Context matters.

I know, it sounds simple. Almost too easy. But think about how you felt after Sunday Night Football. It had been about seven months since we had watched live football. Getting a win right out of the gate was on our minds. In other words, we wanted points! However, there are elements of the game outside of who has the ball (or who it’s going to) worth considering.

Offensive lines still need to block. A better unit might’ve given a guy like Ashton Jeanty more rushing lanes. Or a QB like Joe Burrow some time to look downfield. They’re things that affect the guys on our rosters that we don’t worry about until they occur. But in the case of WR coverages, let’s check in on some that should be on our radar.

WR/CB Matchups to Target For Fantasy Football In Week 2

Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Bears

The Lions looked like everyone’s offseason concerns about then-OC Ben Johnson leaving for Chicago were valid. Jared Goff was under siege on 37.2% of his dropbacks. Detroit’s running game totaled 44 yards by their RBs. But at least some things still worked.

Despite Goff having to focus on his checkdown options, Amon-Ra St. Brown provided the biggest impact. The veteran WR picked up the most receiving first downs (4) and generated just one fewer explosive play than Sam LaPorta. St. Brown’s 47.5% slot rate highlights his continued role as the Lions’ inside man, which sets up well for him in Week 2.

Not only was the Bears’ defensive front league-average in putting pressure on opposing passers, their secondary’s greatest weakness was on the interior. Chicago gave up the ninth-most yards to the slot in Week 1. While also allowing a TD, the extra time for Goff should be enough to get him back in rhythm with his WR1.

Emeka Egbuka at Texans

I could watch the highlights of Emeka Egbuka’s debut all day.

Two takeaways from Egbuka’s game-winning catch. First, that was just his sixth target of the game. For as big a result, the former Buckeye had the same number of looks as Sterling Shepard. Shepard even had more air yards. So, a role expansion should be in store for the Bucs’ rookie. The other thing to notice is his pre-snap alignment.

Egbuka ran the touchdown route from the outside. However, he played 44.2% of his snaps from the slot. His versatility was a part of his appeal throughout the draft process. Plus, Egbuka is a menace when faced with zone coverage. His 2.31 YPRR against zone led the team. Coincidentally, Houston used zone concepts on 68.0% of their defensive snaps in Week 1. They also surrendered the most yards to slot receivers. With the potential for more work, Egbuka has to be a top option for Week 2.

Sneaky Matchups To Target

Kayshon Boutte at Dolphins

I kept thinking (wishing?) some of the savvy sideline receptions for the Patriots were by Stefon Diggs. Nope. It was Kayshon Boutte.

Boutte falls into the “obscure WR” category. Diggs got all of the offseason hype. If not the former Texan, either Drake Maye or TreVeyon Henderson had our eye. However, Boutte secured the WR1 job with 39.7% of the air yards on a team-leading 8 targets. More importantly, this week’s matchup gives him a shot at a repeat performance.

Miami’s secondary let the Colts’ receivers pick up 9.3 yards per catch (ninth-most in Week 1). Even better for Boutte, the Dolphins’ perimeter CBs were the biggest offenders. At 123.0 yards allowed, the Colts’ outside WRs had the eighth-most yards of any perimeter unit. Maye is already looking Boutte’s way. Against a weak defense, he’ll capitalize again.

Ray-Ray McCloud at Vikings

Admittedly, I’m recommending Ray-Ray McCloud primarily based on the attrition at the position for the Falcons. 

Drake London and Darnell Mooney are nursing shoulder injuries. McCloud (and Casey Washington) are the healthy options at receiver for Michael Penix Jr.. But it’s McCloud’s defensive matchup that gives the veteran the edge as a sneaky start.

McCloud lined up in the slot on 59.6% of his snaps. On top of allowing the most receptions to inside receivers, the Vikings allowed the third-most yards to WRs aligning from the interior. Assuming we get limited versions of the Falcons’ top options, McCloud has some viability as a FLEX option in deeper PPR leagues.

WR/CB Matchups to Avoid For Fantasy Football In Week 2

Tetairoa McMillan at Cardinals 

On the bright side, Tetairoa McMillan already has Bryce Young’s trust.

McMillan’s 9 targets were a team high, along with his 40.5% target share. But Young’s play should have us all concerned. We hadn’t seen the Panthers’ QB1 below a 35.0% passing success rate since Week 2 of last season. HC Dave Canales benched him before their next game. Even more concerning is Young’s upcoming bout against the Cardinals.

While the Cardinals put up only a league-average pressure rate (27.3%), their secondary kept a majority of the opposing passing production in front of them. The Cardinals’ coverage group allowed only 3 receptions on passes of 10 air yards or more. They gave up just two explosive plays. We’re already concerned about Young’s ability to either stay upright or deliver an accurate pass (a 63.0% catchable target rate for McMillan). With the potential for a stingy defensive matchup for McMillan, fantasy managers should adjust expectations for the Panthers’ WR1.

Jaylen Waddle vs. Patriots

If you have any piece of the Dolphins’ offense on your roster, you know how Week 1 unfolded for Miami.

Tua Tagovailoa looked flustered. The passing game had explosive elements to it. Tyreek Hill was going through it on the sideline. However, the larger problem was the expanded passing tree.

• De'Von Achane: 7 (targets)
• Tyreek Hill: 6
• Malik Washington: 5
• Jaylen Waddle: 5
• Tanner Conner: 4
• Ollie Gordon: 2
• Dee Eskridge: 2
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 1

We expected a concentrated distribution with Hill and Waddle (and Achane) at the top. Not seven different pass catchers with at least two targets. So, based on Week 1 alone, Waddle has more competition with fewer projectable passing yards. Even with Geno Smith notching over 300 passing yards against New England last Sunday, Waddle’s diminished role makes him an avoid until we see a noticeable improvement in the passing game.

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