Years ago, before I was lucky enough to be a full-time writer in the industry, I was a committed contributor to RotoViz, where the unrivaled and brilliant Shawn Siegele released the first Zero RB article.

Shortly after publishing this landmark piece, Shawn finished first—and second!!!—In the NFFC Primetime Main Event, and the legend of the man behind the Money in the Banana Stand was born.

To borrow from Christopher Marlowe, “Was this the antifragility that launched a thousand ships?”

Indeed it was.

But the question remains: Can Zero RB still be a winning strategy in 2025?

I don't see why it can't be.

Antifragility and the Theory Behind Zero RB

The idea of Zero RB is based in part on the work of Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a mathematician, philosopher, writer, and profitable options trader), whose work (especially the books Black Swan and Antifragile) dives into the concepts of randomness and chaos.

Given how random and chaotic much of football and fantasy football can be—particularly with injuries—the applicability of Taleb's ideas is apparent.

In Shawn's theorizing of it, value-based drafting (aka, "VBD" … or the balanced way many people tend to draft) is fragile: When injury strikes—usually at the RB position—a team is more or less finished.

Compared to VBD, the Robust RB approach is highly resilient: When an injury hits, fantasy managers are normally able to soldier on because they've invested heavily in the RB position, especially early in the draft.

But resilience will only get you so far, and what if, instead of being resilient, a fantasy team could actually benefit from randomness and chaos? What if it could thrive under volatility and disorder? What if it could improve from the shock of injury?

That's to say: What if it could be antifragile?

Injuries Happen in the NFL

Regrettably but predictably, injuries happen in the NFL.

And given how frequently they touch the ball and how forcefully they are hit and tackled, RBs experience injuries at an enhanced rate.

We know this, which is why we assign fewer games to RBs in our 2025 fantasy football projections.

From a Zero RB perspective, VBD drafters assemble their teams as if injuries don't happen or they can't be accounted for fully.

At least Robust RB drafters acknowledge the existence of injuries—but they build their teams as if they're constructing a wall to keep the flood out … and they forget that water, one way or another, usually wins, whether it's through the foundation, via cracks in the wall, or over the top.

But Zero RB drafters are contrarians who seek to benefit from and leverage the storm of RB injuries that an NFL season tends to bring: They ignore the expensive RBs in Rounds 1-4 (and maybe even Rounds 5-6 if they're feeling really freaky), and then afterward they address the position by focusing on young breakout candidates, underappreciated receiving backs, and above-average backups in attractive offenses.

Immediately after the draft, these teams tend to look suspect—but as the season progresses and the composition of backfields change, these teams often look better and better.

So, can Zero RB be a winning strategy in 2025?

As long as—for one reason or another—there are RBs going after Round 4 who significantly outperform their ADPs, then, yes, Zero RB can win leagues this year.

Potential League-Winning RBs in 2025

All of this raises the question: Who are the potential league-winning RBs available after Round 4?

I mean, in the end, a lot of fantasy football always comes down to player evaluation.

So here are the RBs I like available in Rounds 5-10, one for each round, accompanied with my projections and ordered by Underdog ADP (as of Tue., 7/1, via our Fantasy Football ADP tool).

By the way, our 2025 fantasy football rankings (applicable for best ball, redraft, and Guillotine Leagues), are available via our FantasyLife+ package. Check it out.

All fantasy points are half PPR.

Round 5

RB Alvin Kamara (Saints)

• ADP: RB19 (57.9 overall)
• Projection: RB8 (219.7 points)

I acknowledge that Alvin Kamara is ancient by NFL standards (he turns 30 years old later in July). And his offense could be bad with QB Tyler Shough as the presumed starter. But last season, he had a position-high 9.3 Utilization Score (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and with that utilization, he put up 1,493 yards and eight TDs in 14 games.

I would love to get that kind of production in Round 5. Kamara is one of the 32 players I most want to draft this year.

Round 6

RB David Montgomery (Lions)

• ADP: RB23 (70.9)
• Projection: RB23 (177.1)

David Montgomery has an incredibly high ceiling in the event of an injury to Jahmyr Gibbs.

And if Gibbs doesn't get injured? I would still expect Montgomery to get the 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10-plus TDs he's had in each of the past two seasons. That's a great floor.

He's one of my 2025 redraft Freedman's Favorites.

Round 7

RB D'Andre Swift (Bears)

• ADP: RB26 (75.3)
• Projection: RB14 (200.7)

Many drafters aren't high on D'Andre Swift. And I must admit that I was initially surprised by my projection of him.

But he's coming off a career-best 1,345-yard season, and in 2022—his one previous year with new HC Ben Johnson as a playcaller—he averaged a career-high 5.5 yards per opportunity.

On top of that, the Bears offense should be improved in 2025 thanks to the maturation of second-year QB Caleb Williams, and the interior of the offensive line should be better with the addition of LG Joe Thuney, C Drew Dalman, and RG Jonah Jackson.

Round 8

RB Brian Robinson (Commanders)

• ADP: RB30 (88.7)
• Projection: RB27 (146.5)

If you're looking for sexy, Brian Robinson isn't your man … but he has 2,059 scrimmage yards over the past two years, and he's the goal-line guy for an ascending offense led by QB Jayden Daniels and OC Kliff Kingsbury.

And I love Austin Ekeler, but I doubt the 30-year-old change-of-pace option is going to steal too much work from Robinson.

Round 9

RB Tyrone Tracy (Giants)

• ADP: RB34 (104.5)
• Projection: RB26 (148.2)

The team just drafted the exciting-ish Cam Skattebo … but the Giants selected him on Day 3. Come on.

Tyrone Tracy had 1,123 yards and six TDs on 192 carries and 53 targets as a rookie last year, and the Giants should be better on offense this year with the addition of QBs Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart.

Round 10

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

• ADP: RB38 (120.5)
• Projection: RB30 (140.6)

I'll say it: I'm skeptical about TreVeyon Henderson. I know that the Patriots just selected him at No. 38 in the draft, but he profiles more as a change-of-pace option than a workhorse. 

I acknowledge that he's talented, but I fear he could be pushed into a Shane Vereen-like role under OC Josh McDaniels.

So that means I think the market is too low on Rhamondre Stevenson, who has 3,287 yards on 573 carries and 180 targets over the past three years.

I expect him to lead the Pats in opportunities—and their offense should be better this year with the development of second-year QB Drake Maye.