Hitting on a sleeper WR can feel a lot like winning the lottery.

At first glance, they seem random. Raise your hand if you saw Jauan Jennings’ 46.5-point outburst coming before Week 3 last season. C’mon, put your hand down. We needed a revenge narrative to predict Jerry Jeudy setting a career-high in yards against Denver. However, in reality, there are some indicators we can use to point us in the right direction.

Let's dive into a trio of sleepers that come with these indicators that make them prime wide receiver sleepers for 2025.

Sleeper Wide Receivers for Fantasy Football 2025

Cedric Tillman, Browns

I can understand wanting to avoid any part of the Browns’ passing game. But Cedric Tillman can quickly vault out of the top-60 WRs by looking at his usage in ’24 and forecasting (wish-casting?) some of Cleveland’s offseason moves.

Let’s focus on last year to start. After Amari Cooper went to Buffalo, the former Day 2 pick instantly earned a starting role. And the job wasn’t just about him getting a cardio workout each week. Tillman was second in air yards (419) and total targets (32) in an offense featuring two veteran WRs (and a pass-catching TE). Along with Cooper, Elijah Moore is also looking for a new home, lending credence to Tillman reclaiming his WR2 position. Nevertheless, our collective pessimism will (and should) persist if the main issue with Cleveland’s passing game doesn’t change.

A switch under center could be the tide that lifts all boats. Jameis Winston alone brought the Browns from dead last in yards per drive to league-average. If we see a clear shift in personnel, stashing Tillman will pay dividends in 2025.

Josh Downs, Colts

The last we see of an offense shapes our view of them for the next year. In Josh Downs’ case, we watched the sophomore catch passes from a scattershot QB. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor was stacking one 100-yard game after the next for a month. And yet, even with Anthony Richardson as his QB, Downs was the best Colts WR to roster. 

• Targets per Route Run (with Richardson): 26.9% (Downs), 24.7% (Michael Pittman)
• Yards per Route Run: 2.26, 1.81
• YAC per Reception: 7.9, 4.1

So, let’s assume Richardson claims victory over Daniel Jones in the brewing QB battle (even though it's seeming less and less likely). Downs missed three games, finished as the WR35, and has a WR48 ADP. But consider if Jones gets another shot as a starter. The former Giant attempted the 11th-most passes to the slot before New York pulled him. Either QB can play to Downs’ strengths, making him an ideal target in PPR leagues.

Darnell Mooney, Falcons

I’ll re-use my “what we saw last year” adage and apply it to Atlanta.

In Week 18, Michael Penix locked in on Drake London 18 (!!!) times. London’s back-to-back 100-yard outings to close out the year solidified our priors on the USC product becoming a WR1. At the same time, after accruing more yards in ’24 than the previous two years combined, Darnell Mooney was on the sideline with a shoulder injury. Consequently, one of these WRs has a top-10 ADP. 

The other? WR51.

Even with Kirk Cousins starting, a London-Mooney duo was a formidable pairing. Chicago’s old WR1 was back up to a 21.5% target share and tied with Mike Evans and George Pickens in contested catches. Mooney remained the WR2 after Penix took over. However, the passing volume was cut in half (16.8 attempts per game vs. 32.4) for the two games in which Mooney and Penix overlapped. With an offseason to get in sync, Mooney should be a prime beneficiary of a revamped passing game. 

Marvin Mims, Broncos

Remember Marvin Mims earning Day 2 draft capital, HC Sean Payton (and us) hyping him up as a rookie, and then watching Mims fall behind Lil’Jordan Humphrey in playing time? I haven’t forgotten.

But I’m willing to let bygones be bygones. Payton regained his mojo as a playcaller. Bo Nix exceeded expectations as a rookie. Plus, we saw more from Mims as the season progressed.

• Target Share: 3.0% (Weeks 1-4), 16.8% (Weeks 15-18)
• Route Rate: 17.0%, 42.9%
• First Downs per Route Run: 0.0%, 36.4%

I referenced the first downs per route run stat, as most will remember Mims as one of Denver’s deep threats. He had the same number of explosive plays as Courtland Sutton over the final month of the season (four). But only Sutton generated more receiving first downs. No other Broncos’ WR earned more slot targets. Accordingly, his production would be more sustainable with an expanded role. And after posting consecutive games with multi-touchdown performances, it’d be reasonable to expect more opportunities for Mims in 2025.

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