Week 9 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions: Kyler Murray Triumphantly Returns
Danny Cross shares his bold predictions for Week 9 of the NFL season, including an explosive return to action for Kyler Murray.
The bold predictions heater continues after Troy Franklin exploded for an overall WR1 finish last week. Mason Taylor fell just outside the top-five tight ends as the TE6 (sorry!), while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn't feel the need to go berserk on the Saints, even though we all know they could have.
Let's get into the Week 9 bold predictions.
Kyler Murray Torches the Cowboys
Fantasy managers are a fickle bunch. A preseason top-10 QB disappoints to the tune of QB20 through four weeks, misses two games with an injury, sits during a bye week, and all of a sudden, his roster rate drops below 70% in fantasy leagues. Actually, that sounds about right when your team is 2-5 and rocking a bottom-10 passing offense to date.
But Kyler Murray returns in Week 9 just in time to join the long list of quarterbacks to light up the Dallas Cowboys.
Murray generally looked like himself during the first month of the season, passing for six touchdowns against three interceptions with 37 yards per game on the ground. Last season's QB14 punched in his first rushing TD in Week 5 before checking out with a foot sprain that kept him sidelined until this week. In his stead, veteran Jacoby Brissett tossed two touchdowns in each of his two starts.
The Cardinals have been a middle-of-the-pack offense to date, averaging 21.9 points (19th) but finding more success through the air (11th in dropback EPA) than on the ground (23rd in rushing EPA). The team lost James Conner in Week 3 and talented young backup Trey Benson the following week, leaving the ground game to Bam Knight (former UDFA) and Michael Carter (released this week and then brought back).
Murray has certainly not been explosive or efficient, with a 5.99 aDOT (40th) and 5.98 YPA (34th). Since the beginning of 2024, he has only accounted for three or more TDs in a game three times, although the rushing volume (572 yards in 2024, fourth-best at QB) has significantly propped up his floor.
Still, this matchup is expected to be a high-scoring affair—the opening game total has climbed from 52.5 to 54.5, the highest on the slate. The Cardinals' defense ranks 9th in EPA/rush but only 20th in EPA/pass, opening the door for Dallas' explosive passing offense to find success. And on the other side, Dallas ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, to wide receivers, and to running backs in the passing game.
If and when this game turns into a shootout, look for Jonathan Gannon to unleash Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, perhaps with a side dish of Emari Demercado (if healthy) through the air. If Murray sneaks in with a rushing TD (or two), his line should look a lot like the previous QBs who have torched the Cowboys this season.
Bold prediction: Kyler Murray totals four touchdowns for the first time since Week 1 of 2024.
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Kimani Vidal Does a Solid LT Impersonation (Minus the Visor)
The Chargers' run game has suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune this year. Najee Harris injured his eye playing with fireworks on July 4, missing all of training camp. After a bumpy start to the year, rookie Omarion Hampton looked to be catching a groove, posting RB4 and RB7 finishes in Weeks 3 and 4 before suffering a high ankle sprain the following week.
Fantasy analysts speculating on the next man up found a pair of familiar names at the bottom of the depth chart: 2022 second-round pick Hassan Haskins (Michigan man) and 2024 sixth-rounder Kimani Vidal (small school dude out of Troy). Bets were largely placed on Jim Harbaugh leaning on his former Wolverine, at least near the goal line, but Vidal won the day. Then Haskins got hurt, too.
Along the way, Vidal has looked the part of a borderline workhorse in a top offense, posting RB9 and RB8 finishes in Weeks 6 and 8, sandwiched around an RB27 finish. Last week, the 5-foot-8, 215-pound back dominated the Chargers' backfield usage with 64% of the carries and an 8% target share in a blowout win, even punching in the team's only carry inside the five.
If we go back to Hampton's post-Najee breakout, the team's lead RB posted the following fantasy finishes starting in Week 3: RB4, RB7, RB21 (before departing in the third quarter), RB9, RB27, RB8. Over the last three weeks, Vidal has dominated the Chargers' backfield usage with 68% of the rushing attempts, a 9% target share, and most of the long-down-and-distance and two-minute work. It helped that Haskins left Week 7 with an injury and sat out Week 8. His status for Sunday is still up in the air.
All of this is to say: The Hampton/Vidal role has been lucrative for fantasy purposes, and the Week 9 opportunity couldn't be better. The Tennessee Titans have allowed one or more rushing touchdowns in every game this year, leading to the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs on the season. Jonathan Taylor has scored six TDs against the Titans himself in two games (five rushing, one receiving).
The Tennessee defense has given up the fourth-most points in the league (28.8 PPG), and the incessant negative game scripts have allowed opposing offenses to run the ball with a lead at will. The Chargers have been the fourth-most pass-happy team in the league this year with a 6.7% pass rate over expected, but they shouldn't need to air it out for long in Nashville. Plus, they're averaging 4.8 yards per pop on the ground anyway (seventh-best).
Vidal will be part of the passing game to start and the running game to finish this one. Unless Haskins returns and gives him a break in the second half, Vidal is in line for another busy day against one of the most generous defenses in the league.
Bold prediction: Kimani Vidal scores 25+ fantasy points.
D'Andre Swift Answers the Question of "Who Dey?"
Targeting the Bengals' defense continues to be a print-fest, especially at running back and tight end. Cincinnati has allowed the most fantasy points to both positions this season: 33.6 points per week to RBs and 21.7 to TEs.
Last week, the 0-7 New York Jets rushed for 254 yards and two scores against Cincinnati as part of a 39-point explosion in a come-from-behind victory. Justin Fields emerged from his temporary benching to efficiently go 21-of-32 for 244 yards and a TD to rookie tight end Mason Taylor, and Jets RBs posted RB4 (Breece Hall) and RB10 (Isaiah Davis) finishes on the week.
Through eight games, only the Pittsburgh Steelers' running back room has failed to score a touchdown against this unit, although Jaylen Warren still managed an RB7 finish without a TD thanks to 16-127-0 and 4-31-0 lines. Here are the running back finishes the Bengals have allowed thus far:
- Week 1: RB9 (Dylan Sampson)
- Week 2: RB14 (Travis Etienne) & RB17 (Bhayshul Tuten)
- Week 3: RB7 (Jordan Mason)
- Week 4: RB12 (RJ Harvey) & RB28 (J.K. Dobbins)
- Week 5: RB10 (David Montgomery) & RB13 (Jahmyr Gibbs)
- Week 6: RB3 (Josh Jacobs)
- Week 7: RB7 (Jaylen Warren)
- Week 8: RB4 (Breece Hall) & RB10 (Isaiah Davis)
D'Andre Swift is next in line to pad his stats against the Bengals, with Kyle Monangai highly likely to break off an explosive play or two as well.
The Bears are averaging 4.4 yards per carry (13th) and 124.6 rushing yards per game (10th), but they stick to the ground game. After opening the season with a surprising 6.7% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Week 1, they've throttled things down and thrown the ball at the third-lowest rate over expectation. Swift's 4.6 YPC ranks 15th on the season, but the Bears trust him because he ranks eighth in success rate (47%) and sixth in explosive run rate (12%).
Chicago hasn't broken off a ton of long runs, ranking outside the top 14 in carries of 15+, 20+, and 30+ yards. But they are consistently getting to the second level, ranking second in the league in 10+ yard carries (15.7%). As the Jets demonstrated last week, Cincinnati has a knack for missing tackles and allowing solid gains to become breakaways.
If the Bears create turnovers or take an early lead, Swift will have a busy day. Ben Johnson may very well dial up a few easy-button plays to inject some confidence into Caleb Williams, who hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in his last two games. But the safest way for Chicago to grind out a much-needed road win this week will be on the back of the team's veteran running back.
Bold prediction: D'Andre Swift goes for 120 yards and two scores.
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