
Dwain McFarland runs through his risers and fallers in the Week 7 fantasy football rankings, including his Sicko start of the week and brass balls bench of the week.

It is time to set our fantasy lineups and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 7 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.
The most predictive stat for future points at the QB position is fantasy points per game, which means we have likely waited too long to move Mayfield up the ranks. The veteran QB averages the second-most fantasy points per game (22.9). But that is not all. He also gets a fantastic matchup against the Ravens' funnel defense.
Baltimore provides the largest passing yards boost to opposing signal callers in the NFL at 60 yards per game. In this case, boost means how many yards they have allowed over their opponents' average for the season.
Mayfield UPGRADES to QB9 this weekend.
Seattle has dropped back to pass on 79%, 88%, and 73% of plays over the last three games. Those are not numbers you would associate with an environment ripe for fantasy production if you still viewed Walker as an early-down-only option.
However, if you have been following along with the Utilization Report, you are a ball-knower and understand that Walker is in a near-every-down role (including the two-minute offense), which unlocked 33.6, 14.6, and 20.9 point outings. He ranks No. 2 in Utilization Score (9.1) and his production is likely here to stay.
This weekend, Walker gets an opportunity to shred a Falcons defense, allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game (143). If the game goes into shootout mode, no worries. Walker has a 15% target share in the year and averages six looks per game.
Walker is a SMASH play and UPGRADES to No. 4 in the RB ranks across the entire Fantasy Life crew.
Dobbins is sitting at the center of a perfect storm.
Kimani Vidal will steal some passing-down reps, but Dobbins offers MASSIVE upside against Arizona. This setup could ignite a 150-yard and multi-TD explosion.
Dobbins UPGRADES to top-six RB status and is SMASH play.
With six weeks of data, many of the historical data priors in the backend rankings and projection algorithm have been washed away. With that, Hubbard gets a dramatic bump up the ranks thanks to his 8.0 Utilization Score (10th) and 16 fantasy points per game (10th).
The 21-day practice window for Jonathon Brooks opened this week, so he will soon return to the lineup, but that likely won't be this weekend. That leaves the door open for another high-end utilization outing from Hubbard, who owns 73% of the team's rushing attempts and a 9.1 Utilization Score (elite) over the last four games.
The Commanders cough up the tenth-most rushing yards per contest (138), but the Panthers must avoid falling behind as eight-point dogs to allow Hubbard to eat. Still, Hubbard averaged five targets per game over the last month, so he isn't a lost cause in a sideways game script.
Nerd Note: Why aren't EPA, success rate, and other advanced stats discussed with matchups? Because the raw yardage allowed is more predictive of future fantasy success. Those advanced stats can still add context to help us account for volume and other factors, but the simple stats get us what we need for the most part. For all the nerds out there:
Hubbard UPGRADES top-10 status as my RB9 in Week 7.
Brown posted a 53% rush share and reached season-highs in route participation (54%) and target share (14%) in Week 6. We can't overly read too much into this data point because Brown (quad) and Zack Moss (toe) entered the game with injuries.
Still, if we zoom out a little further, we can see a three-week trend where Brown accounted for 52%, 55%, and 53% of the team's rushing attempts. These trends can be fluid, but I am projecting Brown to be the top runner moving forward. The real question is if his uptick in route participation sticks. Moss has a 51% route participation versus 35% for Brown over the same stretch.
The Browns have been solid against the pass (10th) but haven't been as strong against the run (20th), allowing 138 yards per contest.
Brown UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory this weekend.
My son just walked into my room and asked me how I feel about Chris Godwin as I was about to start his write-up. My reply (paraphrasing): I love him! Based on his 8.3 Utilization Score, 67% of his comparisons have finished between WR7 and WR12 over the last four seasons.
While he is off to try and make a trade for Godwin, let's turn our attention to a manna matchup from the heavens. The Ravens allow the most passing yards per game (298) and sanction the No. 2 boost to the WR position at 9.3 points per game.
Godwin is thriving in his new mismatch role under Liam Cohen. He ranks No. 6 in slot rate (61%), where he is best suited to take advantage of mismatches against linebackers and safeties. With Mike Evans banged up, the Buccaneers could feed him even more in Week 7.
Godwin is a SMASH PLAY entering rare air as the WR6 overall.
The Ravens offense has quietly condensed down to one primary option in the passing attack: Mr. Flowers. The second-year WR has a 28% target share on the season. However, his Utilization Score is a little light due to low air yards (24%) and a low-passing volume attack with a -5% DBOE.
When the Ravens get Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson going on the ground, it is hard to blame them for wanting to keep the run-game RPMs redlined. We are talking about the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL at 205 yards per contest.
Still, the Buccaneers allow the fifth-most passing yards per contest (270), and some of their foes have shied away from a run-heavy approach because of Vita Vea. With the third-highest team total on the slate per Vegas oddsmakers, there is plenty to like about Flowers this weekend.
Flowers UPGRADES to high-end WR2 status as my WR13.
Dell re-entered the fantasy conversation with an 18.7-point spike week with Nico Collins out in Week 6. In a consolidated attack, he led the team with a 31% target share and posted a juicy 8.3 Utilization Score.
The Texans will need to score points this weekend against a top-four NFL offense in Green Bay. The Packers average over 400 yards per game of offense, but they have also been susceptible against the pass. Houston sports the seventh-worst pass defense on the slate, allowing 249 yards per game.
It is all systems go for liftoff this weekend for Houston.
Dell UPGRADES to WR14 and is a must-start SMASH play.
Johnson has a 9.1 Utilization Score (the best you can get is 10) with 18.3 fantasy points per game with Andy Dalton as the starter. I don't need to type much more because a four-week sample for the Utilization Score is more predictive of next week's performance than any other metric (including fantasy points) that I have ever tested.
But we are having fun here, so we can't leave out an important detail: Johnson is facing the Commanders!
Yes, those Commanders. The ones that rank third-worst in PFF coverage grade (47.4) and provide the third-highest fantasy boost (5.7) to the WR position.
Okay, now I am done.
Johnson UPGRADES to WR11 and is a SMASH PLAY, y'all.
With Adams shipped to the Jets, Bowers can dominate the Raiders passing attack. Over the last two games without Adams, Bowers posted a pristine 9.4 Utilization Score. The man has a 33% target share and 36% air yards share over that stretch. That type of Utilization Score has historically unlocked high-end TE1 finishes. The Raiders subpar passing attack could hold the electric rookie back, but Bowers is locked into top-three status.
Bowers UPGRADES to TE No. 2 overall, only behind Travis Kelce in Week 7.
With the Browns' target leader–Amari Cooper–now wearing a Bills uniform, Njoku should see more targets. Whether or not those targets will lead to fantasy production is debatable, but their low-aDOT nature could lead to a better completion rate than we saw with Cooper.
Last weekend, Njoku led the team with a 32% target share, and he will look to build off that performance.
Njoku UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status but still carries bust potential.
Murray ranks 12th in fantasy points per game (17.8) thanks to his rushing ability. However, we were hoping for more from an offense that added Harrison Jr. to go along with a young stud tight end in McBride. Unfortunately, the passing offense has fizzled, with Murray averaging only 198 yards per contest.
This weekend, the Cardinals might be without Harrison (concussion), and the Chargers have limited opponents to only 173 yards per game. There could be some smoke-and-mirrors going on with that rank since the schedule has been soft, but Murray looks like another soft matchup at this point.
Murray DOWNGRADES to borderline QB1 status.
Hunt took over the lead role in Week 5 with 75% of the Chiefs rushing attempts on his way to a 7.7 Utilization Score and 18.8 fantasy outing. However, he didn't look particularly impressive, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could return to the fold this weekend. You can call this more of a hunch, but I am not fully bought into Hunt as the clear-cut No. 1.
The 49ers have held opponents to the eight-fewest rushing yards per game (99.5), and the Chiefs have a modest team total by their standards (22.5).
Hunt is a low-end RB2 in Week 7.
We are all excited to see Cooper join Josh Allen in Buffalo, but we should temper expectations this weekend. Typically, it takes time to learn the playbook and even more time to find that ever-evasive chemistry between a signal caller and their wideout. Cooper has the experience to streamline these aspects of a transition–he has done it before when he joined the Cowboys–but don't expect the fully integrated experience this weekend.
The Titans have been stingy against opposing pass catchers, allowing a league-low 126 yards per game. Specifically, against WRs, they have limited opponents to 50 yards less than their season average, which ranks first in the NFL.
Cooper will eventually pay dividends in Buffalo, but he is a borderline WR3 this weekend.
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Week 1: Sam Darnold (hit), J.K. Dobbins (hit), Jalen McMillan (hit), Zach Ertz (miss)
Week 2: Daniel Jones (hit), Zack Moss (miss), Adonai Mitchell (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)
Week 3: Aaron Rodgers (hit), D'Andre Swift (miss), Jordan Whittington (miss), Tyler Conklin (hit)
Week 4: Caleb Williams (miss), Jerome Ford (hit), Darnell Mooney (miss - But the PROCESS WAS RIGHT, he screamed … as his wife and children walked out of his life forever)
Week 5: Deshaun Watson (miss), Trey Sermon (hit), Tutu Atwell (hit)
Week 6: Daniel Jones (miss), Tyjae Spears (null-injured), Jalen Tolbert (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)
Season: 11 of 21
Ouch! Week 6 was rough. Let's see if we can redeem ourselves with a better performance in Week 7.
I also added an alternates section for each position where you can see the complete list of players I considered. I won't claim those in the weekly results, but I thought it might be helpful–especially in deeper leagues.
Let's go, you sickos.
Darnold is only in 22% of starting lineups and is a free agent in 40% of leagues.
Darnold ranks 15th in fantasy points per game (17.1), but that number could be much higher. The Vikings have led by nine-plus points on a league-leading 55% of plays, leading to some run-centric game scripts. In reality, the Vikings have a pass-balanced leaning with the sixth-highest DBOE (3.2%).
The Lions are a neutral matchup for opposing signal callers, and this game could be a shootout. Based on bookmakers, the Vikings have the third-highest team total (26.3).
Darnold UPGRADES to QB10 above names like Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes.
Alternate: Drake Maye
Bigsby is only in 38% of starting lineups and is a free agent in 34% of leagues.
Last week was a disaster for Bigsby managers, who finally decided to give their new toy a spin. The good news is that it was a game-script-induced performance. The bad news is also that it was a game-script-induced performance. That means if the contest against the Patriots ends up in a trailing scenario, we could see more D'Ernest Johnson again.
However, this should be a competitive game at a minimum, and there is a chance the Jaguars control the contest. That is the type of script where Bigsby should thrive if Travis Etienne can't play. In that scenario, I expect Bigsby to handle 50 to 60% of the rushing attempts, with Johnson taking the passing-down reps.
The Patriots have surrendered 128 yards per game on the ground. This is an excellent setup for Bigsby, who has looked like one of the best backs in the league over the first six games. He offers a unique blend of size, acceleration, and power that can unlock a 100-yard performance with multi-TD upside.
Bigsby UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status if Etienne can't go but offers RB1 upside. I have him ahead of names like Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Rachaad White.
Alternates: Javonte Williams, Raheem Mostert
Only in 31% of starting lineups and is a free agent in 22% of leagues.
Sam Darnold loves targeting Addison deep (17.9 aDOT), and the Vikings get a choice matchup against a Lions secondary. Detroit has empowered the fourth-largest fantasy boost per game (4.2) to opposing WR rooms. Look for Addison, who notched a 29% target share in Week 5, to come down with at least one big play for a score in a potential shootout.
Addison is the WR34 in fantasy points per game (12) but UPGRADES to my WR24 and offers WR1 upside in Week 7. He ranks ahead of names like Darnell Mooney, George Pickens, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Josh Downs.
Alternates: Ladd McConkey, DeMario Douglas, Christian Watson, Jerry Jeudy, Bub Means
Schultz is only in 34% of starting lineups and is a free agent in 31% of leagues.
Schultz came up small in the fantasy boxscore (6.7) with a TE20 finish. However, his underlying utilization was much stronger than that. Over the last two games with Nico Collins injured (half of Week 5 and all of Week 6), Schultz has a 7.2 Utilization Score. Last weekend, he was second on the team with a 28% target share.
In a plus matchup against the Packers that could turn into a shootout, Schultz offers mid-range TE1 upside.
Schultz UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status ahead of options like Tucker Kraft and Kyle Pitts.
Alternates: Hunter Henry, Juwan Johnson
I don't necessarily fully endorse these plays, but if you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.
Week 1: Joe Burrow (hit), Josh Jacobs (miss), Brandon Aiyuk (hit)
Week 2: Travis Etienne (miss, but Bigsby was injured), Pickens (hit)
Week 3: J.K. Dobbins (hit), Jaylen Waddle (hit)
Week 4: Anthony Richardson (hit but due to injury)
Week 5: Sam Darnold (hit)
Week 6: Brian Robinson (null-injured)
Season: 7 of 9
Mahomes ranks 19th in fantasy points per game (15.4), and it is hard to see things getting that much better without Rashee Rice or Hollywood Brown. Sure, Mahomes is still the best QB in the NFL and will likely find a way to gut out victory after victory, but this is fantasy football, and team wins don't score us points in most leagues.
The Chiefs are coming off of a bye, so they may have made changes to help the offense. However, the scheme can only boost things by so much unless they can unlock the upside of Xavier Worthy's speed. He is the wildcard that could get this offense back on track.
Mahomes DOWNGRADES to high-end QB2 territory against the 49ers. I would start Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, and Geno Smith over Mahomes this weekend.