Welcome to a new season of Guillotine Leagues™!  Last weekend, you got to feel some of the trademark anxiety that you only get from the best way to play season-long fantasy football. 

Last night, some great players who happened to underperform in Week 1 got chopped in your league. And I'm here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your Guillotine LeaguesTM bidding. 

Do you need to make a splashy move in Wednesday's waiver wire? Or should you save your FAAB for a rainy day (more like, a snowy day in December)?

Let's discuss! 

The Biggest Takeaway From Week 1 Guillotine Leagues Chops

As is the case every year, Week 1 was filled with revelations, too many to list individually here.  

But if there's one key takeaway from the season opener, it's this: Even at their elevated prices in Guillotine Leagues™ drafts, rushing quarterbacks are insanely valuable, creating massive advantages for their managers. 

For second-round prices, you got: 

• Josh Allen: 38.8 fantasy points
• Lamar Jackson: 29.4 fantasy points
• Jalen Hurts: 24 fantasy points
• Jayden Daniels: 20 fantasy points

It's awfully hard to get chopped with 20+ points from your quarterback. Those elevated fantasy points absorb dud games elsewhere on your roster—even Xavier Worthy. Watch, as people figure out this Guillotine Leagues™ hack, those four guys will go in Round 1 of drafts. (Yes, you can still create a new Guillotine League after the season has started.)

We also found three mobile quarterbacks who look like steals at their draft positions: 

• Justin Fields: 29.5 fantasy points (ADP Round 7)
• JJ McCarthy: 22.2 fantasy points (ADP Round 12)
• Daniel Jones: 29.5 fantasy points (ADP Round 14!)

The only mobile quarterback who flopped was Bo Nix, scoring just 6.8 points. Despite eight (!) rushes, he managed only 18 rushing yards, almost certainly a fluke.  

Many people sloughed the quarterback position, thinking, "I can get by with Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco, Geno Smith, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or Trevor Lawrence." Gulp, they all scored less than 10.3 points. In some cases (Tua), much less.

Self Evaluation

In Guillotine Leagues™, more than any other way you'll play, you have to be self evaluating constantly. Self-evaluation drives your waiver wire spending decisions, which in turn, defines your season. 

You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you sailed to an easy victory, how repeatable is your success? Did you get flukey performances, especially from players who were low volume? As examples, Aaron Jones, who caught a bomb touchdown; or Isaac TeSlaa, who scored a touchdown despite seeing only three snaps.

If you struggled but survived, do you have high-volume players who'll probably bounce back with better performances next week? Or, are your Week 1 dud players likely to face similar hurdles in Week 2 and beyond?

Injuries are tremendously important at this early stage of the season, because in an 18-team league (17-team, as of yesterday) your bench players are probably awful. If you're down a key contributor, like George Kittle (hammy), Brock Bowers (knee), Drake London (shoulder), Xavier Worthy (dislocated shoulder) or Jauan Jennings (shoulder), you probably need to open your purse strings, even if, philosophically, you prefer not to spend money this early.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a Guillotine League. But I can safely say, the easiest path to a Guillotine League championship is to have a lot of FAAB left after Thanksgiving. 

In short, save your FAAB unless it's necessary. Except for the desperate, your goal in Week 2 is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Later in this article, you'll see recommendations for highly-chopped players, some of whom are likely available in your Guillotine League.

For everyone else, here’s a broad rule of thumb:

• End-game players: These are stalwarts who’ll be in your roster for the rest of the year. Think Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Ashton Jeanty, CeeDee Lamb or Nico Collins. Max your bidding on elite players at $100-$200. At this early stage, no more, unless you’re already truly desperate.
• Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters every week but will probably get replaced by November when you need better talent. $10-$40. Be careful here. Throwing down $40 twice a week will drain your funds in short order, and these mid-tier guys aren't part of your end-game plans.
• Low-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5. 

Seasoned Guillotine players know to save FAAB, so if you're in a league with veterans, you might actually see some decent values in Week 1.  

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 1

(Note: I'm not including Xavier Worthy, who would have been the No. 1 chopee, because he's likely to miss a month or more, which makes him borderline unrosterable.)

10. CIN QB JOE BURROW (14.1% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: NA
• Upcoming schedule: JAX, at MIN, at DEN
• end-game player? NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $40
• Note:  Seven total yards of offense in the second half is … disturbing. Almost certainly, the Bengals will rebound next week against Jacksonville, and this opening day stunner will be long forgotten.

9. DAL QB DAK PRESCOTT (14.5% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: NA
• Upcoming schedule: NYG, at CHI, GB
• end-game player? NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $5
• Note: Dak played better than his boxscore would suggest, with just 188 yards and zero scores. But he looked pretty poised and he adroitly picked apart Eagles cornerback Adoree' Jackson.

8. MIN TE T.J. HOCKENSON (14.7% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 56/100
• Upcoming schedule: ATL, CIN, at PIT
• end-game player? YES?
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
• Note: I expected J.J. McCarthy to post a low-volume game against the Bears, but only 20 passes is really low volume. It's hard to feed any of your receivers with so few passes. Fortunately for Hockenson, McCarthy showed real promise in the second half, making me feel a bit better about Hockenson's prospects despite the growing pains that McCarthy will endure.

7. BAL TE MARK ANDREWS (15% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 28/100.
• Upcoming schedule: CLE, DET, at KC
• end-game player? NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $20
• Note: On Sunday night, the Ravens were scoring at will with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson only threw 19 passes. It was a brutal turn of events for Andrews, who seemed like a safe start, particularly with Isaiah Likely out.  Andrews will face the Browns this week. They allowed a touchdown to Noah Fant last Sunday and Andrews scored against them in both matchups last year.

6. DET RB DAVID MONTGOMERY (15.2% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 57/100
• Upcoming schedule: CHI, at BAK, CLE
• end-game player? NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $35
• Note: Lions new offensive line looked bad to my eyes, and ranked 27th by PFF. Montgomery is a more effective producer when the Lions have the lead, and they're grinding down opponents.

5. DEN QB BO NIX (14.3% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: NA
• Upcoming schedule: at IND, at LAC, CIN
• end-game player? YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $25
• Note: I didn't hate Bo Nix's Week 1 game as much as others, and I expect Nix to rebound this week. Denver's pass blocking was good, with a No. 2 PFF ranking. He had a very healthy eight designed runs and that'll almost always yield far more than last week's 18 yards. His upcoming schedule seems favorable, including next week against an Indy team that wasn't challenged in the opener.

4. HOU WR NICO COLLINS (15.4% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 45/100 (that's WR58 in utilization score)
• Upcoming schedule: TB, at JAX, TEN
• end-game player? YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $65
• Note: I'd love to start a discussion about Nico Collins by describing how great he can be. But, the lead story is Houston's brutal offensive line. The line was already incredibly thin and then suffered two injuries last week, including a season-ender for Tytus Howard. PFF ranked the Texans 29th in pass blocking in Week 1, and honestly, it's generous. And that's a worry for the long-term consistency of Nico Collins, a guy who can be great, obviously, but could suffer the ups and downs of Stroud behind that line. In Guillotine Leagues, we value consistency above all else, and I'm not sure the Houston offense can provide it.

3. WAS WR TERRY MCLAURIN (15.5% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 44/100 (that's WR 60 in utilization score)
• Upcoming schedule: at GB, LV, at ATL
• end-game player? YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $45
• Note: McLaurin’s slow opener might be because of him missing a large chunk of training camp and the preseason in a contract dispute. While it may still take him time to ramp up, he does have great matchups against the Packers (possible TNF shootout), and the Raiders and Falcons (both beatable defenses). If you don’t overspend, he could be good in the short term.

2. CIN WR JA'MARR CHASE (16.0% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 48/100 (That's WR52!)
• Upcoming schedule: JAX, at MIN, at DEN
• end-game player? YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $200
• Note: After the Bengals offense was able to only generate seven yards of offense in the second half, the consensus 1.01 got stuck with a 2-catch, 26-yard game. Most likely, this will be the worst game of Ja'Marr Chase's season. Nobody would be surprised to see him drop 25 fantasy points on Jacksonville at home next week. I'm recommending a max $200 bid on principle. He'll probably go for double that price. But it's awfully early to blow more than $200 when you'll need every dollar in November and December. 

1. PHI WR A.J. BROWN (16.2% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 23/100 (WR85!)
• Upcoming schedule: at KC, LAR, at TB
• end-game player? NO?
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $85
• Note: Despite being a great player, A.J. Brown has been an oddball Guillotine League asset throughout his time in Philadelphia. Part of the problem is the Eagles offense can run effectively through a half-dozen guys. Some games, the ball simply doesn't go his way. Last year, Brown posted three stone-cold dud games, similar to last Thursday's: 2-36-0, 1-10-0 and 2-14-0. Still, he's valuable asset, of course, who could have boom games against pretty much any team.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine League usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

It's a bad week to need help at running back. There's pretty much nothing to scrounge among this caliber of player. Instead, you'll want to bid more on the running backs who got chopped on Monday night. 

NYG QB Daniel Jones—Recommended bidding: $15
As Kendall Valenzuela noted, Jones just became the first quarterback this century to lead a scoring drive in every possession! Just like we expected. How badly did America whiff on Jones? The only quarterback drafted lower than Cam Ward was Jones. He won't usually get two opportunities for goal-line sneak touchdowns, but his seven designed rushing attempts were very promising. Plus, he threw the ball extremely well. The Colts suddenly feel like they've got a lot of receiving options. He could be very good again next week in Dallas before the schedule turns tougher against the Chiefs and Chargers. 

KC RB Kareem Hunt—Recommended bidding: $0
To my eyes, Hunt looked awful on Friday night, but sadly, he matched Isiah Pacheco's five carries and had almost as many snaps. I can't recommend him, but at the same time, the Chiefs' hesitation to use Pacheco could mean a surprising amount of work for Hunt.

PIT RB Kenneth Gainwell—Recommended bidding: $1
As he's wont to do, Arthur Smith buried a promising rookie runner into the molten core of the Earth. You'll recall, Bijan Robinson was the eighth overall pick in his draft class. With Smith as his offensive coordinator, Bijan was lightly used for 10(!) weeks. He didn't score a rushing touchdown until Week 8. He topped 62 rushing yards just twice in those 10 weeks. So, in a not-too-surprising move, Kaleb Johnson saw the field for only one carry, while Gainwell got 7 carries and 4 targets. 

KC WR Hollywood Brown—Recommended bidding: $30
We can't rule out Hollywood Brown's amazing 16-target performance as a one-week wonder. With Rashee Rice still out for five more weeks and Xavier Worthy trying to rehab a dislocated shoulder, Brown will remain atop the pecking order for Patrick Mahomes' targets. He'll face the Eagles this week and any matchup against Adoree' Jackson could be a feast. He gave up 103 yards in his coverage last week, more than any other player.

KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster—Recommended bidding: $5
Boring old JuJu Smith-Schuster is the perfect example of a player who can be uniquely helpful in Guillotine Leagues. Last week, he caught all five of his targets for 55 yards. Those 10.5 points were enough to keep you alive. As of this writing, it's unclear how much time Xavier Worthy will miss. But for whatever that duration is, Smith-Schuster is a viable flex option for your team.

KC WR Tyquan Thornton—Recommended bidding: $0
For as long as Worthy and Jalen Royals remain out, Thornton will get starters’ minutes for Andy Reid. He's a plausible deep dart throw for this week against the Eagles, if you're in a pinch. Last Thursday, the Eagles secondary didn't look remotely like the version we saw last season. 

NE WR Kayshon Boutte—Recommended bidding: $10
I mentioned Boutte multiple times during the offseason and he remains one of my favorite sleepers. Going back to last year, here are his four last games: 

• Week 16, 2024: 5-95-1
• Week 17, 2024: 4-28-0
• Week 18, 2024: 7-117-1
• Week 1, 2025: 6-103-0

He's a former high school star who ran into countless (self-induced) issues at LSU before being forced to turn pro early. But now in his third season, he's proving he's ready to be a full-time starter with the confidence of a young, improving passer. Plus, the game script in Patriots games looks to be very pass-heavy.

NO TE Juwan Johnson—Recommended bidding $30
The highest scoring Week 1 tight end was … Juwan Johnson. And it wasn't a fluke. He led the position in targets and yards. He also finished No. 1 in the Utilization Report, with a staggering 97/100 score. Spencer Rattler is likely to continue to use his tight end copiously, and the Saints will be in a passing game script often. Because Week 1 was a disaster for many tight ends—Kittle, Hockenson, Andrews, David Njoku, Evan Engram—many of you need to add depth at the position. You're unlikely to find a better option off the waiver wire, and that makes Johnson worth paying for.

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