Kendall Valenzuela took a deep dive into four quarterbacks going into their second seasons, determining if they could slide like C.J. Stroud in Year 2.

C.J. Stroud's career so far is defined by two very different seasons. Let's start with the good: the 2023 season that made everyone a Stroud believer in fantasy football.

During his rookie campaign, Stroud walked away with Offensive Rookie of the Year honors after helping lead the Houston Texans to an 11-6 record and an AFC South division title. Just to put it into perspective: Houston had 11 total wins combined in the three seasons before drafting Stroud. Between Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans became just the third rookie quarterback-head coach duo to win a playoff game since 1950.

It was a huge year for Stroud, who finished as the QB9 in total fantasy points. He completed 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards which included 23 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions (100.8 passer rating). He also led the NFL in passing yards per game (273.8) and had the lowest interception rate. 

Ah, if we could have lived in that bubble for just a little longer.

Stroud's sophomore season didn't see him live up to those huge expectations put on his shoulders for 2024. Stroud was going off the board as the fifth quarterback selected in fantasy drafts, which was early in Round 5. And we all know what happened from there …

He finished overall as the QB18 and averaged just 13 fantasy points per game. After the team added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, it felt like the Texans had the weapons to fully support Stroud. But a string of injuries to key offensive players coupled with bad offensive line play sunk any hopes of a sophomore breakout. Remember, Stroud was sacked 52 times last season (second most in the NFL), which was far more than his 38 sacks from his rookie season. He was also pressured on 38.6% of his dropbacks (second most in the NFL), according to Next Gen Stats.

Now, you all know me pretty well by now, so you know that this exercise isn't to hope for downfall for one of these second-year quarterbacks. We're here to see what each team did during the offseason to build around their quarterbacks and who might not pay off their (early, early) ADP. Here we go … 

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Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (Current ADP: QB3)

Please do not YELL AT ME, OK! We're going through all the second-year quarterbacks and Jayden Daniels just so happens to have the best rank out of all of them … and for very good reason.

The dual-threat quarterback, who was going far too late as the QB12 in some fantasy football drafts, vastly outperformed his ADP and finished as the overall QB4 with 351.6 fantasy points in 2024. Yeah, that intro definitely doesn't do him justice (we have to do better or the big boss Matthew Berry will be calling).

Not only did Daniels finish as the QB4, he also set the rookie record for most quarterback rushing yards with 891 yards on the season and in doing so surpassed Robert Griffin III. Oh, you want more? Daniels scored 20+ points 10 times and averaged 29.9 points during the fantasy playoffs. He finished with 3,568 passing yards on 7.4 yards per attempt, and had 25 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions.

Look, let's just get this out of the way: I am not betting on Jayden Daniels to have a sophomore slump. He is a much better athlete than C.J. Stroud and the dual-threat ability makes it nearly impossible for fantasy managers to fade him. The argument here is that you don't like the QB3 price tag, but that comes with the territory when trying to draft an elite quarterback.

The Washington Commanders were able to keep offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury in the building, which is always a win for any quarterback but especially a young quarterback still developing. The team's offensive line also helped matters—they had a run-block win rate of 74%, which ranked second behind the Denver Broncos. Tyler Biadasz also gave the Commanders stability at center and allowed just one sack with a 98.6 efficiency rating from PFF.

Washington has to face formidable pass rushers often with Micah Parsons, Brian Burns, Nolan Smith, and now Abdul Carter in the same division so they made sure to spend on tackle this offseason. They sent three draft picks to the Houston Texans for Laremy Tunsil and then used their 2025 first-rounder on Josh Conerly Jr (who really could be a starter at guard and still be effective).

We also can't forget that the Commanders signed Deebo Samuel during free agency, who should be a nice complement alongside Terry McLaurin if he's able to stay healthy. Overall, injuries feel like the only thing that would be able to derail another amazing season for Daniels. I'm betting that the Commanders will build off the franchise's best season since 1991 and that Daniels will have another stellar fantasy performance. He could finish as the overall QB1 in fantasy this year.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (Current ADP: QB10)

While the QB10 price tag isn't nearly as "risky" as Stroud's QB5 price tag in 2024, this feels like an investment maybe some won't want. Hand up, I did not expect the Denver Broncos to be serious contenders in 2024—I thought they were still a year or two away. But Bo Nix was the beacon of hope for Denver last season.

Nix finished the season as the QB10 and recorded the fifth-most fantasy points for a rookie quarterback. Fun fact (if you win trivia with this question, my fee is 15%) Bo Nix was the first Broncos rookie quarterback to start a season opener since Hall of Famer John Elway in 1983. When we look at the whole picture with Nix, he completed 66.3% of his passes and finished with 3,775 yards and a QBR of 56.9 (18th in the NFL).

He also showed some upside with his legs and compiled 430 rushing yards (third-leading rusher for the Broncos) and 4 touchdowns on the ground.

Overall, Nix showed improvement game in and game out in 2024, which is exactly what we want to see from rookie quarterbacks. Head coach Sean Payton was also someone who adapted during the season. The Broncos actually went from 25th in play-action during the first six weeks of the season to finishing ninth in the NFL by the time the regular season finished. 

Now, there is still work to be done here with Nix. According to The Athletic, he was tied for 25th in yards per attempt on vertical passes and he also had the second-highest rate of throws behind the line of scrimmage. Courtland Sutton was the leading receiver for Denver, but the crazier part was that Nix and Payton really liked to spread the ball around—10 different players caught touchdown passes in 2024. I just wish they had a little bit more juice outside of Marvin Mims, Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant.

Evan Engram is a new addition at tight end and if he's really going to be in that "joker" role, then he does elevate this offense. I mean it can't get worse than the past two seasons where the Broncos' tight ends ranked dead last in targets.

The Broncos got mixed reviews when it came to their draft grades. While many believe they would use their first-round pick on a much-needed running back, the team actually went the opposite direction with corner Jahdae Barron. Eventually the Broncos drafted RJ Harvey, who really does fit the mold as a “Sean Payton pick.” Getting a better run game in 2025 is going to be critical—Denver averaged 112.2 rushing yards per game (16th in the NFL). 

Overall, I wish the Broncos got one more pass catcher to add to this offense for Nix. They addressed a huge need at running back and tight end, but I fear wide receiver could hurt this team in 2025, especially since Nix was the QB16 and QB21 in EPA per dropback (+0.09) and completion percentage over expected (+0.6%), respectively, among 32 qualified quarterbacks. 

According to ESPN, the Broncos had the third-highest rate of three-and-out drives (26.3%), and Nix also had a QBR 56.0 (26th in the NFL) when blitzed. Nix is working behind a stellar offensive line and if he can continue improving each week we should see solid returns.

However, If I had to bet on a Stroud-type season relative to ADP (not that Nix is going to free fall into a QB20 finish), it would be Bo Nix at this current moment. The lack of wide receiver additions scares me a little, but they did get impact players like Harvey, Engram and potentially Bryant. I don't think a QB10 price tag is egregious — let's see if he jumps into the top 7 quarterbacks and then I'll plant my flag. 

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (Current ADP: QB8)

I don't think Caleb Williams really counts as someone with the potential to have a disappointing sophomore season like Stroud, because we already lived it in 2024. I'M SORRY. It really wasn't all bad for Williams, but he left a lot of meat on the bone with his QB14 finish in 2024.

This is a clean start for Willians heading into the 2025 season, and if we thought that he couldn't be better set up for success last season, this year's offense blows that totally out of the water. As the team is currently constructed, it feels like there is no excuse for Williams to not succeed.

Williams took a league-leading 68 sacks last season, the third-most in NFL history. And in those 68 sacks he lost 466 yards, which was the fourth-most ever. This was PFF's reigning 24th-ranked offensive line and the 23rd-ranked offense in running back rush yards before contact per carry. Blame can be placed both on Williams and the offensive line, but at least his new head coach Ben Johnson is tackling one of the biggest problems head on. 

The Bears gave center Drew Dalman a three-year, $42 million deal that included $28 million guaranteed. They traded a fourth-round draft pick to the Chiefs for guard Joe Thuney, and they also locked down guard Jonah Jackson from the Rams for a sixth rounder. Chicago went and did what they needed to do: upgrade. They haven’t had an offensive lineman named first-team All-Pro since 2006.

Williams finished last season with 3,541 yards and 20 touchdowns (team rookie record), but also had a 46.5 QBR, which ranked 28th in the league. This was all after believing he had a pretty great receiving trio in his corner. 

Johnson also went to work on that as well. Not only will this offense still feature DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and D'Andre Swift, but they also added Colston Loveland with their first-round pick and snagged Luther Burden with the 39th overall pick. We know what this offense could be with Johnson as the head coach. I mean, the Lions averaged at least 26 points per game in his three seasons calling plays  in Detroit. 

This does feel somewhat similar to the Stroud hype heading into his sophomore season, though. Offensive weapons were added, there was trust in the playcaller and an immediate assumption that better things are on the way. Hmmm.

If that offensive line holds up, Williams is going to have a plethora of options to throw to and really no excuse to not live up to those "generational talent" descriptions from last year. They're doing everything they can to help Williams pay off that QB8 ADP and I'm excited to watch (nervous, but excited).

Drake Maye, New England Patriots (Current ADP: QB15)

The quarterback who could really turn things around (for the better) this season is Drake Maye. On the one hand, the 2024 season felt like it was over really before it began, especially on the coaching side. Jerod Mayo led the team to a 4-13 season and ended up being the Patriots' first one-and-done coach since Rod Rust's 1-15 season in 1990.

Yikes.

On the other hand, Mayewill now be the QB1 for the Patriots and have a full season to showcase his skills with new head coach Mike Vrabel and new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Maye definitely flashed his skills at times during 2024 and even showed some rushing upside, which we always want to chase in fantasy football. Maye averaged 223 passing yards and 36 rushing yards in 10 complete starts last season. 

In the 12 games that he started, he completed 67% of his passes for 2,276 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He was able to do all that with arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL, too. No, really! According to PFF, New England's offensive line ranked 31st in pass blocking and 32nd in run blocking. His receivers also weren't top of the line either—Hunter Henry had 66 receptions and led the team with 674 yards. 

There was also hype for Ja'Lynn Polk, but according to ESPN's advanced receiver ratings, Polk ranked as the league's 111th-best WR out of 113 qualified pass catchers. WOOF. 

Thankfully, the Patriots addressed the wide receiver room this offseason and added Stefon Diggs. People complained about the money, but the Patriots had more than enough to spend. Even though he's coming off an ACL tear and will be 31 when the season starts, there's hope he can be that go-to target for Maye to rely on. Remember, the Patriots haven't had a 1,000-yard receiver since 2019 Julian Edelman. 

I wish they did a little bit more with the pass catchers, but at least the Patriots went into the draft and got Will Campbell, which solidifies four of the five offensive line spots (with Campbell reportedly starting at left tackle). They also drafted running back TreVeyon Henderson in the second-round and wide receiver Kyle Williams in the third-round, both of whom could develop into high-end fantasy starters.

At his current QB15 ADP on Underdog, it feels safe to take a swing on Maye, especially because of the upside he brings with his legs. This could be more of a sophomore boom. 

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