Week 4 QB Rankings: Jordan Love And More Of Freedman's Favorites
Matthew Freedman previews his Week 4 QB rankings and highlights a pair of his biggest upgrades of the week.
It's Week 4, and that means for each team we now have three games to analyze—three distinct data points to consider.
One point is almost meaningless. It exists by itself in the infinite nothingness of space and time.
But two points form a line. They give us directionality.
And three points form a triangle. They give us dimensionality.
In other words: The season is truly starting to take shape.
Let's get into the Week 4 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of:
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my weekly fantasy football rankings, and my weekly NFL player projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 4 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 4 Quarterback Rankings
My top-12 QBs for Week 4 are below. You can find the rest of my rankings here.
Jordan Love Upgrades in Week 4 QB Rankings
Jordan Love looked like a potential MVP candidate in Weeks 1-2 with a 10.6 AY/A and 0.236 composite EPA + CPOE (per RBs Don't Matter).
Last week, though, he passed for just 183 yards, threw his first INT of the season, and took five sacks as the Packers suffered an underwhelming 13-10 loss to the Browns.
But the Browns have an elite defense, Cleveland is a tough place to play—and it was Week 3.
Weird stuff happens in Week 3, especially when a team is facing an underdog yet to win a game. Since 2003, dogs with 0-2 records have markedly outperformed expectations (per Action Network).
- Against the Spread: 71-51-2 | 12.3% ROI
- Moneyline: 46-76-1 | 17.5% ROI
That's why I was skeptical of the Packers last week in survivor contests.
But that was last week.
This week, the Packers are looking to bounce back from a loss, and even though they're on the road for the second straight game, they're getting a soft away matchup against the Cowboys, who have had the league's worst home-field advantage over the past year (-10.1, per NFElo).
Playing at AT&T Stadium didn't seem to bother Love in the Wild Card Round of the 2023-24 playoffs, when he destroyed the Cowboys with 272 yards and three TDs passing on a 76.2% completion rate and 15.8 AY/A.
And it's not as if the Cowboys have gotten better since then: This year, they're No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (28.1).
On top of that, they could be without CBs Trevon Diggs (shoulder) and DaRon Bland (foot).
The Packers are No. 2 on the week in implied team total (27.25). I expect them to go off.
Geno Smith Upgrades to Solid QB2
You might not think of Geno Smith as having a high ceiling, but last week he was a top-five fantasy finisher with 26.1 points (per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix).
For the season, he's No. 2 with 831 yards passing.
OK, yes, he's also No. 2 with four INTs and 12 sacks. He has a floor.
But he has the ability in any given game to rip off 300+ yards passing and he also can add a little with legs (9-35-0 rushing).
After playing in the difficult "Widowmaker" spot last week (on the road with a four-day rest disadvantage), Smith is now back at home, and he's going against a Bears defense that in the back seven is without No. 1 CB Jaylon Johnson (calf, groin - IR) and also might be without slot CB Kyler Gordon (hamstring), depth CB Jaylon Jones (hamstring), and LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring).
Under new DC Dennis Allen, the Bears have allowed 31 points per game and are No. 2 in the largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+8.3).
With this matchup, Smith is a mid-range QB2.
The Dropback
Justin Fields (Jets) at Dolphins: Fields (concussion) missed last week, but I tentatively expect him to return this week. Fields is mercurial as a passer (6.6 AY/A for career), but he's an elite runner with a position-high 25% designed rush rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). If Fields is out again, no worries—I still like backup Tyrod Taylor (No. 1 at position with 16% scramble rate). The Dolphins are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.440) and SR (58.0%) and could be without CBs Storm Duck (ankle) and Jason Marshall (hamstring) and SS Ifeatu Melifonwu (calf).
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) vs. Jets: The Dolphins have 11 days between games to rest and prepare, so I expect them to look better against the Jets, who are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.319) and defensive pass DVOA (54.4%, per FTN). In the secondary, the Jets could be without CB Sauce Gardner (head) and SS Tony Adams (groin, hip). The total for this game is only 44.5, but the over is a five-star bet (per our Fantasy Life Game Model).
Sam Darnold (Seahawks) at Cardinals: Given how much the Seahawks run the ball, it's hard to trust Darnold, but he at least has 513 yards and four TDs passing over the past two weeks after his 150-yard dud in Week 1. The Cardinals are No. 28 in defensive pass SR (52.2%), slot CB Garrett Williams (knee, IR) is out, and perimeter CB Will Johnson (groin) is uncertain.
Carson Wentz (Vikings) vs. Steelers (in Ireland): Wentz was serviceable and efficient last week (173 yards, two TDs passing with a 70.0% completion rate, 10.7 AY/A), and I expect him to draw at least one more start in relief of J.J. McCarthy (ankle). The return of LT Christian Darrisaw (knee) solidifies the OL, and the Steelers might not have EDGE Alex Highsmith (ankle), CB Joey Porter (hamstring), and SS DeShon Elliott (knee). Wentz is streamable, and I might even be willing to role with him in Guillotine Leagues™.
Notes
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life Newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 4 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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