Guillotine Leagues Draft Strategy: Good Players With Brutal September Schedules

For guillotine leaguers, September is the most important month of the year. After half a year of anticipation and speculation, September finally rolls around with four weeks of NFL games.

Of course, guillotine players are hyper-focused on September, because nobody wants the indignity of getting chopped in the first month of the season. Your roster will become increasingly powerful as the season goes along, so surviving September is of paramount importance. It only takes one dud game to end your season.

Also, "September" is an iconic Earth, Wind & Fire song from 1978, and an earworm, so click the link with caution. It was written by lead singer Maurice White and for-hire songwriter Allee Willis, who'd later write the theme song for Friends, "I'll Be There For You," a far more insipid earworm. When it debuted, "September" was an instant sensation, hitting No. 1 on the Billboard R&B charts and No. 8 on the pop chart.

Any discussion of Earth, Wind & Fire needs to have two key disclaimers. First, there's no Oxford comma, which, for erudite readers, will disqualify the band from any further discussion. Second, neither Earth, Wind, nor Fire corresponds to a particular band member. It's an all-encompassing catchphrase for the whole band. Twelve different people played on "September." If they gave everyone a classical element name, they'd run before they got to the horn section. And "Earth, Wind, Fire, Metal, Aether, Air, Stone, Ice, Wood & Gas" doesn't exactly roll off the tongue.

In 2021, Rolling Stone listed "September" as the 65th-best song on their list of the "500 Greatest Songs of All Time."

The song opens with the lyrics, "Do you remember // The twenty-first night of September?". Guillotine players, the night of September 21st will be memorable for you. That night, you'll be following live scoring in the guillotine app, as the Chiefs travel to the Giants for Sunday Night Football. On that night, perhaps you'll need a big game from Travis Kelce to avoid the chopping block.

Or maybe Travis Kelce will have already gotten you chopped weeks earlier.

Let's look at a notable player from every position that has a particularly brutal September stretch to his season, beginning with the aforementioned Travis Kelce.

Guillotine Leagues™ Draft Strategy: Players With Brutal Opening Schedules

Travis Kelce | TE | KC

at LAC, vs PHI, at NYG, vs BAL

Before we talk about Travis Kelce's vicious September schedule, let's acknowledge some of the other elements working against him. He's 35 years old, and the drop-off in his performance last year was tangible. Last year, Kelce was the most-chopped tight end (!) and the 11th most-chopped player at any position. If his production erodes similarly this year, he'll fall outside of the top ten tight ends.

Compounding matters, for the first time in years, Patrick Mahomes has a surplus of viable targets: Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, Rashee Rice, and maybe even rookies Jalen Royals and Brashard Smith. There's a very real chance Kelce's target volume drops significantly.

But also, Kelce has one of the hardest September schedules of any player at any position.

Week 1 at LAC: The Chargers allowed a league-best two touchdowns to tight ends last year.
Week 2 vs PHI: The Eagles allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last year, and held Kelce to 3-39-0 in their Super Bowl win. No tight end topped 73 yards against the Eagles all year.
Week 3 at NYG: New York wasn't good at many things last year, but defending the tight end was one of them. They allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to the position, and no tight end topped 62 yards against them all year.
Week 4 vs BAL: The Ravens defense struggled against tight ends in the first half of last year, but clamped down hard in the second half. From Week 9 onward, the Ravens only allowed per-game averages of 4.6 catches, 39 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game to the entire position.

Bucky Irving | RB | TB

at ATL, at HOU, vs NYJ, vs PHI

At the outset, let me emphasize that I adore Bucky Irving and believe he's as talented a runner as anyone in the league. He's capable of defying some of the difficulties that he'll experience in the opening month.

The loss of elite left tackle Tristan Wirfs is a major blow for Bucky, who'll miss Wirf's blocking. But also, Wirfs is arguably the best pass-blocking left tackle (PFF's No. 1 ranked tackle!) and without Wirfs on the field, Todd Bowles and Josh Grizzard may choose to give extra reps to Rachaad White, a far better pass protector than Irving.

Speaking of Grizzard, the loss of Liam Cohn, now the head coach in Jacksonville, could be significant, particularly since Grizzard doesn't have play-calling experience. It may take some time for Grizzard to adapt to the rigors of his new job.

Week 1 at ATL: The Falcons are a trickier-than-you-think run defense that didn't allow a 100-yard rusher all year. In Irving's two matchups with the Falcons last year, he had 44 yards in both games—although in fairness, those were early-season games before Irving had earned the workhorse role.
Week 2 at HOU: Houston allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to runners last year, and were excellent at defending pass-catching runners, ranking top eight in RB receptions and yards.
Week 3 vs NYJ: In Week 3, Irving gets a reprieve against a middle-of-the-pack Jets run defense, but I'll note that the Jets were awesome against the pass, allowing the seventh-fewest RB receptions and zero receiving touchdowns to the position.
Week 4 vs PHI: Trying to run against DT Jordan Davis is a fool's errand. Last year, the Eagles ranked No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing runners, just 11.9 per game in ESPN scoring. They allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (5) and the fewest receiving touchdowns (0) to the position.

CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL

at PHI, vs NYG, at CHI, vs GB, and dispiriting bonus, at NYJ in Week 5)

With Dak Prescott (who, correspondingly, has a brutal September, btw) back at the helm, I'm optimistic that CeeDee Lamb will return to form in 2025. But it might not happen early in the season. His first five games are arguably the toughest of any player at any position. Four of those five games come against secondaries that ranked in the top 8 against the position last year.

Week 1 at PHI: After Philly's Week 5 bye last year, when cornerback Cooper DeJean was healthy enough to start, the Eagles were the league's best pass defense. From that point forward, only two opposing receivers topped 70 yards, and outside of a wild shootout with Washington in Week 16, opponents averaged just 0.4 wide receiver touchdowns per game.
Week 2 vs NYG: Over the first five weeks of the season, this is Lamb's only neutral matchup—the other four are very tough. The Giants ranked 16th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts last year, and they held Lamb to 2-39-0 in the most recent matchup.
Week 3 at CHI: Last year, no team allowed fewer targets or receptions to wide receivers than the Bears. With all the talent in the Bears secondary, including newly-upped shutdown corner Jaylon Johnson, that probably won't change much. Chicago allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Week 4 vs GB: The Packers secondary proved better without Jaire Alexander last year, finishing as the sixth-best PPR pass defense, allowing the fifth-fewest touchdowns to the position.
SAD BONUS Week 5 vs NYJ: Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are the best cornerback tandem in the league. They combined to allow three touchdowns all year. And as a team, the Jets allowed the second-fewest wide receiver scores.

Geno Smith | QB | LV

at NE, vs LAC, at WAS, vs CHI

Granted, you probably weren't going to start Geno Smith anyway, since his ADP is QB26. But for the quarterback sloughers reading this, here's what you need to know about Smith's September schedule, the toughest of any quarterback.

Week 1 at NE: Last year's Patriots could do only one thing fairly well: play pass defense. They allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards and sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Christian Gonzalez (PFF CB9) is emerging as one of the best young coverage corners. The addition of Carlton Davis (PFF CB25) in free agency will help this year's secondary.
Week 2 vs LAC: The Chargers secondary wasn't elite, but it was good enough to rank eighth in passing yards allowed while holding 10 opponents to zero or one passing touchdown.
Week 3 at WAS: Last year, no team's secondary improved more than the Commanders, vaulting from 32nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks up to sixth best. From Week 4 forward, only four opponents managed more than one touchdown pass.
Week 4 vs CHI: The Bears ranked No. 1 in fantasy points and passing touchdowns allowed, just 17 last year. Only one opposing passer, Jared Goff, managed more than two touchdowns in a game.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Guillotine Leagues Draft Strategy: Good Players With Brutal September Schedules