Week 2 was a tale of extremes. Teams were either dealing with injuries or putting up eye-popping performances. It didn’t feel like there was any middle ground. As a result, Week 3 presents us with an interesting challenge.

We’ve got two games of data to consider. The amount alone is enough to invite scrutiny toward any conclusion. Plus, the weight of our offseason priors still holds some sway. 

In either case, with what knowledge I can glean from the tape and underlying data, I’ve got another batch of receiver matchups to use as a tiebreaker for the upcoming slate of games.

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Matchups to Target

DJ Moore vs. Jaylon Jones

The positives? DJ Moore is still a WR1. His 28.6% target share ranks 11th among all WRs, and this is with talented (albeit injured) WRs flanking him. Even better, despite the added competition, Moore’s route rate, air yards and TPRR align with 2023. But, of course, there’s the other side of the coin.

Caleb Williams has been … suboptimal in his rookie debut. He’s seen pressure at the eighth-highest rate and notched the 32nd-best adjusted completion rate. So, the problem is partly personnel with a dash of Williams getting acclimated to the NFL. Both need time to resolve. Week 3 presents an opportunity to get on track.

First, Indianapolis is dealing with injuries along their defensive front. The Colts were already 21st in pressure rate and will be (potentially) down two starters. Plus, their secondary has been forgiving to perimeter WRs.

• Week 1 (when lined up outside): Romeo Doubs, 3-62-0
• Week 2: Nico Collins, 8-117-0

Moore has run 73.6% of his perimeter routes from the left side of the field. Jaylon Jones, the Colts’ starting CB, has played 85 of 137 snaps at right defender. In both contests to start the season, Jones has allowed at least one explosive play in each and allowed a 112.1 passer rating when targeted. With Indianapolis’ defense (and offense, to a degree) reeling, Week 3 should be the time for Williams and Moore to link up for a big day through the air.

Amari Cooper vs. Deonte Banks

Let’s start here.

In the immortal words of Ian Hartitz, “Sheesh.”

Amari Cooper has amassed 243 air yards in two games. Calvin Ridley, Malik Nabers, Jameson Williams, and Nico Collins are the only four ahead of him. And they’re all good for fantasy! Well, mostly. Either way, with this much usage, you’d think Cooper would be in the WR2 conversation. But there are other issues.

The first is intrinsic to Cooper’s play. As highlighted in the clip, his drops have been devastating. By their depths alone, his current receiving yards total (5) would be 65 (and a touchdown). Deshaun Watson’s inaccuracy (-4.0% completion percentage over expected) is another challenge. However, facing the Giants secondary tends to cure most ailments.

New York’s defensive front ranks above average in pressure and blitz rate. I’d say that’d be an issue for Watson and Cooper, but funnily enough, it works in their favor.

• All Passes: 7.7 (air yards per attempt)
• When Pressured: 10.7
• When Blitzed: 9.6

Big-game hunting has been a part of Watson’s operating system since he came into the league. Coincidentally, Cooper will likely draw the G-Men defenders that would surrender chunk gains through the air. Deonte Banks and Cor’Dale Flott have both watched opposing wideouts glide into the end zone through two weeks. 

With Cooper primarily playing on the outside, expect Watson to look deep to Cooper and allow the veteran receiver to convert those air yards into fantasy points on Sunday.

Sneaky Matchups

Jordan Whittington vs. Deommodore Lenoir

I’ll caveat this play by saying we don’t know how Sean McVay will run a “Puka-and-Kupp-less” offense. During the McVay era of L.A. ball, they’ve been an 11-personnel spread-and-shred aerial attack. I’m assuming that holds in Week 3.

If I’m right, we’ve got a WR trio of Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Whittington, and either Tyler Johnson or Tutu Atwell. The “or” for Johnson and Atwell comes from their second-half route rates with Kupp out of commission.

• Robinson: 90.9%
• Whittington: 90.9%
• Johnson: 45.5%
• Atwell: 63.6%

Only the first two saw the most snaps. Additionally, Whittington played the most snaps from the interior (72.7% slot snap rate). Fortunately, that’s one of the best ways to attack the 49ers.

Despite ranking 21st in pressure rate, if the 49ers’ pass rush gets past your offensive linemen, it happens fast. Their average 2.3-second time to pressure is fifth-best in the league. Accordingly, opposing offenses have gotten the ball out faster (13th-quickest). 

Whittington was the only WR used closest to the LOS. And even with the short-yardage usage, his 2.2 YPRR instantly put him ahead of Robinson and Johnson. With the offense likely needing to keep up with the 49ers on the scoreboard, Whittington offers sneaky upside in what should be a pass-first approach from the Rams in Week 3.

Brandin Cooks vs. Brandon Stephens/Marlon Humphrey

I’m not worried about the situation, but I wanted to add in this context ahead of Sunday.

CeeDee Lamb still played 58 snaps in Week 2, so there’s no real concern about his Week 3 availability. However, if a few more looks were to go elsewhere, we’d know why Brandin Cooks saw more action.

Admittedly, Cooks’ drop in air yards and targets from Week 1 is concerning. However, I’m willing to chalk up the lack of opportunity to an old-fashioned beat down by the Saints. KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Brooks saw more run. After falling behind 35-16 by halftime, their original game plan (and their hopes of winning) likely went out the window.

Regardless, Cooks still has an 82.5% route rate (almost identical to Lamb) on the season. Plus, in Week 1 (when everything made sense for the Cowboys), Cooks was the only non-Lamb WR with more than 50 air yards. Given his connection with Dak Prescott, it’s fair to assume he gets back to form in Week 3. Cooks’ matchup should also keep him as one of Dak’s primary reads.

Brandon Stephens has been the Ravens’ primary perimeter corner, playing all 103 of his snaps from the right side of the defense. He allowed a 100% catch rate in Week 1 (for 43 yards) and then another 87 yards to the Raiders. With Turpin, Brooks and Tolbert primarily earning looks from the interior, Cooks’ strong matchup outside may be the key to the Cowboys getting back on track this weekend.

Matchups to Avoid

Jaylen Waddle vs. Riq Woolen/Tre Brown

A QB switch usually points to a shift in the offense. With Malik Willis stepping in for Jordan Love, the Packers went from a balanced offense to a run-first attack with a -31.1% pass rate over expectation. HC Mike McDaniel might not take as drastic of an approach, but protecting your (backup) QB makes sense.

Either way, Jaylen Waddle has an uphill battle to fight in a Tua-less passing attack. Understanding Skylar Thompson came in unexpectedly, the fourth-year receiver saw no passes thrown his way by the Dolphins’ QB2. Waddle has a 14.4-yard aDOT. Thompson could only muster 9.1 air yards per attempt in relief last Thursday. Simply put, they’ll need time to get on the same page.

It’d be one thing if Waddle played on the inside more. The softer coverage or shorter route concept would enable high-percentage plays for the two to connect. However, Waddle has played only 18 snaps from the slot. That’s Tyreek Hill’s (29 snaps) and Braxton Berrios’ (27) territory. So, with a backup QB and tougher deployment, Waddle has to face the perimeter coverage of the Seahawks.

Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon rank 2nd and 23rd in PFF’s Pass Coverage grade. They’ve allowed a combined 53 yards in coverage. And, no, that’s not a per-game stat. That’s 53 yards through two games (plus a turnover). Without a better outlook for Waddle, looking at other options should be a part of your approach for Week 3.

Quentin Johnston vs Joey Porter Jr.

The early-season returns for Quentin Johnston have been surprisingly positive. After a disappointing rookie campaign, Johnston has had back-to-back games with an +80% route rate and 20% target share. With a healthy 39.7% of Justin Herbert’s air yards, Johnston appears to be on the development path we expected for him in ’23.

But his Week 3 matchup may slow things down.

First, Herbert’s ankle injury kept him out of practice on Wednesday. Second, Johnston primarily plays on the outside. He’s logged two snaps from the interior. As a result, he’ll see a healthy dose of Joey Porter Jr. this weekend.

As one of Pittsburgh’s starting outside corners, Porter has allowed only three receptions on the season. Plus, he’s been exceptional at limiting YAC (3.7 YAC per reception) if an opposing receiver hauls in a pass. The silver lining for Johnston is that Courtland Sutton, who’s a similar size and build, was able to win contested catch attempts against Porter Jr. last week. Herbert has been willing to put Johnston in similar situations, but fantasy managers would be wise to avoid the potential volatility unless they fall behind in their Week 3 matchup.

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