing three missed tackles—more than he had in all of 2023 (2)—but we're currently looking at the TE24 in targets per route run (11.8%) among 28 qualified players.
Now, Lions TE Sam LaPorta (9.6%) actually ranks dead last in that latter stat; Pitts is not the only "elite" TE to start slow, and it's hardly a given that the Falcons will continue to ignore the 23-year-old former No. 4 overall pick. Next week sure would be a good time to start against a Chiefs defense that has surrendered back-to-back big games to Isaiah Likely (9-111-1) and Mike Gesicki (7-91-0). I'm not throwing the towel in on Pitts as a top-six TE YET, but man, it's not looking good.
Of course, sometimes bad performances from skill-position players aren't exactly their fault. It could be more so because of coaching, the QB, or hell, even the offensive line …
Four offensive lines rank inside the top 10 in both pressure rate allowed and yards before contact per carry this season. There's a pretty good chance that we're looking at #good units here, or at a minimum they should be applauded for their performance through two weeks:
On the other side of things, four offensive lines rank among the league's bottom-10 units in both pressure rate and yards before contact per carry:
Perhaps these groups will regress one way or another as the season goes on, but for now, their performance plays a large part in determining which offenses will really be able to put together some boom performances. After all, major mismatches at the line of scrimmage are a helluva drug in fantasy football land.
Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, “Offense ranks x, defense ranks y.”
The data only includes Week 1-2 numbers, so take some of the analysis with a bit of a grain of salt. Things will get clearer as we get more and more 2024 info.
Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.
I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups ignores the reality that relatively *bad* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.
With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:
Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could out-perform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out–they wouldn't be bold otherwise–but will that stop me? Hell no!
Without further adieu: Let's get weird.
Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard
Most are assuming the newfound presence of Andy Dalton under center will immediately result in relatively higher-end returns for the involved WRs, but remember, Dalton fed Panthers RBs a whopping 12 targets during his 60 minutes under center last season.
While Hubbard's touch lead over Miles Sanders is "just" 20 to 15 on the season, it's a more respectable 17 to 9 when looking at the first three quarters AKA before the Panthers were completely getting blown out.
Give me 100-plus total yards and a trip to the end zone for Hubbard against a Raiders defense that has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs this season.
49ers QB Brock Purdy
One of the biggest early-season takeaways is the predictable reality that the post-Aaron Donald Rams defense sucks balls, for lack of a better term.
The league's 31st-ranked scoring defense has looked lost for a better portion of the first two weeks, ranking among the league's bottom-three defenses in both EPA allowed per dropback (+0.337, 30th) and per rush (+0.124, 30th).
I like Purdy's chances of rebounding from last week's down performance in a major way—300-plus yards and not one, not two, not three, but four scores through the air for Mr. Relevant.
Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers
It's been the Brock Bowers and Davante Adams show so far for Las Vegas, but don't forget about the second WR in town. Meyers remains a gifted route-runner due for a quality performance—so why not one against a Panthers secondary that ranks a lowly 27th in EPA allowed per dropback this season?
I'll take Meyers going for 8-105-1 as a contrarian pick inside a matchup that most expect the Raiders to flourish in.
Players highlighted last week and results: Keenan Allen (DNP), Gus Edwards (59-scoreless yards), Jalen McMillan (21-scoreless yards). "The process was right," the man cried out as his wife and kids packed their final belongings into the car and drove off into the night.



