It is time to set our fantasy lineups for Week 4, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the Week 4 fantasy football rankings to help you make those start-sit decisions.

Risers In The Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings

Below are some of the biggest risers in my Week 4 rankings, sorted positionally.

Jordan Love is a top-10 option in a great matchup in Week 4.

Love hasn't been a steady fantasy asset to this point with QB18 (15.9 points), QB13 (20.9), and QB26 (12.1) finishes. 

Week 3 was tough against a rabid Browns defense. Only 81% of Love's dropbacks turned into pass attempts. He scrambled on 3% of dropbacks and was sacked 16% of the time.

This weekend, he gets a much easier matchup against the Cowboys, who allow the most passing yards per game (300), boosting opponents by 77 yards per game. Dallas allows the second-most passing TDs per contest (2.3), good for a 0.9 boost. It doesn't get better than facing the Cowboys.

• Cowboys QB DvP (defense versus position): No. 1 boost (9.1 PPG)

Nerd Note: DvP is an opponent-adjusted metric that tells you how much a defense has allowed to opposing QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs at the team level. So, if a defense has faced three RB rooms that averaged 15 points per game, but gave up 20 points per game, it would be a +5.0  boost. If they gave 10 points in those contests, it would be -5.0.

NFL oddsmakers are on the same page, and Matthew Freedman's NFL Betting Game Model is in LOVE with the Packers in Week 4.

• NFL Betting Game Model team total: 28.1 (2nd)

Perhaps my nightmares from the 2023 home playoff game against Green Bay, where Love sliced and diced Dallas for 272 yards and three touchdowns, are influencing me, but I agree with Freedman and his model.

Love projects as the QB12 in our projection model. His ceiling isn't as high as that of some players around him due to his limited involvement on the ground. But it is still robust.

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 27.7 (16th)
• Median: 17.9 (12th)
• Floor: 10.4 (9th)

Love UPGRADES to QB10 in Week 4 against the Cowboys. Waz and Ian are even more bullish.

QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Justin Herbert | Chargers: Herbert projects as the QB5 (19.5) and offers a 31.7 Xfinity best ceiling (7th). The Chargers are tied for No. 1 in dropback rate over expected (DBOE) at 7%, and Herbert has been dealing, averaging 20.8 fantasy points. The Bolts carry a top-10 team total, and the Giants have powered a 34-yard per game boost to opposing signal callers. Herbert is my QB4 in Week 4.
   
• Justin Fields | Jets: Fields is recovering from a concussion that kept him out of Week 3. While we will always have concerns about Fields' inconsistencies as a passer, he remains one of the best rushing options in the NFL, which enables a 31.8 Xfinity best ceiling (6th). The Dolphins have licensed the eighth-highest boost to QBs over the first three games. Fields is my QB13, but offers top-six upside if you need it.

Omarion Hampton climbs into top-12 RB territory against the Giants.

Hampton posted an elite 96 Utilization Score in Week 3 with Najee Harris exiting early due to a season-ending Achilles injury. He accounted for 79% of the snaps, 70% of rushing attempts, and posted a season-high 15% target share on a 60% route participation rate.

Hampton busted in Week 1 with a similar role, so moving him this high this quickly doesn't come without risk. The Chargers are a pass-first unit with the No. 2 DBOE (7%), which can shrink the opportunity pie. However, the Giants have been hammered by opposing running backs for 153 yards per game.

• Giants RB DvP: 6.1 PPG boost (1st)

The Chargers also carry a strong team total, which opens the door for a multi-touchdown performance should Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman decide to take advantage of the mismatch on the ground.

• NFL Betting Game Model team total: 24.75 (10th)

The bottom line is that Hampton projects well across all ceiling, median, and floor outlooks.

• Xfinity Best ceiling: 30.6 (10th)
• Median: 14.5 (10th)
• Floor: 6.9 (10th)

Hampton UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory, and I am slightly lower than some of our other rankers.

Cam Skattebo projects as a mid-range RB2 but offers RB1 upside in Week 4.

With Tyrone Tracy sidelined with a shoulder injury, Skattebo will get another opportunity to shine against the Chargers. In Week 3, after Tracy exited early, the rookie posted 24.1 fantasy points. He handled 70% of snaps, 57% of attempts, and garnered a 27% target share on a 66% route participation after Tracy's injury.

The Chargers have been the third-hardest matchup for opposing backfields, holding opponents 3.8 points below their season average. While that isn't ideal, Skattebo offers upside in the rushing TD department and receiving game—massive pillars for high-end fantasy production.

The projection model is aware of this, providing Skattebo with a strong median and a substantial ceiling.

• Xfinity Best ceiling: 29.2 (12th)
• Median: 12.8 (16th)
• Floor: 6.0 (16th)

Skattebo UPGRADES to high-end RB2 territory and is a must-start on most rosters.

RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Josh Jacobs | Packers: If you want to buy Jacobs, now is the time. The Packers are seven-point road favorites, and Dallas has allowed the seventh-best boost to opposing backfields (2.5 PPG). The Packers RB1 is due for a big game. He is averaging 13.6 points, but has an 82 Utilization Score. His historical comps have averaged 15.8 points per contest. Jacobs carries the No. 3 Xfinity Best ceiling with 36.1 points and offers the No. 2 median projection at 17.3 points. Jacobs is a SMASH play as a mid-range RB1 and could be the top back on the Week 4 slate.
   
• Trey Benson | Cardinals: Benson will assume the RB1 role with James Conner out for the season. The second-year back was already coming on strong, taking over a larger role in the passing game ahead of Week 3. We could see Emari DeMercado take on some of the receiving work, but we could also see Benson in a bell cow role against the Seahawks. Benson offers the No. 14 median projection (13.1) and the No. 13 Xfinity Best ceiling at 29.1 points. Benson UPGRADES to high-end RB2 territory.
   
• Jaylen Warren | Steelers: Stanning for an Arthur Smith RB. What could go wrong, y'all? We could get the old rug pull, but with the disappearance of Kaleb Johnson after Week 1, Warren has handled 70% and 81% of the rushing attempts over the last two games. He ranks No. 7 at the position in target share (15%). We are finally seeing Warren in the role we have dreamed of for two years—hopefully it lasts. He offers the No. 18 median projection (12.3) with a 27.7 Xfinity Best ceiling (19th). Warren UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status against the Vikings.
   
• Quinshon Judkins | Browns: Judkins took over the Browns' rushing attack against the Packers, bogarting 95% of the attempts. The Browns are 11.3-point dogs against the Lions in the NFL Betting Game Model, which makes this a slightly tricky spot for Judkins. He still ceded pass downs to Jerome Ford in Week 3. A trailing game script would likely hurt Judkins significantly. However, the Browns defied a large spread last week to keep the game close, allowing Judkins to thrive. His median projection is 11.4 points with an Xfinity Best ceiling of 26.1. Judkins is a borderline RB2 due to the large spread, but it's still a step up from his ranking in Week 3.

Emeka Egbuka ascends to WR1 territory without Mike Evans.

Egbuka is the WR10, averaging 17 fantasy points over the first three weeks. The rookie has a 23% target share and has been the apple of Baker Mayfield's eye on 33% of endzone targets. 

In Week 3, he managed 14.5 fantasy points despite a snap cap, battling through hip and groin injuries.

In Week 4, the Bucs will be more reliant than ever on Egbuka with Evans missing from the lineup. Chris Godwin could return, but he will still be making his way back into form.

The Eagles have been good against WR rooms, holding them 6.2 points below their season average (seventh-best). Additionally, the Bucs carry a subpar team total (20 points). When you add it all up, this isn't a layup game environment. It just represents an opportunity to bet big on an ascending talent who will be the focal point of the Bucs' passing attack.

Egbuka carries the fifth-highest Xfinity projection at 28.2 points in the overall projection model, thanks to Freedman's warm blanket. In my projections, he has the 12th-best ceiling at 26.6 points. Either way, those are both excellent numbers.

Egbuka UPGRADES to low-end WR1 territory against Philadelphia.

WR Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Davante Adams | Rams: Adams has the No. 7 WR Utilization Score (86) and ranks 13th in fantasy points per game at 15.4. His historical comps have averaged 17.3 points per game. The Rams carry a top-four team total this weekend (26.25) as three-point favorites over the Colts in what could be a shootout. Adams is my WR9.
   
• George Pickens | Cowboys: With CeeDee Lamb out (high ankle sprain), Pickens should be in line for plenty of work with the Dallas defense unable to stop anyone. I originally wanted to move Pickens up even more, but this isn't an easy spot. 1) He still hasn't had a big target share game, 2) the Cowboys offer a modest team total (20.25), and 3) the Packers are the second-toughest matchup for WRs with a -7.7 DvP. Despite all of that, Pickens still offers a top-16 Xfinity Best ceiling (25.3) and the No. 11 median (12.1). Pickens is a mid-range WR2 against Green Bay.
   
• Ricky Pearsall | 49ers: Pearsall could see the return of Jauan Jennings and Brock Purdy this weekend. If we get Purdy back but no Jennings, he is locked into mid-WR2 territory. If Jennings plays, he is more of a low-end WR2.
   
• Deebo Samuel | Commanders: The Commanders could be without Terry McLaurin (quad) this weekend. Jayden Daniels (knee sprain) was limited in practice on Wednesday, which leaves the door open for a return. If we get Daniels back and McLaurin is out, Samuel could siphon additional targets—he ranks 25th in target share at 23%. Samuel projects as the WR19 with 11.5 points, but thanks to his expanded role in the run game last weekend, his Xfinity Best ceiling is the third-highest at 29 points. Samuel is a mid-range WR2 but offers big-time WR1 upside.
   
• Keenan Allen | Chargers: Allen is averaging 15.6 points per game and ranks seventh in the NFL with a 27% target share. His 85 Utilization Score is the eighth-best among WRs. The Chargers offer a top-10 team total and are a pass-first unit (7% DBOE). The Giants have been tortured by opposing WRs, unleashing a 6.4-point per game boost. Allen UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory.
   
• Matthew Golden | Packers: Golden saw his most extensive action of the season in Week 3, delivering an 84% route participation with a 16% target share. The Packers also moved him around the formation (21% motion at the snap) and got him involved in the screen game. The result wasn't fantastic with 10.1 fantasy points against the Browns, but things could look much better against the Cowboys. Golden UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 status—he is the No. 44 WR in our median projection, but offers the No. 30 Xfinity Best at 22.3 points.
   
• Tyquan Thornton | Chiefs: Thornton emerged as the top playmaker for the Chiefs over the last two games, scoring 13.9 and 18.1 points with 19% and 27% target shares. He leads the team in air yards on the season at 53%. Xavier Worthy could return to action this weekend, which would create some unknowns around playing time for Thornton, but he deserves reps over the rest of the WRs. Thornton is a WR4 if Worthy is out; with Worthy back in the fold, he is a boom-bust WR5.
   
• Adonai Mitchell | Colts: Alec Pierce is recovering from a concussion. Mitchell hasn't done much so far this year with a lowly 19% route share, but he has a 37% target share. If Pierce doesn't play, Mitchell becomes a WR5 boom-bust flex option against the Rams in deeper leagues.

TE Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Jake Ferguson | Cowboys: Ferguson ranks No. 3 in Utilization Score (86) and could keep things rolling with Lamb out. The inability of the Cowboys' defense to stop anyone should keep the pass attempts flowing in plenty of shootout game scripts. Ferguson averaged nine catchable targets over the first two games with Lamb healthy. He is a top-five TE in Week 4.

Fallers In The Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings

See below for the biggest downgrades in my Week 4 rankings.

• Dak Prescott | QB | Cowboys: Prescott is averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game as the QB25 this season. While the attempts and yards have been there, the fantasy points haven't followed, as the Cowboys have opted for the run in the red zone. With Lamb out, the Cowboys are seven-point dogs to the Packers, who have been the toughest out for QBs, holding opponents 5.7 points under their season average. Prescott could still come through in a passing script, I just didn't see the need to force it with so many other viable options—he is my QB20. 
   
• Chase Brown | RB | Bengals: The workload hasn't been an issue for Brown, so you guys can thank me now—this callout will surely get Brown's motor running. Brown is averaging two yards per carry, and the Bengals' offense is out of sorts. Technically, the Broncos' defense has been good to running backs (+5.7), but my spider senses are tingling because I'm unsure if the Bengals' offensive line can unlock that potential. Cincinnati ranks dead-ass-last in PFF Run Blocking grade (53.2). The Bengals are 7.5-point dogs and sport the fourth-lowest team total—a terrible combo for RBs historically. Brown projects as the RB23 and is a borderline RB2 in our consensus ranks.
   
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | Commanders: Washington deployed a nasty three-way committee in the first game without Austin Ekeler. Bill handled 39% of the snaps and only 26% of the rushing attempts. He had a 5% target share on a 30% route participation. We cannot bet on JCM being more than a committee until we see it happen. Croskey-Merritt DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB3 status.
   
• Tee Higgins | WR | Bengals: Higgins' season has started terribly (17% target share and 7.8 PPG), which was always a concern given his Jekyll and Hyde nature over the course of his career. Playing without Joe Burrow alongside the best WR in the NFL can be challenging—especially against a good pass defense like the Broncos, which have allowed an opponent-adjusted negative seven points per game (fourth hardest) to WR rooms. Higgins DOWNGRADES to low-end WR3 status.
   
• Calvin Ridley | WR | Titans: Ridley is earning targets (24%), but the Titans' passing attack is on life support. Ridley sports the 12th-lowest catchable target rate at 60%, transforming his 6.7 targets per game into four catchable opportunities per game. Ridley DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR4 territory against a Texans defense holding WR units five points below their average.
   
• Travis Hunter | WR | Jaguars: Hunter has played more on defense in recent weeks, making him too unreliable to have in lineups at this point. The No. 2 NFL Draft pick has averaged only 5.9 fantasy points with a 41 Utilization Score. Hunter DOWNGRADES to low-end WR5 territory in the Week 4 ranks.

Sicko Starts For Week 4

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers who are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup, but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

We are looking for players with a rostership under 50% who aren't in many starting lineups.

Let's go, you sickos.

Week 1: Daniel Jones (hit), Jerome Ford (miss), Rashod Bateman (miss), Hunter Henry (hit)

Week 2: Trevor Lawrence (hit), Tyrone Tracy (miss), Kayshon Boutte (hit), Juwan Johnson (hit)

Week 3: Tyrod Taylor (hit), Tyler Allgeier (miss), Wan'Dale Robinson (miss), Cole Kmet (hit)

Jaxson Dart | QB | Giants

Dart is rostered in 17% of Yahoo leagues and is in 2% of starting lineups.

Fantasy quarterbacks are all about archetypes—as you have probably noticed with my SICKO calls. All three have had a rushing component to their game that unlocks a ceiling that their pocket-passing peers must work much harder to attain. In a league that has stifled passing yards over the last three seasons, you could argue it is more important than ever.

Dart handled 16% of the Ole Miss Rebels' designed rushing attempts during his career. That is an extremely high mark, and we have already seen Brian Daboll tinker with Dart's ability in that capacity by rotating him in for snaps before the benching of Russell Wilson. Daboll was with Josh Allen early in his career and had a good season with Daniel Jones—both offered flexibility in game plan design due to their rushing prowess.

We don't know for sure how Dart will fare as a passer, but given his 44 rushing yards per game in college, if things go well, we could get massive fireworks. Dart carries the No. 14 Xfinity Best ceiling at 28.2 points against the Chargers in Week 4.

The beauty of Dart as a SICKO option is that you might find yourself a valuable asset the rest of the way, just like we did with Daniel Jones in Week 1. Dart is a mid-range QB2 with massive QB1 upside.

TreVeyon Henderson | RB | Patriots

Henderson is rostered in 94% of leagues but starts in only 41% of lineups.

Yeah, I broke the 50% rostership rule, but I need a way to quell my Henderson anxiety, and I didn't see a low-rostered option that made much sense. You guys understand, right? Right!?!?

After two fumbles by Rhamondre Stevenson and one fumble by Antonio Gibson, Henderson handled 84% of the snaps over three drives. He also accounted for 90% of the rushing attempts, with a 71% route participation rate. 

There is no way to know how the Patriots will handle this situation moving forward, but the door is open for a larger role for Henderson. The Panthers have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game at 138 yards, and the Patriots are six-point favorites in Freedman's model, with a 25.2 team total (seventh).

Henderson is a mid-range RB3 with RB1 upside should the Patriots decide to let their early second-round pick cook.

Troy Franklin | WR | Broncos

Franklin is rostered in 35% of Yahoo leagues and is in a starting lineup less than 10%.

Franklin was the most-dropped WR on Yahoo after bombing with 2.8 fantasy points in Week 3. However, his underlying Utilization was positive, hitting a season-high 94% route participation.

The second-year WR is the No. 2 target on the Broncos with a 21% target share. He operates primarily from the slot (61%) and ranks first in targets off of screens at 37%. 

The Broncos sport the fifth-highest team total (26), and the Bengals have boosted opposing WR rooms the seventh-most at 5.8 points per game.

Franklin UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory, and if he pairs a full-time role with a strong target share day, he offers a 20-point-plus ceiling. Similar to Dart, Franklin is a fun SICKO option because he could hang around on your roster after Week 4.

Cade Otton | TE | Buccaneers

Otton is rostered in 6% of Yahoo leagues and starts in 1% of lineups.

Otton averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game in a three-game stretch in 2024 without Evans and Godwin in the lineup.

Egbuka is the favorite to lead the charge against the Eagles, but Otton could be their No. 2 in the passing game if Godwin's reps are capped.

Otton is a mid-range TE2 with low-end TE1 upside.

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