Week 5 Bold Predictions: Woody Marks Goes Nuclear Once Again
Matthew Freedman breaks down his three bold predictions for Week 5 of the fantasy football season.
It's time for the Week 5 bold predictions piece.
For my full thoughts on the characteristics of a fearless forecast, see my Week 1 NFL bold predictions piece, but here's the basic idea: Each week, I want to make 3-5 predictions that are improbable and yet also actionable.
Technically wrong but directionally right.
In a word: Bold.
Rankings, Projections & Bold Predictions Content
I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which will reflect any updated opinions I have after I submit this article.
For more of my player analysis, check out my Week 5 Freedman's Favorites series (via my Fantasy Life author page).
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Abbreviations I might use are at the end of the piece.
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Let's get to it: The Oracle's Week 5 bold calls!
The Oracle's Bold Predictions For Week 5
The Arizona Cardinals Will Boat Race The Tennessee Titans
The 0-4 Titans have a very unkind league-worst -69 point differential.
They were competitive against the Broncos in a 20-12 Week 1 loss, but since then they've gotten increasingly futile each game.
- Week 2 (vs. Rams): 33-19 loss | -14 margin
- Week 3 (vs. Colts): 41-20 loss | -21 margin
- Week 4 (at Texans): 26-0 loss | -26 margin
To be frank: This team sucks.
I like to use the betting market as a proxy for "expectations."
There could be some teams that are bad but still do well against the spread: That was the Lions in the early days of HC Dan Campbell's regime. The team lost lots of games—but it always competed and often covered.
That's not the Titans under HC Brian Callahan.
- 2024: 2-15 ATS | -13.1 units
- 2025: 0-4 ATS | -4.0 units
Everyone knows this team is bad. Every game, the market positions itself based on that inscrutable assumption.
And yet the market still—almost every week!—overvalues the Titans.
I think that's the case once again this week.
The Cardinals are consensus 7.5-point favorites, but I have this game projected at -10. The Cardinals are a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Models.
They have three extra days of rest coming off Thursday Night Football. This is their second straight home game. At State Farm Stadium, they've had a top-five home-field advantage over the past 16 games (+10.4, per NFElo).
In this game, they will get the full benefit of their HFA in that they're an indoor team that plays on grass hosting a non-divisional outdoor team that plays on turf.
And this is the second straight road game for the Titans, who are traveling west to play in a late 4:05 pm ET game (vs. their normal time slot of 1 pm ET).
The Titans are in such disarray that last week Callahan yielded offensive play-calling duties … but instead of giving them to OC Nick Holz, he turned them over to QBs coach Bo Hardegree.
And then the team scored … zero points.
I expect them to get trounced once again this week.
Bold Prediction: Cardinals beat Titans by 35+ points.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (in London) Is A Snoozefest
Jim Schwartz and Brian Flores have respectively been the Browns and Vikings DCs since 2023.
Over the past 2+ years, here's where they rank in defensive EPA (per RBs Don't Matter).
- Browns: -0.065 | No. 1
- Vikings: -0.064 | No. 2
So we have the league's two best defenses … and a backup QB in Carson Wentz … and an undersized third-round rookie QB making his first NFL start in Dillon Gabriel … in an overseas game … played in a soccer stadium (Tottenham Hotspur).
This game easily has a slate-low consensus total of 36, but I think that's still too high. The under is a five-star bet.
Bold Prediction: Vikings and Browns combine for fewer than 10 points.
Woody Marks (Texans) Goes Nuclear at Ravens
This week, the Ravens could be without seven—SEVEN!—of their defensive starters.
- DT Nnamdi Madubuike (neck, IR)
- DT Broderick Washington (ankle, IR)
- DT Travis Jones (knee): Out Week 4
- EDGE Kyle Van Noy (hamstring): Last played in Week 2
- LB Roquan Smith (hamstring): Exited Week 4, doubtful
- CB Marlon Humphrey (calf): Exited Week 4, doubtful
- CB Nate Wiggins (elbow): Exited Week 4, questionable
Additionally, they will almost certainly be without QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring, doubtful).
As a consequence, they could struggle to sustain drives on offense and stop them on defense.
And that makes me think we could see a big game out of rookie RB Woody Marks, who broke out last week with 119 yards and two TDs on 17 carries and five targets.
Given the success he had last week, the Texans could lean on him even more this week … and the Ravens are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (30.8).
The Week 7 bye can't get here fast enough for the Ravens.
Bold Prediction: Marks has 150+ yards and 3+ TDs.
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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