One of my favorite tricks to watch is three-card monte.

The setup is simple. You’ve got three cards (obviously), with one that’s different than the others. I’ve usually seen a queen used (Find the Lady), but it varies. The performer lays the cards down, shuffles them around, and the mar—I mean, participant, has to follow the specific card. Sleight of hand and misdirection are key to making the whole thing work. I feel like I’m back at a gas station in Cincinnati getting asked to play this game heading into Week 4.

We’ve got three data points after a few sets of games. Some of it makes sense. Other pieces feel like distractions. But every Thursday and Sunday, we have to decide what was real. And not just the outcome, but how it happened. Which is why, when evaluating receiver matchups, it’s crucial to highlight the opportunity for the WR, along with their potential to capitalize on their upcoming environment.

WR/CB Matchups to Target in Week 4

A.J. Brown at Buccaneers

After seeing A.J. Brown be, well, A.J. Brown last Sunday, any fantasy manager with him on their roster is looking for a repeat performance. But Brown isn’t the only one responsible for his production. Jalen Hurts has to opt to throw him the ball. And that’s part of why we saw the Eagles’ WR1 back in the WR1 ranks by the end of Week 3.

• Scramble Rate: 27.3% (Week 1), 4.0% (Week 2), 2.7% (Week 3)
• Air Yards per Pass Attempt: 4.9, 7.6, 8.6
• WR Target Rate: 35.0%, 76.2%, 76.7%

Surprisingly, Philadelphia isn’t as effective running the ball. Through three weeks, Saquon Barkley sits below the league average in adjusted yards before contact and rushing success rate. OC Kevin Patullo’s response has been to (finally) turn Hurts loose as a passer. Coincidentally, where Hurts preferred to pass aligns with how the last QB to face the Buccaneers found success through the air.

Actually, while we’re at it, let’s contextualize Tampa’s defensive schedule. They faced Michael Penix in his fourth NFL start and he finished eighth in EPA per dropback. In Week 2, the Bucs ripped through Houston’s offensive line, but C.J. Stroud had his best statistical matchup with a passer rating of 97.0. And then, HC Todd Bowles got to host Tyrod Taylor, who, with Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard, finished above the league average in passing success rate. 

So, Brown hoarding a third of the looks in Week 3 is just the tip of the iceberg here. His QB is throwing more, and in the area Brown primarily operates. Plus, the Bucs’ defense has shown susceptibility to perimeter throws, putting Brown on the path to another top-12 outing.

Garrett Wilson vs Dolphins

The Dolphins’ defense has been the cure-all for opposing passing games. Weeks 1 and 3 yielded a top-24 finish at the position from the Colts and Bills, respectively. Even the Patriots got in on the action, but it was Rhamondre Stevenson coming through with a 5-88-0 stat line. Anyway, it’s not just that Miami’s defense has problems on the backend, but how offenses have chosen to stress the opposing corners.

• Completion Rate Allowed (to WRs): 76.9%, Highest
• Opponent Air Yards per Attempt: 6.5, Fewest

Michael Pittman (8-80-1), Dalton Kincaid (6-66-1), and Khalil Shakir (4-45-1) gave the Dolphins fits in the short area of the field. Nobody was over 7.0 air yards per attempt. They did their damage after the catch. So even if Garrett Wilson has to enter Week 4 with Tyrod Taylor under center, how the two connected against the Tampa directly addresses Miami’s weakness.

Wilson’s air yards per target plummeted from 9.6 with Justin Fields to 5.8 in Week 3. But his command over the receiving corps didn’t change. The fourth-year receiver hoarded 37.1% of Taylor’s attempts with a 46.6% air yard share. As HC Aaron Glenn mulls over who will start, Wilson should still be able to take advantage of the fantasy-friendly matchup regardless of who’s throwing him the ball.

Sneaky WR/CB MatchupsFor Week 4

Romeo Doubs vs Cowboys

Don’t be too quick to judge Romeo Doubs’ potential after his output from last week. 

• Target Rate: 8.0%
• Air Yard Share: 20.8%
• PPR FPTs: 4.5

The Packers faced Cleveland’s defensive front. Jordan Love faced pressure on 46.7% of his pass attempts. It’s no wonder they’re yet to allow 200 yards passing in a single game. Even worse, the Browns have limited two of the three opposing offenses to less than 70 passing yards to the outside. Now, contrast them to the Cowboys’ coverage.

• Passing YPG Allowed (to outside WRs): 161.0, Most
• Passing Success Rate: 67.4%, third-highest
• Explosive Play Rate: 25.8%, seventh-highest

Doubs ran route on 93.5% of Love’s dropbacks. More importantly, all but three came from the outside. And after seeing him average 4.5 targets per game in his first two games, his opportunity and production should pick up against Dallas.

Tre Tucker vs Bears

There’s nothing ‘sneaky’ about recommending a guy that just scored 45.2 PPR points. However, the ‘chasing points’ conundrum might have you hesitating to start Tre Tucker in Week 4. So, let’s see if his usage is worth a flex spot.

Nine targets and 43.0% of Geno Smith’s air yards. But I’m looking at his route depth. Tucker averaged an absurd 14.1 air yards per target. A third of his catches were explosive plays. Now, let’s check in on the Bears’ defense.

• Explosive Play Catch Rate Allowed: 26.5%, second-highest
• Yards per Game Allowed on +15 Air Yard Throws: 106.0, second-most

However, the biggest point in favor of Tucker is how often Smith looked his way. From a clean pocket, Tucker had a 57.1% target rate. At worst, this indicates Smith wanted to keep Tucker involved. And he was right to do it. Tucker’s speed will challenge Chicago’s perimeter corners, but the depth makes him seem like a volatile option. But the volume should make him a solid flex option for Week 4.

WR/CB Matchup To Avoid In Week 4

George Pickens vs. Packers

My concern for George Pickens isn’t about his potential share of the looks from Dak Prescott. It’s where he aligns pre-snap. Or, I’ll take it to another level, how little his pre-snap alignment changes.

• Slot Rate: 12.5% (Weeks 1-2), 1.8% (Week 3)
• Outbreaking Route Rate: 46.2%, 55.6%
• Pre-Snap Motion Rate: 0.0%, 0.0%

I realize Pickens isn’t CeeDee Lamb. However, in Lamb’s absence, you’d hope to see Pickens’ role expand. For a receiver that Dallas used multiple picks to acquire, you’d think (hope?) he’d operate as the WR1 other than in volume only. Instead, Jake Ferguson led the squad with 14 targets. KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert took the inside job, and Turpin was just behind Pickens in air yards. Said another way, the former Steeler doesn’t stand out.

Taking on the Packers’ defense shouldn’t ease our concerns, either. Their coverage unit has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR PPG to WRs. On top of that, Green Bay has surrendered the fifth-fewest passing yards to receivers operating on the perimeter. Without a better matchup or the potential for a significant bump in targets, Pickens’ outlook for Week 4 should be one to avoid.

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