Welcome back to the guillotine league mailbag! This will be the last mailbag of the season as we enter the final bidding period and the guillotine league “playoffs.” 

I will offer a refresher on how the playoffs work as well as some strategy going into the final bidding period. We will also talk about Isaac Guerendo, Jameis Winston, and last week’s most chopped players. 

Do you have a guillotine league-related question? Tag @CartisParks_FL on X, and you might see your question answered!

Guillotine League Week 14 Strategy

How do the guillotine league playoffs work?

They aren’t exactly playoffs, but the format does change a bit once there are only four teams left. Teams eliminated in the final four and beyond won’t have their rosters go into the free agent pool; they will be eliminated from the league altogether. For example, if Jayden Daniels is rostered and is chopped (due to being on a bye) next week, you will not have the opportunity to bid on him. He, and every other player, on the chopped roster will be removed from the player pool.

That essentially means that this upcoming bidding period is the final one of the season. There will still be bidding periods, but no new players will become available from chopped teams. New players will only become available if they are dropped from other alive teams.

With this being the final bidding period, that means it’s time to spend whatever budget you have left. If you have the most budget remaining of all teams, that means you are guaranteed at least one player that you want. If you are a bit more vigilant, you should be able to fill out your roster for the playoff push. 

Knowing your opponents' budgets will help you, but knowing their roster makeup is also crucial for the final betting strategy. For example, did the Christian McCaffrey owner survive? Odds are he’s going to be focused on Isaac Guerendo to fill that hole. We will talk more about Guerendo later, but with only five teams remaining and the free agent pool as strong as it’s ever been, you should have a good idea of which players to target and whom your opponents want — or need.

But I cannot stress this enough: Spend your money! If you want to keep a couple bucks to spend in case of an emergency injury over the final weeks, that’s fine, but you don’t want to be chopped this late in the season with meaningful budget in your pocket. 

Still, remember there are multiple bidding periods. If you don’t get the players you wanted or are outbid in the first round, pay attention to who is still available in the second window. Teams’ budgets should be gutted at this point, so you should be able to scavenge the scraps. And with only five teams left, the scraps will be pretty good.

Those are the only changes in the guillotine league playoffs. It’s still survive and advance until the final two teams are left — then it essentially plays as a head-to-head matchup.

Is Isaac Guerendo a league-winner?

Probably not as much in a guillotine league as he might be in a standard league, but he should sleepwalk to 15+ touches per game. The rookie has two games this season with double-digit touches. In those games, he averaged 100 total yards on 7.7 yards per carry with a single score. 

He closes the season with matchups against the Bears (13th-most points allowed to running backs), Rams (10th), Dolphins (11th), and Lions (30th). He’s got a great schedule going forward up to championship week and will definitely help you get there. If you were a McCaffrey owner, I would prioritize getting Guerendo.

How should I manage players that still have a bye week? 

Frustratingly, there are six teams on bye in Week 14. Studs such as Courtland Sutton, Jonathan Taylor, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry, Nico Collins, and Joe Mixon will not be available to help you this week. 

Make sure you are set for this upcoming week before splurging on these guys, but if you are set then target endgame players like Jackson, Henry, and Collins. Again, this will be your last chance to bid on them.

I have no budget remaining, what matchups should I be looking to exploit and avoid?

With three quarters of the season complete, we know who is good and who is bad. I will list the top five and bottom five points allowed for each position and how many points they allow compared to average. You can use this to sneak in a less-sexy player or bench a stud against an elite offense. 

Quarterbacks

Great Matchups:

• Buccaneers (+5.9 points over average)
• Jaguars (+5.9)
• Bengals (+4.6)
• Cowboys (+3.6)
• Ravens (+3.1)

Poor Matchups:

• Steelers (-3.8)
• Dolphins (-3.7)
• Bears (-3.5)
• Bills (-2.8)
• Eagles (-2.5)

Running Backs

Great Matchups: 

• Panthers (+7.3)
• Jaguars (+6.0)
• Bills (+3.9)
• Giants (+3.4)
• 49ers (+3.4)

Poor Matchups:

• Chiefs (-7.4)
• Lions (-6.5)
• Vikings (-5.5)
• Eagles (-4.3)
• Texans (-3.9)

Wide Receivers

Great Matchups:

• Vikings (+7.9)
• Lions (+6.7)
• Ravens (+6.1)
• Jaguars (+5.8)
• Texans (+4.4)

Poor Matchups:

• Jets (-6.9)
• Dolphins (-5.5)
• Bears (-4.4)
• Bills (-4.3)
• Eagles (-4)

Tight Ends

Great Matchups:

• Bengals (+4.6)
• Panthers (+4.6)
• Raiders (+4.4)
• Chiefs (+4.3)
• Colts (+3.1)

Poor Matchups:

• Lions (-4.8)
• Giants (-4.3)
• 49ers (-2.8)
• Texans (-2.4)
• Jets (-2.1)

Who is the one player you want on your team going forward?

I want Josh Allen. His schedule is not the easiest, but he is playing some of the best ball of his career and his team is still in the mix for a first-round bye. Plus, when he puts up points you can assume your opponents aren't benefiting — no one this late in the season is likely to be starting Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, or Mack Hollins. 

With a quarterback like Joe Burrow, who will be feeding Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, those points will likely go to your opponents (unless you’re stacking, which I don’t recommend this late into the season). Those points will be more valuable to them compared to the points scored as a quarterback. 

What are your thoughts on Jameis Winston?

In five starts, Jameis Winston is averaging 44 pass attempts (at least 41 in every game except for in the blizzard against the Steelers), 336 passing yards, two passing scores, 1.8 interceptions/fumbles, and 11 rushing yards per game. And he added a rushing score. 

That’s good for 20.1 fantasy points per game, which would put him at QB4 over the season trailing only Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts. 

He's going to keep slinging it and has matchups against the Steelers (fewest points allowed to opposing quarterbacks), Chiefs (10th-most), Bengals (third-most), and Dolphins (second-fewest). I might sneak him in against the Bengals, but I wouldn’t get too cute against the Steelers this week or the Dolphins in the championship. 

Last Week’s Most-Chopped Players

Last week, the most chopped players were Cooper Kupp, George Kittle, CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard, Jahmyr Gibbs, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown. Go read Paul Charchian’s article for bidding strategies.

George Kittle won’t be playing in anymore snowstorms, so I would do my best to get him if I don’t have Brock Bowers or Trey McBride. 

Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all end-game players that I want if I can upgrade at the wide receiver position.

Chuba Hubbard and Kenneth Walker are slowing down and have understudies breathing down their necks. I would probably avoid them at this point in the season.

A rare fumble (his only fumble of the year) put Jahmyr Gibbs in the doghouse in a game he was dominating last week. He has an incredible matchup going forward against the Packers (14th-most points allowed), Bills (third-most), Bears (11th-most), and 49ers in the championship (fifth-most). They’ll need all hands on deck with the Eagles breathing down their necks for the first-round bye. 

Breece Hall has a similarly favorable schedule, including the Bills (third-most) in the championship, but it’s difficult to trust the Jets’ offense down the stretch. They might give extended looks to Braelon Allen since they are out of the playoff picture. 

Christian McCaffrey and any other player currently on IR does not need to be owned.