Patrick Mahomes Miss the Playoffs, Plus More Week 15 Guillotine Leagues™️ Notes

I know the media writ large has already belabored the point, and, sorry to Colts fans, but the last month has been the worst possible runout for a franchise. To go from a virtual playoff lock and a potential Super Bowl contender to a team that may require years to get back to where it was in mid-October is enough to give me whiplash. But a similar thing happened to me over the weekend.

I had been cruising to a Guillotine Leagues™ championship in one of my leagues. But in quick succession, I lost J.K. Dobbins, Emeka Egbuka turned into a pumpkin and both Drake Maye and TreVeyon Henderson went on bye. And, the coup de grace, Jalen Hurts, and his historic "two turnovers on the same play" outing put the final nail in the coffin that was my season. But after Monday night and the news since, I had a few more thoughts as we head into Week 15.

So, Philip Rivers was the BEST Option, Eh?

Of course, who am I to judge an organization for making tough decisions? I'm just a nerd with an internet connection. And, trust me, I get the idea. Philip Rivers runs the same offense as HC Shane Steichen. He and Steichen talk regularly. The point of bringing in a guy who knows the offense isn't lost on me. However, when I look at Rivers' last time in the saddle, I don't come away with much confidence for the Colts.

EPA per Dropback: 0.10, 13th (out of 36 qualifying QBs - min. 220 dropbacks)

Air Yards per Att.: 7.1, 27th

Completion Percentage Over Expected: 0.7%, 22nd

Remember, this was back in 2020! I could understand hoping Rivers could prop up the offense if he had gone out at or near the top in any efficiency metric. But racking up the ninth-most sacks and then aging a half-decade doesn't give me any confidence.

And again, I'm not questioning the Colts. But it does make me wonder about the future of QB development. Because if the Colts couldn't find some third-stringer on a practice squad somewhere better than a 44-year-old retiree with an active Hall of Fame bid, the league might have a QB development problem on its hands.

Progress Isn't Linear

The nucleus of this thought came on Sunday while watching the Titans-Browns game, but the whole Colts discussion we just had brought another to mind.

Growth takes time.

We always advocate for letting rookies get reps, especially the first-year players at the QB position. But you don't just get better by playing more. Just look at J.J. McCarthy (no shade to Vikings' fans, I'm just saying). Sometimes things just click, which happened for Shedeur Sanders last Sunday.

Passing Success Rate: 29.9% (before Week 14), 43.2% (in Week 14)

Sack Rate: 8.5%, 4.3%

Of course, facing the defense allowing the ninth-most PPG to QBs helps. But Cam Ward played well, even with Myles Garrett and Co. in his face on 48.3% of his dropbacks. Ward even had an Anthony-Richardson-like (complimentary) play where he tossed a defender off him to avoid a sack. Now, to be clear, I'm not expecting Sanders to do the same this weekend. The same goes for Ward. Their trajectories are like starting a fire. They'll need a few flashes before the flame stays lit.

Let's Just Enjoy the Chaos

We have (potentially) no Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.

No Lamar Jackson.

No Joe Burrow.

I keep seeing these discussions harping on the possibility of a playoff race without some of the biggest names in the sport. Good! Well, Burrow having something of an existential crisis is a concern. But look at the landscape of the league going into our championship runs.

Teams with a +90% Chance (to Make the Playoffs): 10

Teams with a +50% Chance: 5

Teams with a +10% Chance: 5

Almost half the league has either a lock for a spot in the postseason or a shot to make it. We've even got a couple others kicking around in the "so you're saying there's a chance" range—I see you, Carolina and Kansas City. Said another way, motivation will be less of a concern for some of our stars. Accordingly, we should be able to trust our starters with a lot of the chaos, creating one of the better January series of football we've seen in a while.

Patrick Mahomes Miss the Playoffs, Plus More Week 15 Guillotine Leagues™️ Notes

So, Philip Rivers was the BEST Option, Eh?

Go FantasyLife+

Progress Isn't Linear

Let's Just Enjoy the Chaos

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