
Paul Charchian identifies the 10 most chopped players in Guillotine Leagues heading into Week 5, offering free agent bidding advice on them and others.
I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding.
I spent much of the offseason urging Guillotine League™ drafters to avoid rookies because of their historically inconsistent starts to their careers—even for eventual Hall of Fame-level players.
This year, almost every rookie has been somewhere between invisible (Colston Loveland, Tre Harris, Isaac TeSlaa), bad (Kaleb Johnson) or very inconsistent (Jacory Croskey-Merritt ).
The only two rookies who've been dependable in all four games are Emeka Egbuka and Tyler Warren. Egbuka has scored or topped 85 yards in every game. Warren has topped seven catches and 70 yards in three of four games.
Overwhelmingly, avoiding rookies was a great draft-day game plan. But now, as we enter October, we're seeing rookies start to get entrenched into roles that can make them reliable Guillotine starters.
October is when many rookies make their move into consistent production. Here are some October examples from last year:
Running back is the least complicated position for rookies to assimilate and we're starting to see the youngsters make an impact.
Also, be sure to listen to the CHOP Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.
Over the course of this story, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.
If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.
If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.
There’s no single way to win a Guillotine League. But I can safely say, the clearest path to a Guillotine League championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB. Except for the truly desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.
So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:
I'll note that I've removed Malik Nabers from the list since he won't be playing again, sadly. If you're curious, he was the fifth-most chopped player.
10. DET TE Sam LaPorta (10.7% chop rate)
9. PHI WR DeVonta Smith (11.7% chop rate)
8. DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (11.8% chop rate)
7. CIN WR Ja'Marr Chase (13.3% chop rate)
6. LAC WR Ladd McConkey (14.2% chop rate)
5. BAL RB Derrick Henry (14.6% chop rate)
4. PHI WR A.J. Brown (16.3% chop rate)
3. PIT RB Jaylen Warren (16.5% chop rate)
2. DET RB David Montgomery (18% chop rate)
1. BAL QB Lamar Jackson (18.9% chop rate)
These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider them for Guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.
It's a rare week with a ton of running back prospects who you can acquire. Hopefully you heeded last week's advice on Woody Marks, because he's likely gone at this point.
NYG QB Jaxson Dart—Charch recommends $5
Dart was probably picked up last week, but in case he wasn't, you should feel heartened by what we saw on Sunday. Specifically, his 10 (!) designed runs. Like most rookies, he's going to have inconsistent passing production early in his career, especially without Malik Nabers. But, his rushing could/should even out those boxscores and provide serious upside. His bye isn't until Week 14, which means he'll be an option to help you through bye weeks.
TEN RB Tyjae Spears—Charch recommends $5
This happened in one of my Guillotine Leagues: Spears was drafted by someone, but that team got chopped at some point in September—honestly I don't know when. But because Spears doesn't have any stats, his name didn't go to the top of any stat lists, and people just missed him. and he was available for the taking. He walks into a timeshare, but he's got fresh legs and that will be evident later in the season.
CHI RB Kyle Monangai—Charch recommends $1
D'Andre Swift continues to look completely pedestrian, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. He's found his way to scores in two of four games, which has masked his otherwise mundane results. But Ben Johnson knows Swift ain't "The Guy." In limited action, Kyle Monangai hasn't looked much better, but change could be coming to Chicago.
ARI RB Emari Demercado—Charch recommends $10
Demercado is on the open market (that's for you, Jorge!) and you should pick him up, both as a handcuff to Trey Benson, but also as a plausible emergency PPR helper. Benson can catch, but he's not as fluid as Demercado, who has natural hands. Demercado ran 17 routes last week, only five fewer than Benson. And Demercado crushed Benson on long down-and-distance usage, with 13 snaps, compared to Benson's 1. You're hoping for an Austin Ekeler-type role for Demercado.
BAL RB Justice Hill—Charch recommends $5
In all probability, Derrick Henry is going to be fine, and we'll see him rumbling through would-be tacklers next weekend. But in this moment of time, Henry has fumbled in three of four games and failed to top 50 yards in three straight. In the league's first bye week, Hill is a semi-viable emergency starter with 10-point PPR expectations against Houston. The Ravens defense is so battered, late-game scripts are favoring Hill over Henry. Hill has seen increasing targets in all four games.
NO RB Kendre Miller—Charch recommends $40
Kendre Miller just played his best NFL game by a mile, and it could kickstart a chain of events that leaves Miller as the Saints lead runner. For a guy who's never distinguished himself, he was the Saints best runner last Sunday, looking shockingly slippery—better than his box score (11-65-1) suggests. Per Next Gen Stats, he broke 5 tackles! I didn't physically rub my eyes in disbelief, but metaphorically I did. His impressive play could trigger the Saints to trade Alvin Kamara (hello, KC!), which would put Miller into a lead role.
CAR WR Jalen Coker—Charch recommends $1
Jalen Coker is eligible to come off IR (quad) this week, although this is on the early side of his original timetable. But the team could hasten his return due to injuries to David Moore and Xavier Legette. At full health, Coker should be the team's No. 2 receiving option, ahead of Hunter Renfrow. If Coker isn't ready yet, rookie Jimmy Horn Jr. will likely get an expanded role.
CLE WR Isaiah Bond—Charch recommends $0
Cedric Tillman has already been ruled out of next week's game with a hamstring injury, which should provide starter's minutes to rookie Isaiah Bond. He saw a team-high six targets last week, and posted career highs in receptions and yards. Coming up, it's a tough matchup with Minnesota this week, but Bond has more favorable matchups down the road against the Steelers, Dolphins and Patriots.
TB WR Chris Godwin—Charch recommends $3
I was shocked to see Chris Godwin get 10 targets in his first game back. Granted, he managed only 38 yards on those 10 targets, but with Mike Evans out, he could see similar usage next week. Anything close to 10-target workload should result in starter-worthy numbers. A word of caution, three of the Bucs' next four games are on the road, and then the Bucs go on bye.
NYG WRs Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson—Charch recommends $1 and $5, respectively
I'm already dreading talking about Malik Nabers next summer, since I'll be forced to discuss how dangerous it is to draft players coming off major knee surgery in Guillotine Leagues. But for the moment, it brings opportunity to the next men up in New York, Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson. As an outside receiver, Slayton will run more of Nabers' lost routes, which could put him in a position to find high-value targets. Robinson will be usable in spot situations against struggling slot cornerbacks. I'll note that the Giants have a brutal schedule for the next five games, including the Broncos and the Eagles twice.
MIA WR Malik Washington—Charch recommends $5
With Tyreek Hill's tragic (and hopefully not career-ending) knee injury, Malik Washington likely moves into a starter's role. He had already been getting 25-35 snaps per game before the injury. That number will increase. Washington has a lot of slot experience, which will help him walk into Hill's role. The Dolphins’ upcoming schedule isn't great, including a sneaky-tough game against Carolina this week. His next four opponents all rank top-10 in passing fantasy points allowed.
MIA TE Darren Waller—Charch recommends $5
Whaaa?! In his first game back from a year-long retirement, Waller scored twice, including a towering touchdown over Sauce Gardner on Monday night. Waller's size and athleticism makes him an ideal end zone target. But, before you overreact, know that Waller ran only 10 routes in his debut. Assuredly, that number will go up, but be aware that he could see high variance as he reacclimates to the NFL.