Surprisingly enough, the weekend tends to creep up on me.

Yes, I’m working on content just about every day. If I’m not trying to meet a deadline for the next day, I’m compiling notes for something later in the week. Shows, articles, or behind-the-scenes research, like you, I immerse myself in all of the data, practice reports, and news to get my rosters set for Sunday. But then Saturday rolls around and I feel like I’ve lost the plot.

Friday’s news always has a nugget or two worth keeping an eye on heading into Sunday. The weather forecasts are more accurate just a couple of days out. Plus, for the real die-hard managers, we can get the jump on next week. Luckily, the rest of the crew and I have some thoughts on all of that to get you ready for Week 7.

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Week 7 News Update:  Latest and Greatest

Outside of the forecast, everyone will be watching for any updates on the injury front. Luckily, there haven’t been any surprises as of Friday afternoon.

The Rams have international travel and a bye over the next two weeks. So, giving their WR1 more chance to rest after hurting his ankle in Baltimore makes sense. However, finding any value in Puka Nacua’s absence is a tough exercise for fantasy managers.

Admittedly, our projections don’t make things any easier. Matthew Stafford has concentrated 60.3% of his targets on Nacua and Davante Adams. Expecting Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell (with a hamstring injury) or Tyler Higbee to slot into a meaningful role would be a leap. Even if the Jaguars are allowing the seventh-most PPR PPG to WRs, the lack of chemistry with Stafford or skill in general should reduce our confidence in the idea of them taking advantage of the situation. Coincidentally, the Commanders find themselves in a similar spot.

So, no Terry McLaurin for the fourth-straight game. Deebo Samuel is “feeling aight” as it pertains to his heel injury (although, I’d contend that five targets for 15 yards is not “aight,” but I digress). And the Commanders head to Dallas to play against the secondary that’s giving up 270.3 passing yards a game. Again, I want to find pass-catchers to exploit the matchup, but Washington’s personnel doesn’t inspire confidence.

Chris Moore and Jaylin Lane have popped up for good games. Luke McCaffrey has gotten into the end zone. But their workloads have been consistent or on any trend that fantasy managers can trust. And even if Samuel is active, his ability to create after the catch (or lack thereof due to the injury) should limit whatever ceiling he’d have in a positive environment.

Regardless, let’s see what a day of rest for Samuel and the rest of the squad brings. Be sure to check out Ian and me on Sunday morning to answer your start/sit questions, as we’ll have the latest information to guide your roster decisions. Plus, in the meantime, check out the full injury report from Adam and Jorge to catch all of the much-needed context surrounding your starters.

Week 7 Injuries

• QBs
  • Kyler Murray (foot)
  • Brock Purdy (toe)
• RBs
  • Chuba Hubbard (calf)
• WRs
  • Josh Downs (concussion)
  • Mike Evans (hamstring)
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion)
  • Calvin Ridley (hamstring)
  • Quentin Johnson (hamstring)
• TEs
  • David Njoku (knee)

The Week 7 Weather Report

I saw the posts on social media earlier in the week and knew it was my time. I feel like Janine Melnitz from Ghostbusters. We got one! Finally, a game with legitimate worry for the weather. And, I’m not even shocked which stadium we have to monitor.

• Game: Dolphins @ Browns
  • Conditions: Wind, 23 mph (max), mostly in line with the stadium; Rain, 100%chance, 0.05 inches per hour (max)

BLUF: Jaylen Waddle is the only player I’m looking to replace. Even then, I’d need a solid substitute. My largest concern for passing rates and play volume is the projected rainfall in the area right before kickoff (up to 0.13 inches per hour). If this bleeds into the game, expect to see play-calling adjustments until it lightens up (by halftime).

First, I want to address something, though. Meteorologists and beat writers will often report gusts as part of the weather conditions for a game. I have no issue there; they’re reporting the news as it is. However, we might need to reframe our reaction. Look at how the National Weather Service defines gusts:

“Rapid fluctuations in the wind speed with a variation of 10 knots or more between peaks and lulls. The speed of the gust will be the maximum instantaneous wind speed.”

I look at gusts as changes in the air flow that we can’t predict. They could happen, or they won’t. And with so many other variables to consider, focusing on the sustained velocity is the better approach. For example, 30-mph gusts were on the menu ahead of the Rams-Ravens game in Week 6. But that didn’t stop Matthew Stafford from averaging his second-highest air yards per attempt all season (8.8) with Puka Nacua only playing 51% of the snaps. In short, let’s pay more attention to what’ll happen over most of the game.

So, two things are working in favor of the wind not playing a huge role in this contest. First, its direction. Air flow will be coming from the SW and SSW, which mostly aligns with the orientation of Hunting Bank Field. I doubt anyone’s rostering Andre Szmyt or Riley Patterson, but the slight crossbreeze may push a FG attempt in either direction. The second positive is that the building is a primarily enclosed structure.

In essence, the stadium acts as a natural barrier. We’ve seen this before. Back in 2021, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray squared off with the wind speed at 23 mph at kickoff. Matt Prater hit three goals of lengths 33, 36, and 51 yards. 

Anyway, I’ve got five games in my database with the Browns at home in 20-25 mph winds. Across all five, there have been negligible shifts in play-calling tendencies.

• Pass Rate Over Expected: +1.0% (Browns), +0.3% (Away Teams)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected: +0.9%, -2.7%
• Plays Run: +3.3, -5.1

However, there’s still the rain portion of the elements to consider.

Notice the part in red that I circled. Normally, 0.03 inches per hour isn’t a cause to start making lineup changes. It’s enough accumulation for wet-ball turnovers, where a diminished grip on the ball leads to an interception or fumble, but nothing affecting a team’s plans. But the pre-game downpour matters. The 2019 Mud Bowl had similar precip rates, but for the entire game. If the heavier rainfall persists into the start of the game, I’d expect a drop in passing rates until it subsides.

Exploiting the Ranks, aka I Hope I’m Wrong

I check the ranks each week partly for my own sanity. But also, to get a sense of where many of the start/sit questions will come from on Sunday morning. Honestly, you could replace Tier 4 with a shrug emoji.

Michael Pittman should see a boost with Josh Downs out with a concussion, but the rest have tough defensive matchups. Kendrick Bourne was one I highlighted as someone fantasy managers should lower expectations for, given how well the Falcons’ defense has played. 

Jameson Williams is the only one who sticks out of the group.

Per our Utilization Report game logs, his shift in usage is what we needed to see. I’ve called him “Fancy MVS” in the past due to his double-digit aDOT in three of five contests heading into Week 6. Jared Goff looking for him closer to the line of scrimmage (enough times to rack up a 30% air yard share) is similar to what we’ve seen from Amon-Ra St. Brown. And with the Bucs’ defense being something of a pass funnel (30th in rushing YPG allowed, 11th in receiving YPG allowed), I’ll pick Williams out of any multi-player question with Detroit’s WR2 in it.

Planning Ahead

Weeks 5 through 7 were just the opening salvo from the league as it pertained to bye weeks. The roster management battle reaches its peak on Tuesday. Six teams will be taking their mid-season break. And just from looking at the list of QBs and RBs who’ll have to stay on our benches, getting ahead of the situation might save you some time and FAAB.

• Quarterbacks
  • Kyler Murray
  • Jared Goff
  • Trevor Lawrence
  • Matthew Stafford
  • Sam Darnold
• Running Backs
  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • David Montgomery
  • Rachaad White
  • Ashton Jeanty
  • Kyren Williams
  • Travis Etienne
  • Kenneth Walker
  • Zach Charbonnet

So, let’s find viable replacements. It won’t be pretty. “Barren” is likely the best way to describe your waiver wire. However, Danny had at least one option at each position.

• Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (25% rostered)
  • “The 41-year-old has been steady if not spectacular in leading the 4-1 Steelers into Cincinnati on Thursday night, scoring between 12.4 and 12.8 fantasy points in three of four contests after starting the season with 25.7 (QB7) against the New York Jets… Equipped with an alpha WR1 in DK Metcalf, shifty-enough tight ends and a pair of quality receiving backs, the 41-year-old is set up for a spike week…”
  • (Chris’ Notes) Admittedly, you could do worse. While Rodgers is executing the “park-and-bark” offense (just drop back and throw; no addition to the run game), there’s a floor of production we can use. He’s averaged nearly 200 YPG over his last three and sits in the middle of the pack in terms of EPA per dropback. Despite going up against the Packers’ defense, Rodgers’ quick-passing should be enough to get you through the week.
• Running Back: Tyjae Spears (29% rostered)
  • “In his second game back from a high ankle sprain, Tyjae Spears (29%) settled into his familiar (and effective) role in Tennessee. The 5-foot-11, 195-pound back posted 9.0 PPR points on only five carries and four targets, but his nine opportunities only trailed starter Tony Pollard by three (10-34-0, two catches).”
  • (Chris’ Notes) Per our Utilization Report game logs, Spears saw an uptick in snaps (60%) and share of the backfield (33% of the attempts). However, more importantly, he earned 14% of the targets as opposed to Tony Pollard’s 6%. At worst, we get to see how the new coaching affects the offense as a whole before we have to start anyone from Tennessee.