Your Last Chance To Add This Breakout TE

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:

We touched on it briefly yesterday, but we need to have an extended discussion on what is shaping up to be the tight end breakout of the year.

And best of all, there's an extremely high likelihood that he's available on waivers considering that he's currently on only 3% of Yahoo rosters.

Over the last five weeks, Chargers rookie TE Oronde Gadsden has seen his route participation balloon from 28% all the way to 77%. Over the past two weeks, he's averaged a hearty 20% target share and a Utilization score of 95.

That's the highest UR score for any tight end not named Trey McBride With Jacoby Brissett At QB.

The positive utilization resulted in a massive 7-164-1 line vs. the Colts in Week 7. That 164 is the most yards by a rookie TE in 40 years.

There’s also no reason to think the fantasy points won’t keep pouring in. As you can see from the tape, he’s not just earning targets—he’s racking up yards after the catch.

What's particularly impressive is that he's done this despite facing "competition" from competent veteran TEs in Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin. Neither of them are hurt, they've just been completely dusted by the exciting rookie.

Sure, Justin Herbert won't drop back 55 times every week and there are three rock-solid WRs on this squad who will continue to command targets, but it would be irresponsible not to make a strong bid for Gadsden on waivers this week. TEs like this on high-powered offenses don’t come around often.

For more Week 8 waiver adds, check out Kendall's piece here:

YOUR WEEK 8 WAIVER WIRE GUIDE

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About Last Night …

The back-to-back shootouts didn’t quite materialize. Jahmyr Gibbs’ huge night in a 24-9 Detroit win reminded a national audience that he’s one of the best all-purpose RBs in the game. But if you needed Baker Mayfield for a comeback, unfortunately it did not happen. The nightcap was a tough one for East Coast Dads with a final gun at 1:30 a.m. ET, but the Seahawks gutted out a 27-19 win. Here are some fantasy stars on the night.

Jahmyr Gibbs … Gone! Did his 218 total yards and 2 TDs fuel your Monday Night Miracle?
Bad News for Mike Evans. Get well soon for a longtime fantasy favorite.
Tez Johnson highlight reel. On one play.
Sun God made it look easy. Totaled 20.6 points.
JSN is a different kind of Beast Mode in Seattle, going 8-123-1 for 26.3 points.
Zach Charbonnet (49 rush yards and 2 TDs) keeps Seattle’s RB1 a mystery.
A Woody Marks TD sighting.

HOW CLOSE IS JAHMYR GIBBS TO RB1?

Editors’ Picks

Week 7 is in the books. Who’s ready to look toward Week 8? Get a head start with some of the latest Fantasy Life content to come through the Week 8 pipeline …

Week 8 DST Streamers

Cam Ward has been a printing press for opposing DSTs this season, and now the turnover-hungry Colts get their turn at the rookie QB. Jonathan breaks down their matchup and other viable streamers.

Week 8 Positional Streamers

Bye-Maggedon is here, and you’re likely staring at a hole or two … or three in your roster. John Laghezza breaks down the best streamers at each position.

Players To Drop In Week 8

The Justin Fields highs have been high, but the lows have been lowww. Geoff Ulrich breaks down why it’s time to cut bait with Fields and more ahead of Week 8.

The #1 Utilization Takeaway From Week 7 is …

🚀 Travis Hunter's playing time is trending up.

Hunter has increased his route participation in four consecutive games, culminating with a season-high 89% route participation rate in Week 7 against the Rams. The No. 2 overall pick delivered a season-best 92 Utilization Score and 24.1 fantasy points.

Hunter's Utilization Score for the season is up nine points over the last four contests, and he is averaging 11.6 points per game.

Ultimately, this remains a situation that offers a wide range of outcomes. No one wants to hear that—we want absolutes. The takes must be hot.

But the truth is that my No. 1 inspiration behind creating the Utilization Score was a hope for a world where we can discuss a range of outcomes, and then use that information to make informed decisions. It's so tiring being caught up in the week-to-week swings that everyone wants to overreact to with big takes.

The recent trend for Hunter is definitely a positive. However, he also still has an underlying target share of 19%, which is backed by his 19% targets per route run (TPRR). TPRR is an incredibly valuable stat for players like Hunter because playing time obviously impacts your ability to earn targets.

What we would hope to see is a TPRR between 23 and 25% on the season. That would point to more targets in a larger role. His 19% has historically aligned with WR3 to WR4 caliber players.

So, what does the Utilization Score have to say about Hunter for the rest of the season (ROS)? Let's look at a few scenarios.

Note: Want to know how the Utilization Score works? Read this.

» Scenario 1: Hunter's role over the last two games is here to stay.

Over the last two weeks in a near full-time role, Hunter has a 22% target share and a Utilization Score of 69. Over that span he has averaged 14.8 points per game. His 92 historical comps have averaged 13.4 points with 41% climbing inside the top-24 WRs.

WR1 to WR12 seasons: 2%
WR13 to WR24 seasons: 39%
WR25 to WR36 seasons: 40%
WR37 to WR48 seasons: 18%

In this runout for Hunter, he is most likely a WR2 or a WR3. He has an outlier shot at a WR1 campaign, but that is outweighed by a larger chance for a WR4 season. This is the scenario I am using to evaluate Hunter.

» Scenario 2: Hunter expands his role and plays better after the bye.

This scenario is harder to project, but there are definitely runouts where Hunter gets better as we go in addition to his uptick in playing time. I would argue that is partially captured in Scenario 1 where we are giving Hunter credit for his uptick in targets over the last two weeks.

Additionally, we have historical data that tells us even first-round draft picks as a whole don't make dramatic strides in Weeks 8 to 18 versus what we know about them from Weeks 1 to 7.

While we have seen these rookies grow their roles with a 12% improvement in snaps, their fantasy production went down 9%. The obvious gotcha in this analysis is that I am using draft round rather than a top-six or top-ten pick, so it isn't perfect.

Since 2015, there have been 15 WRs taken in the top-12 picks of the NFL Draft (top third of the first round). This is how they looked in the first seven weeks versus the rest of the season as rookies (minimum of four games in each sample):

Fantasy points per game: 13.3 v. 10.9
Routes: 80% v. 77%
Targets: 22% v. 20%

If you believe Hunter will buck these trends, it isn't a bad take, given how much he has grown his role over the last two games. Fantasy football is an outliers game. The question is how bullish you want to get knowing that Scenario 1 is already baking some of that into the equation.

That makes Scenario 2 a your-call situation, but the data doesn't have a strong lean towards a massive breakout. My personal advice on this scenario would be looking at him as a WR2 with WR3 as his floor, plus slightly more WR1 upside. But that's just me.

» Scenario 3: Hunter's role experiences volatility based on playing offense and defense.

No one wants to hear this (including me), but we can't discount this as a viable scenario. We also had injuries to Brian Thomas Jr. and Dyami Brown in Week 7 that limited their playing time when Hunter climbed to his season-high in route participation.

In this scenario, I will still give Hunter credit for a more significant role by using his last four games, but not overweighting his near full-time role over the last two games and his boom performance in Week 7. That gives us a Utilization Score of 59, where his 78 comps averaged 11 fantasy points per game. We saw 31% of them reach top-36 status.

WR1 to WR12 seasons: 0%
WR13 to WR24 seasons: 1%
WR25 to WR36 seasons: 29%
WR37 to WR48 seasons: 42%
WR48+ seasons: 28%

» Continue on for the rest of Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report ahead of Week 8.

MORE UTILIZATION NOTES FROM WEEK 7

Early Week 8 Rankings: Jalen Hurts is Flying High

Remember when the Eagles were running the ball too much for fantasy managers’ liking? That was so three weeks ago. While no one is going to mistake them for Tom Brady and the 2007 Patriots, after Jalen Hurts has thrown for at least 280 yards in three straight games—with 6 TD passes—the health of this passing game is certainly much to the liking of the fantasy community.

Ian Hartitz dropped his early Week 8 rankings, highlighting players like Hurts, Javonte Williams, as well as the best and worst schedules for wide receivers rest of season. There are also some tight end names who will become very familiar the next couple months. ⬇️

WHAT WRs HAVE THE BEST REMAINING SCHEDULES?