I never really understood ratios until I got into cooking.

Well, before I besmirch my engineering degrees, I’ll clarify that I have a handle on the theoretical concept. From Poisson’s to signal-to-noise, I considered the “:” to be more of a mathematical operator than a part of the English language. However, the practical application and interpretation eluded me.

I can take one look at a recipe and identify the good and bad elements of the dish based on the quantities of each ingredient. A taco recipe might call for too much cilantro. A seafood dish could require more dill than I like. And garlic gets measured with your heart anyway. However, the amounts in relation to the other components are what make the evaluation easier.

Pressure-to-sack ratio operates along a similar logic train. More pressure isn’t necessarily a bad thing (it’s not good either, to be clear). In the right context, sacks aren’t as damning as we think. But when we combine the two, we can better characterize a QB and their play style.

The Definition of Pressure-To-Sack Ratio

“Pressure-to-sack ratio measures the percent of pressured dropbacks that end in a sack.”

Simple, right?

But we don’t track the two stats as a single metric. In real time, we count each one individually and make our decisions based on that. But think about what the first component of pressure-to-sack ratio is capturing. Caleb Williams gave us plenty of examples throughout his rookie campaign.

Everyone remembers the end of Chicago’s Week 8 bout against the Commanders. CB Tyrique Stevenson certainly does. Williams probably remembers everything that happened before the final play. Washington had defenders in his face on 20 of his 32 dropbacks. Of those 20 pressures, eight resulted in the former Trojan taking a hit. But as the above clip highlights, a QB weaving around incoming traffic isn’t always a reflection of their skillset.

Williams was looking to his left from the snap of the ball. Nothing’s there. He works through his progressions, finds Cole Kmet, and the Bears have a new set of downs (+0.5 expected points added). Sure, the play took 3.3 seconds to develop. But Williams can’t move his WRs into an open passing lane. He also can’t stop LG Kiran Amegadjie from nearly getting knocked back into his lap. But still, we mark the pressure down for Williams despite the positive result. However, those plays didn’t always end up with Chicago’s offense moving forward.

On top of seeing the third-most pressures of any starting QB (241), Williams took the most sacks (68). I’d be looking exhausted on the bench, too. Consider all the extra work he had to endure. The average sack in 2024 was for a loss of 6.6 yards. The Bears were slightly worse at 6.8. Anyway, Williams only averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt. His backfield sat at 3.5 yards per tote. Their production didn’t outweigh the mistakes. 

But ultimately, the blame for a passer going down behind the line of scrimmage falls on their shoulders. Only Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Sam Darnold held onto the ball longer in the pocket than Williams. As a unit, the Bears’ WRs averaged the ninth-most yards per separation per NextGenStats. We can criticize Shane Waldron and Thomas Brown all we want, but when we bring pressures and sacks together, the spotlight (negatively) shines on Chicago’s franchise QB.

• Will Levis: 30.4% (pressure-to-sack rate, most of any QB with at least 320 dropbacks)
• Caleb Williams: 28.2%
• Baker Mayfield: 25.2%
• Gardner Minshew: 24.0%
• Jameis Winston: 23.3%

To be fair, Williams is the only rookie on the list. There’s much to his story yet to unfold. But we know what to expect from the other four. Except for Baker Mayfield (who needed a high-end play-caller, offensive line, and pass-catching corps to redeem himself), their approach to quarterbacking only works in short bursts. And how quickly they rack up negative plays has been a key part of their demise. So, yes, measuring pressures and sacks singularly can give us some sense of play style, but the ratio between the two can emphasize some flaws in their game.

Why Does Pressure-to-Sack Ratio Matter?

Let’s start with a single idea and build from there.

“More pressures mean more sacks, and sacks are bad.”

OK, I lied. That’s two ideas. But, on the whole, the thought makes sense. Regardless of why (e.g., bad line, less-talented pass catchers, slow processing), if a QB’s protection continues to break down, the defense will get home at some point. In any case, the ‘sacks are bad’ part I already covered. They move the offense back at the expense of a down. To support the first part, I analyzed the data from the last five years to see if reality jibes with our perceptions on the matter.

Here, the nerds and couch coaches align. An R-squared of 0.38 indicates there’s a solid connection between pressures and sacks. So, the next thought would be an acceptable conclusion.

“A QB with a high pressure rate isn’t good for fantasy.”

It’s not an egregious leap. We just agreed that sacks are bad, and pressures lead to sacks. Consequently, a QB constantly under duress would have a hard time accruing fantasy points. But if you believe that, I’ll refer you to last year’s top-five passers in pressure rate.

• Jalen Hurts: 40.5% (pressure rate), 5th (rank in fantasy PPG)
• Geno Smith: 38.6%, 16th
• Bryce Young: 38.2%, 20th 
• Brock Purdy: 38.1%, 10th 
• Sam Darnold: 38.1%, 9th 

It's a mixed bag, sure. But I see more top-12 finishes than not. Plus, I have fewer questions about their long-term viability as starters than the previous group of QBs. Nevertheless, don’t take my word for it. Let’s apply the same correlation study to pressure rate and fantasy PPG.

A nothingburger. But we should know why. Caleb Williams showed us earlier. While pressures do mean a QB has to reset their throwing platform or bail on the play call completely, the outcome isn’t always negative. And guys like Jalen Hurts emphasized why forcing a QB off their intended pattern can be bad for the defense.

Starting QBs in 2024 only averaged 28.4 scrambles throughout the entire regular season. Break that down to a per-game basis, that’s maybe one or two a week. Nobody’s expected Matthew Stafford to beat feet downfield, but Brock Purdy can boogie with the best of them. And on the whole, QBs who elected to scramble were picking up 8.0 yards per play. That’s more than the loss of a sack! However, still, pressures alone aren’t what brings fantasy scoring down. So, let’s adjust our previous thought.

“A QB with a high pressure rate that also takes sacks isn’t good for fantasy.”

Bingo! (Well, at least to some degree.)

We understand a QB can mitigate pressure with their legs. And even high sack rates (in the context of a drive or offense) aren’t as dire as we think. Using Hurts as the example again, he had the third-highest sack rate. But the Tush Push and his rushing outweighed the lost downs. Jayden Daniels (8.9% sack rate) wasn’t too far behind Hurts, but as the QB3 in offseason best ball drafts, how often he might go down doesn’t matter to fantasy gamers. It’s the sacks relative to the amount of pressure that make the metric more impactful and how we can better gauge a QB’s output for fantasy purposes.

How Can You Use Pressure-to-Sack Ratio?

As I’ve highlighted, we can glean a lot about a QB and their offense from the basic stats that make up Pressure-To-Sack ratio. 

Poor protection or a weak supporting cast (e.g., below-average pass catchers or an inefficient ground game) could influence pressure rate. Slow processing or an inability to get the ball out quicker leads to taking more sacks.

Put another way, we’re wrapping multiple factors, both things that the QB can control and what they can’t, into one measurement. So, P2S can be a quick check on the “health” of an offense. Again, let’s look at the top five from last year, but refine it to the guys with jobs in ‘25.

• Caleb Williams: 28.2%
• Baker Mayfield: 25.2%
• Aaron Rodgers: 22.5%
• Russell Wilson: 22.4%
• Jayden Daniels: 22.3%

A few things here. First, I keep likening pressure-to-sack ratio to a QB’s play style, partly because it’s difficult to change. Believe me, I’ve tried asking Joe Burrow not to take as many sacks.

Anyway, the average change (in either direction) in P2S for one passer from one season to the next has been by 4.2 percentage points. Noteworthy, but something significant would have to occur to change the narrative. Think about Josh Allen when he first came out.

• 2018: 16.3% (22nd-highest rate)
• 2019: 19.3% (12th)
• 2020: 10.7% (32nd) 

Allen’s transformation has been one of the more remarkable development arcs in recent memory. But it took time. Plus, there was a commitment from Buffalo’s front office to build around their QB.

Regardless, if you can get behind P2S generally holding steady between years, let’s layer in another stat to highlight its utility.

Combining pressure-to-sack ratio with scramble rate emphasizes what we already know. We need to target QBs with some mobility in their game. But by ADP, most of the guys in the top left have a hefty price tag. And if you choose to wait, you’re investing in a worse team or situation. However, this analysis highlights which QBs could still produce for us in fantasy from a weaker position.

Caleb Williams, with a new play-caller and retooled line, could take the much-needed leap in 2025. In his first year, he put up more yards as a scrambler than Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. If the passing game comes together, the NFC North has a problem. In either case, with an understanding of P2S, we can optimally build a case for a QB’s value before the season starts.

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