Just over 25% of ESPN fantasy football championship teams were led by the breakout season from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

So, yeah. Finding this year’s version of JSN could be pretty important …

Look. I’m not banking on someone 100% replicating what we just saw from JSN. His 1,793 receiving yards were the eighth-most in a season in NFL history, while ranking fourth in targets (163), third in catches (119) and fourth in touchdowns (10) en route to an Offensive Player of the Year crown. But there are a handful of wideouts who check all of the boxes that will give them the best chance of doing something similar to what JSN did last season. 

Here’s what we’re looking for:

• Good at football (tends to help)
• Volume upside
• Vacated targets
• 3rd-4th round ADP

And believe it or not, there are multiple candidates that match that exact criteria, making this decision a lot more difficult. But after a lot of back and forth, I’ve made up my mind, and I’m planting my flag. 

This year’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be …

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

I mean, it sure as hell helps that the Eagles themselves believe this could happen, right?

Entering 2026, there are so many similarities between Smith and when JSN entered the 2025 campaign. For starters, both players were elite prospects and very good wide receivers. But this time last season, how many people truly believed that JSN was better than Smith? It’s not to say that Smith-Njigba is overrated or anything, but more of a reminder that Smith is an awesome player. Secondly, just like JSN a year ago, Smith is coming off draft boards in the early third round. And then there are the vacated targets, which greatly benefited JSN last year and should help Smith this season, giving us that volume upside we’re looking for.

Last offseason, the Seahawks moved on from both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, paving the way for JSN to see as many targets as humanly possible. But even the top JSN fan couldn’t predict his insane usage:

• 35% target share (1st)
• 31% TPRR (2nd)
• 42% end zone targets (6th)
• 47% air yards (3rd)
• 7.8 first-read targets per game (2nd)

Now I won’t lie. It would take a lot for Smith to see a target share of at least 30% this season. But, like JSN from last year, Smith is set to instantly become his team’s WR1 following the shocking, completely out-of-the-blue trade of A.J. Brown. 

Since 2022, “Skinny Batman” has been more of a Robin in the Philadelphia passing attack. During that span, Smith has averaged 7.1 targets per game (26th), while ranking 15th in target share (23.5%). He’s also posted TPRR rates of 22%, 19%, 20% and 22%. We did see a 136-target season from Smith back in 2023, leading to 95 catches, 1,196 yards, seven touchdowns and a WR9 fantasy finish. That right there is proof that if Smith can see borderline WR1 volume, he can post fantasy WR1 production. 

With Brown now in New England, that coveted WR1 volume will follow. Over the last three years, Smith has been sporting a 28% TPRR with Brown off the field, which would easily be his highest TPRR rate over an entire season. Meanwhile, in five games with Brown sidelined since 2022, Smith’s averages are, as you’d expect, strong:

• 9.0 targets
• 6.2 receptions
• 87.8 receiving yards
• 16.2 PPR PPG
• 31.4% TPRR

Now the Eagles do have more depth than they’ve had in years, which seems important when you trade away your best receiver. Adding Makai Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks, Eli Stowers and Hollywood Brown does make it at least possible that your passing attack isn’t quite as concentrated. But Smith will be the unquestioned top target in this offense, while the new scheme will hopefully allow him to see more designed looks.

Philadelphia hired Sean Mannion as its new offensive coordinator this offseason. Mannion comes from Green Bay and the Matt LaFleur/Sean McVay coaching tree. This is terrific news for Smith and the Eagles offense, going from a stationary, unimaginative passing attack to one that utilizes movement and creativity. Last season, the Eagles utilized shift-motion just 44% of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in football. The Packers, meanwhile, ranked eighth at 59%. And over the past two seasons, Smith has seen a total of 28 targets from motion, which ranks 31st among wideouts during that stretch. A potential uptick in pre-snap motion and designed targets should alleviate any concerns some may have regarding Smith’s ability to truly operate as an alpha on the outside. 

The bump in creativity will be more evident post-snap, too. Last year, Kevin Patullo’s route concepts made it so the wide receivers were essentially asked to win on their own more often than not. And the routes themselves were predictable. 28.9% of Smith’s routes were hitches, the second-highest rate in all of football, and another 19.7% were go routes. That means that nearly half of his routes were either hitches or straight vertical routes. Smith is an elite contested-catch wideout, but I’m excited to see him get more opportunities to make plays over the middle of the field. 

Even though he’s over 27 years old, I really don’t believe we’ve seen Smith even reach his final form as a player. The usage and deployment we are about to see from him are incredibly exciting, and while I would be shocked if he flirted with JSN’s 35% target share, I do think 28-30% is entirely possible, especially when you consider he’s seen over 30% of the targets with Brown off the field over the last few seasons. The Eagles' low passing volume may be viewed as a concern, but JSN just took his massive leap in a Seattle offense that ranked eighth in neutral script rush rate (46.5%), just ahead of the Eagles. 

Guys like Ladd McConkey, Rome Odunze and Emeka Egbuka all stand out as viable candidates. But all three players have arguably more target competition than Smith, who I also think is just a better wide receiver. Don’t draft Smith expecting 1,800 yards and a top-three fantasy finish among wide receivers.

But if anyone has a chance to emerge as the next elite fantasy wide receiver, my money is on Smith.

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