I think the 2024 Denver Broncos might break me.

Sure, I've played fantasy for a couple of decades. I understand variance and the range of outcomes. I try not to get emotional while partaking in a fake game about a game.

And yet… I am pre-tilting about what Sean Payton and this Denver Broncos offense are going to do to my emotional health this year. 

You might be thinking this is about me being a Denver Broncos fan. That, coincidentally, used to be the case. I grew up in Denver during the 90s when John Elway led our city to its first two Super Bowl victories. I would mimic the "mile-high salute" after TDs on the playground. I bought some Ed McCaffrey-branded Cheerios. I got Neil Smith's autograph at a local car dealership. You get the gist.

But my investment in the Broncos in 2024 isn't about rooting for laundry. I only care about my fantasy teams now. In fact, I felt nothing when the Broncos won their third Super Bowl in 2016. Fantasy ruined traditional fandom for me.

Instead, this is about a literal investment and where I've put my cold hard cash on the line in hundreds of best ball drafts this summer. This is why I'm worried:

Let me try to explain how we arrived at this horrifying screenshot and why I'm terrified about how this is going to end for me as I play Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde with my fantasy brain and my emotions…

The hook: This offense is cheap

The reason I have so much of the Broncos in drafts this year is solely because of the price. Courtland Sutton is the only Broncos player going in the top 100 picks of Underdog drafts. The presumed RB1, Javonte Williams, is available in Round 9. And two exciting young WRs, Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims, are completely free. 

The reason to make a concentrated bet on an offense like this is to enjoy the windfall of a surprise breakout offense. The Houston Texans offense was similarly cheap last year. The entire market thought they'd be a bottom-five team and that C.J. Stroud wasn't good. 

But the market was wrong, very wrong. Savvy drafters who built out a big bet on a cheap offense were rewarded with a handful of league-winning selections: Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Devin Singletary and Dalton Schultz. 

The catch: But they might be really bad

Let's be honest, Bo Nix is probably not the next Stroud. The Broncos are expected to suck in 2024. Vegas totals imply that they’ll be the third-lowest scoring offense in the NFL. The elite coach halo surrounding Sean Payton grows more and more dim by the day.

And after watching Payton defer to veterans like Samaje Perine and Tim Patrick in the team's first preseason game, I'm terrified my breakout thesis could be dead on arrival. 

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The hook: This team funnels points to the RB position

The reason I've taken one of Javonte Williams or Jaleel McLaughlin in 25% of my drafts is because of how much this offense is likely to funnel targets to the RB position:

• Last year, the Broncos led the league with 144 total targets for RBs
• Since 2006, 33 offenses have completed at least 120 passes to running backs. Eleven of them involved Payton-led teams.

On top of that, Payton hand-selected Nix to be their heir to the Drew Brees check-down throne. 

It seems very unlikely that at least one of these backs doesn't smash ADP.

The catch: Samaje Perine might stick around

On the other hand, what if this is a true three-way committee on a bottom-five offense? What if Samaje Perine doesn't get cut and it's a four-way committee?! What if Sean Payton evenly divides up the touches in a way that destroys any ceiling outcomes?? These are the questions that haunt me throughout the night.

It's all very possible, especially if Payton does fall in love with Perine or rookie Audric Estime. 

For this to work, we either need this backfield to consolidate to a maximum of two RBs or for the Broncos to be shockingly good.

Oh God…

The hook:  Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin have breakout written all over them

On paper, there is so much to like about these two as late-round selections.

Sean Payton traded up in the 2023 draft to select Marvin Mims and this year's draft to select Troy Franklin.

Mims was incredibly efficient early last year — in Week 2 he had 123 scrimmage yards and a TD and a big game in Week 3 — and then Payton galaxy-brained his usage to zero.

Franklin famously played with Nix at Oregon, where the duo combined for nearly 2,500 receiving yards and 23 TDs in their last two seasons.

Both of these two WRs fall into cohorts of players who break out at higher rates than other cohorts — 21-year-old rookie WRs (Franklin) and second-year WRs who flashed efficiency on limited opportunities in year one (Mims).

The catch: Payton loves dusty, old WRs

Last year Payton couldn't help himself and used Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson ahead of his 21-year-old speedster (Mims).

Why would that change this year?

Now he has souped-up versions of Humphrey and Johnson with Josh Reynolds and Tim Patrick, both of whom got significant playing time with the first-team offense in their Week 1 preseason game.

Mims was a second-round pick and could barely see the field. Why would Franklin, who was a fourth-round pick, be any different?

Oh god, what am I doing?

TLDR: The most likely scenario is the Denver offense sucks, Payton's fall from grace is complete and my Broncos' best ball bags turn to dust.

But roughly 10% of the time, they are this year's breakout offense. And I win all the money and hit the internet with a “mile-high salute.”

Please @god, one time.